sunday totals

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loophole

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3-0-1 yestrday as tor/bos gets stuck on 9 for the push; overall now 18-14. two early plays:

phi/atl over 9: two shaky arms take the mound today. duckworth wildly inconsistent last year finished w/ era well over 5, leading to overs in 7 of last 9 starts. now in first start off the dl. last season, only start at turner field yielded 4 runs on 6 hits in 4.1 inn. shane reynolds was cut in comeback attempt w/ hou this spring after he couldn't bust 85 mph on the radar gun. he somehow threw 5 scoreless innings vs the expos in san juan in his only start this year. he shouldn't be so lucky vs the phillies, who have had hot bats on the road, over 7 of 8. hp ump poncino isn't going to help either one of these guys behind the plate.


tb/bal over 9-: rays 12-4 over this year; o's 10-6 over; teams over 4 of 5 this year. pitching matchup produces some horrendous numbers - bierbrodt era 11.37 this year, 6.95 career during the day, 6.10 in two career starts vs the o's (both in tampa!). daal 8.04 era this year, 5.38 career duing the day, and 11.57 in two career starts vs the rays. eddings has been an under ump during most of his career though not so far this season. even if he expands the k zone today it shouldn't matter.


looking at some others.
 
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loophole

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also:

sea/ana over 8-: sea over 5 of 7 road games, ana over 7 of 8 @ home, but mainly riding the streak that these teams have now gone over nine games in a row in anaheim. wind out to left @ 9 mph. playing over despite meals behind the plate, an ump with a consistently large strike zone. franklin has a 5.57 career day era but has put up decent numbers vs anaheim at edison field, which will put me also playing the mariners as a nice dog in a hedge-like scenario.
 
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ndnfan

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Loophole.....I'm personally not playing any totals today, but think you're on the right side on all the one's you've listed.

A few more notes on that Anaheim Over: I think if there's ever a time to play Washburn over, or against him is when he's pitching in small ballparks, or when the winds blowing out or when Anaheim's playing during the day. Washburn is a notorious flyball pitcher who ranks towards the bottom in the Majors every season in groundball/flyball ratio, so when you can catch him in one of these instances, you have value. Today, like you said the wind looks to be blowing out, plus the ball carries much better at Edison during the day than it does at night.

Good luck today and Happy Easter :)

-ndnfan
 
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loophole

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thanks for the note on washburn, ndnfan. don't blame you for not playing totals on getaway day, it gets a little screwy sometimes.

ps - put in a late over play in the cle/cws game yesterday when i decided to watch the game on the tube. i knew the indians had about 6 or 7 starters hitting under the mendoza line, but i wasn't prepared for how shoddily they handled the ball around the field. my old softball team took better care of the ball. it seems simple fundamentals are lacking on the team. what's up with that?
 
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giantfandave

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like the overs on tampa & pha

like the overs on tampa & pha

duckworth in his rookie year last year was 8-9 with a 5.41 era, and now coming off a rehab where he has'nt thrown more than 75 pitches. as for poncino he was 20-11 over last year and is 3-1 over this year while allowing 8.8 bb's per game.


as you mentioned with beerbutt, along with the high era this guy has not made it past 5 innings and is avg 21 men on base per 9 innings pitched. tampa's bats looking ok too, scoring 15 runs in the first 2 of this series while as a team are allowing 6+ over their last 5 games.

looks like 2 good overs
good luck
 
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loophole

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last two (i think)

last two (i think)

chi/pit under 9: laid off of this play @ 8-, mainly because fogg has an inexplicable 6.10 career era in day games, but @ 9 i'm willing to risk it. estes 3.50 era thus far t/y, 3.79 career vs pit and 3.86 in pnc park. fogg 3.66 t/y and 3.60 career vs cubbies. stiff wind blowing in from r/c and marquez a solid under ump.


fla/nym over 7: going with the over between these two again today even though a little luck involved with yesterday's over winner. it was the move down to 7 that got me - just seems too low for this matchup. these two matched up ten days ago in miami and the game carried an 8 total and produced 7 runs, in spite of the fact that the mets have gone under all eight road games. beckett ok but carries a 5.06 career era vs the mets, 5.73 in shea. glavine 3.82 career vs the marlins; i'd take that today, as the combo of glavine with hohn behind the plate could be tough. but marlins over 6 of 10 on the road t/y, mets over 5 of 8 at home, and teams have gone over 6 of last 8 meetings at shea, all larger numbers than this.
 
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IE

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floyd and piazza get day off today.....

Florida NY Mets
Pos Player HR RBI AVG. Pos Player HR RBI AVG.
CF Pierre, Juan 0 6 .317 2B Alomar, Roberto 0 5 .294
2B Castillo, Luis 0 5 .310 CF Cedeno, Roger 1 2 .164
C Rodriguez, Ivan 3 14 .263 3B Wigginton, Ty 2 5 .267
RF Encarnacion, Juan 2 11 .286 1B Vaughn, Mo 2 9 .240
3B Lowell, Mike 4 16 .315 LF Shinjo, Tsuyoshi 0 1 .235
1B Lee, Derrek 3 15 .250 RF Burnitz, Jeromy 3 6 .274
SS Gonzalez, Alex 4 14 .333 C Wilson, Vance 0 4 .214
LF Williams, Gerald 0 1 .000 SS Sanchez, Rey 0 4 .111
P Beckett, Josh (1-2, 4.05) P Glavine, Tom (2-1, 2.91)
 
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