5-2 yesterday, 15-9 overall. hard to believe mets score 4 in the top of the first and game still stays under 7-. course, if this was easy we'd all be retired. for today:
chi/mil under 8: man, where was i yesterday with this play? the cubbies are stinking the joint up - 20 runs in the last 9 gms, of course o'fer in that stretch. brewers 6-15 to the under at home. woods has been solid vs mil, 0-6 under lifetime with a 3.22 era over 58.2 innings, and his propensity to be a little wild probably a plus against the free-swinging brewers. also sports a solid 2.35 road era this year. quevedo pitched well in his only start against the cubbies last year, 1 er in 7 innings, and has gone under 5 of his last 6 with a home era of 1.77 this year.
cin/stl over 9-: mainly a play on home plate ump cederstrom, 7-2 over so far this year and a sparkling 51-22 over the last 3 yrs. both of these pitchers haver a tendency to walk batters and cederstrom is only going to compound this problem. acevedo was shelled in his only two starts vs the cards last year, stephenson 5.45 era over 39.2 innings vs reds. see a lot of baserunners today.
phi/az over 10: stick with this one one more time. philly now 14-7 over away, az 14-6 over at home. wolf has been inconsistent, a dangerous condition given the state of the phillies' bullpen. anderson is the weak link in the snake rotation, and has a 9.17 era over 17.2 innings vs philly.
pit/hou under 10: another play i was snoozin' on yesterday. pit now 4-16 under on the road this year and under 10 of last 13. hou under 9 of last 11. teams under 5 of 6 mtgs this year. neither pitcher anything special, but neither a liability either. home plate ump buckner is 7-3 to the over this year but i think that is just a statistical anomaly as he is historically a fairly neutral ump and is still calling over 63% strikes. i'll probably play the pirates to hedge this play as i keep expecting mlicki to have a meltdown.
kc/cle under 9: i really butchered this matchup yesterday, passing on the under in the first game and then making a bad play on the over in the second. kc 2-10-1 under last 13; cle 3-9 under last 12. suppan and baez both 1-5 under last 6 and both are pitchers with relatively high so's and walks. lance barksdale behind the plate should help both of them. barksdale was a 2nd yr ump when mlb went on their strike zone kick last season. he made the adjustment and has been pretty consistently calling over 63% strikes with a 2.33 k/bb over the last two seasons. he's 2-7 to the under this year.
ana/cws over 9-: probably going against the grain with these two pitchers but lots of factors point to runs today. team are 14-5-1 over last 20 mtgs and both hit lefties well, thus substandard career numbers for both pitchers vs opponent - washburn 6.15 era over 26.1 innings; buehrle 5.4o era over 20 innings. hope is that home plate ump john shulock, 7-2 over this year, will keep both pitchers behind in the count with expected results. sox bullpen still on the dive as of yesterday.
tex/det over 9-: another contrarian play but the way i see it, both teams teams starting pitchers that are not likely to last past the sixth and both bullpens are really struggling. greisinger didn't fool the rangers last time out and hard to see what difference a week will make. ump neutral but not likely to help either pitcher much. tigers hitting lefties well at home and texas bats starting to come around a little. i foresee plenty of scoring opportunities.
maybe one or two more, maybe not. g/l today.
chi/mil under 8: man, where was i yesterday with this play? the cubbies are stinking the joint up - 20 runs in the last 9 gms, of course o'fer in that stretch. brewers 6-15 to the under at home. woods has been solid vs mil, 0-6 under lifetime with a 3.22 era over 58.2 innings, and his propensity to be a little wild probably a plus against the free-swinging brewers. also sports a solid 2.35 road era this year. quevedo pitched well in his only start against the cubbies last year, 1 er in 7 innings, and has gone under 5 of his last 6 with a home era of 1.77 this year.
cin/stl over 9-: mainly a play on home plate ump cederstrom, 7-2 over so far this year and a sparkling 51-22 over the last 3 yrs. both of these pitchers haver a tendency to walk batters and cederstrom is only going to compound this problem. acevedo was shelled in his only two starts vs the cards last year, stephenson 5.45 era over 39.2 innings vs reds. see a lot of baserunners today.
phi/az over 10: stick with this one one more time. philly now 14-7 over away, az 14-6 over at home. wolf has been inconsistent, a dangerous condition given the state of the phillies' bullpen. anderson is the weak link in the snake rotation, and has a 9.17 era over 17.2 innings vs philly.
pit/hou under 10: another play i was snoozin' on yesterday. pit now 4-16 under on the road this year and under 10 of last 13. hou under 9 of last 11. teams under 5 of 6 mtgs this year. neither pitcher anything special, but neither a liability either. home plate ump buckner is 7-3 to the over this year but i think that is just a statistical anomaly as he is historically a fairly neutral ump and is still calling over 63% strikes. i'll probably play the pirates to hedge this play as i keep expecting mlicki to have a meltdown.
kc/cle under 9: i really butchered this matchup yesterday, passing on the under in the first game and then making a bad play on the over in the second. kc 2-10-1 under last 13; cle 3-9 under last 12. suppan and baez both 1-5 under last 6 and both are pitchers with relatively high so's and walks. lance barksdale behind the plate should help both of them. barksdale was a 2nd yr ump when mlb went on their strike zone kick last season. he made the adjustment and has been pretty consistently calling over 63% strikes with a 2.33 k/bb over the last two seasons. he's 2-7 to the under this year.
ana/cws over 9-: probably going against the grain with these two pitchers but lots of factors point to runs today. team are 14-5-1 over last 20 mtgs and both hit lefties well, thus substandard career numbers for both pitchers vs opponent - washburn 6.15 era over 26.1 innings; buehrle 5.4o era over 20 innings. hope is that home plate ump john shulock, 7-2 over this year, will keep both pitchers behind in the count with expected results. sox bullpen still on the dive as of yesterday.
tex/det over 9-: another contrarian play but the way i see it, both teams teams starting pitchers that are not likely to last past the sixth and both bullpens are really struggling. greisinger didn't fool the rangers last time out and hard to see what difference a week will make. ump neutral but not likely to help either pitcher much. tigers hitting lefties well at home and texas bats starting to come around a little. i foresee plenty of scoring opportunities.
maybe one or two more, maybe not. g/l today.
