have some time this rainy sunday morning so i thought i would post up a couple of overs i intend to play today that go against the recent trends of the teams playing. i expect the long ball to play a role in both games:
cws/det over 10: despite the current series, these teams have played over 9 of 13 this year. starters' era's are pretty ugly - garland 5.58 away, 7.05 day, 5.59 last 3, 8.38 career vs det; bernero 8.44 home, 5.11 day, 9.82 last 3, 5.95 career vs cws. garland has been more prone to the hr in day games, allowing 8 dingers in 37 innings. he won both starts vs detroit this year (both over), but gave up 10 er in 9.1 innings, and gave up 3 hr's in 4.1 innings in his last start in detroit on 4/10. bernero has allowed 6 hr's in 14.1 innings over his last 3 starts. in 2 starts vs the white sox this year (also both overs), he's allowed 8 er's over 12 innings, including 4 hr's in 4 innings his last time out on 7/2. home plate ump gibson favors the under, but he is 3-0 to the over in all 3 white sox games he's called this year.
ana/kc over 9: ortiz has strong numbers overall and during the day, but has allowed 19 hr's over 75 away innings and has a career 5.63 era vs kc. no need to itemize asencio's numbers, they're horrible all around, highlighted by a 9.70 home era fueled by 17 bb's and 7 hr's in 21.1 innings. kc is 21-9 to the over against rh starters at home , and an interesting weather stat at kauffman stadium has the royals a striking 27-4 to the over the last 3 years in games played in clear conditions with the wind blowing right to left. go figure. home plate ump rippley has been a decent over ump in years past and has gone over in 6 of the last 8 games he's been behind the plate. what i like more is his average of 2.6 hr/g this year. ana closer percival out is a bonus.
solid road favorites in both games helps the likelihood of both games going full 18 frames.
also today will play nym over as espoused by kcwolf and ndnfan. will also go with sf under with mark hirschbeck behind the plate. although he's rattled off a few overs lately, 4-14 to the under just has to be played. fwiw, hirschbeck is 1-5 under with reuter on the mound, 0-3-1 under with sf the last 2 years, and 1-3-1 under with the rockies the last 2 years.
gl to everyone today.
cws/det over 10: despite the current series, these teams have played over 9 of 13 this year. starters' era's are pretty ugly - garland 5.58 away, 7.05 day, 5.59 last 3, 8.38 career vs det; bernero 8.44 home, 5.11 day, 9.82 last 3, 5.95 career vs cws. garland has been more prone to the hr in day games, allowing 8 dingers in 37 innings. he won both starts vs detroit this year (both over), but gave up 10 er in 9.1 innings, and gave up 3 hr's in 4.1 innings in his last start in detroit on 4/10. bernero has allowed 6 hr's in 14.1 innings over his last 3 starts. in 2 starts vs the white sox this year (also both overs), he's allowed 8 er's over 12 innings, including 4 hr's in 4 innings his last time out on 7/2. home plate ump gibson favors the under, but he is 3-0 to the over in all 3 white sox games he's called this year.
ana/kc over 9: ortiz has strong numbers overall and during the day, but has allowed 19 hr's over 75 away innings and has a career 5.63 era vs kc. no need to itemize asencio's numbers, they're horrible all around, highlighted by a 9.70 home era fueled by 17 bb's and 7 hr's in 21.1 innings. kc is 21-9 to the over against rh starters at home , and an interesting weather stat at kauffman stadium has the royals a striking 27-4 to the over the last 3 years in games played in clear conditions with the wind blowing right to left. go figure. home plate ump rippley has been a decent over ump in years past and has gone over in 6 of the last 8 games he's been behind the plate. what i like more is his average of 2.6 hr/g this year. ana closer percival out is a bonus.
solid road favorites in both games helps the likelihood of both games going full 18 frames.
also today will play nym over as espoused by kcwolf and ndnfan. will also go with sf under with mark hirschbeck behind the plate. although he's rattled off a few overs lately, 4-14 to the under just has to be played. fwiw, hirschbeck is 1-5 under with reuter on the mound, 0-3-1 under with sf the last 2 years, and 1-3-1 under with the rockies the last 2 years.
gl to everyone today.
