Posted in Daily Report: NFL WEEK #15:
Jacksonville at New England (-6.5)
Total -- 35
BET ON CATEGORY C TEAMS ANGLE APPLIES TO JAX
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO JAX
Comments: It's hard to see points being scored in this game. New England's defense has been spectacular at home, while the resurgent Jags will get a cold dose of reality this week, after a string of home warm weather games. Look for Jags to have trouble moving the ball and the Pats to grind it out and spend the clock. Snow and freezing temperatures are forecast. Since a low score is expected, this gives some extra value to betting the dog in the quarters, so I'll take the Jags getting points on each quarter, combined with the UNDER.
RECOMMENDATION:
UNDER 35
1Q JAX +.5
2Q JAX +3
3Q JAX +.5
4Q JAX +.5
1H JAX +3.5
Pittsburgh at New York Jets (-3)
Total -- 40
OVER ANGLE APPLIES TO NYJ
Comments: Here's another northeastern game where weather could be a significant factor. Looks inviting to take the dog plus the points. Both teams' seasons are about to end, but the Steelers played with more heart last week, while the Jets offense looked awful in Buffalo. Trouble is, Pittsburgh has been far too inconsistent to bet this season, and I don't think there's quit enough value here to justify a wager.
NO PLAY
Dallas at Washington Redskins (pick)
Total -- 36
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO WAS
Big game for Cowboys which must win here to stop the slide -- just one cover in last five games. Throw out the Cowboys' domination of this series in recent years -- the roles are now reversed with Dallas the playoff contender and Washington playing for pride. Big problem for Dallas is -- their offense has been horrific on the road. Cowboys scored just TEN points in their last three road games combined. Redskins lost a series of close games by a margin of just 8 points, then destroyed the Giants last week. Good opportunity for them to close out the season on a strong note here against a Cowboys team that is losing momentum. Unfavorable weather could also hurt the Cowboys in this game.
RECOMMENDATION:
WAS (pick)
San Francisco at Cincinnati (-2.5)
Total -- 41.5
DOUBLE OVER ANGLE APPLIES
RECOMMENDATION: I've already bet this game UNDER early in the week, at 42 -- going against the trend which suggests the contrarian OVER. Weather factor in CIN with expected cold and possible snow. SFO is a completely different team on the road, and won't be scoring many points in this game as they have at home. Marvin Lewis will get the job done -- with defense, this time.
RECOMMENDATION:
UNDER 41.5
Atlanta at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)
Total -- 48
BET ON CATEGORY C TEAMS ANGLE APPLIES TO ATL
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO ATL
DOUBLE UNDER ANGLE APPLIES
Comments: It frightens the shit out of me to bet bad teams with awful defenses -- and this is what we are getting here with a bet on the Falcons. The Falcons could be ripped apart this week, after an emotional comeback home win at home in the previous game. Here's to hoping the Colts take this opponent lightly and for QB Vick to create enough disarray to cover in the quarters. Colts do have a history of playing down to competition, so that's enough to make be bite on the Falcons.
RECOMMENDATION:
1Q ATL +.5
2Q ATL +3
3Q ATL +.5
4Q ATL +.5
1H: ATL +4
Minnesota (-2.5) at Chicago
Total -- 39.5
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO CHI
BET AGAINST ROAD FAVORITES COMING OFF A STRAIGHT-UP HOME WIN ANGLE APPLIES TO CHI
UNDER ANGLE APPLIES TO MIN
Comments: As a rule, I don't bet on teams starting rookie QBs. The best bet here appears to be the UNDER. Minnesota's RB Bennett is now listed as questionable, and the Vikings offense turns very mediocre outdoors. Meanwhile, the Bears offense has been horrific. Things won't be any easier with Grossman getting his first-ever NFL start. Chicago's defense is still playing very well, which indicates a low scoring game played near freezing temperatures.
RECOMMENDATION:
UNDER 39.5
Buffalo at Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
Total -- 40
BET ON CATEGORY C TEAMS ANGLE APPLIES TO BUF
OVER ANGLE APPLIES TO BUF
NOTE: GAME CURRENTLY OFF THE BOARD
Seattle at St Louis (-7)
Total -- 51.5
Comments: I'll bite and take the Seahawks, who I don't expect will put up back to back awful performances in road domes. There's too much talent on this team, between the RB and wideouts, not to mention a significant motivational edge. Seahawks have looked bad on the road this season, but they're getting a generous number of points this week against a team coming off a short week.
RECOMMENDATION:
1Q SEA +.5
2Q SEA +3
3Q SEA +.5
4Q SEA +.5
1H: SEA +3.5
Detroit at Kansas City (-14)
Total -- 44.5
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO DET
OVER ANGLE APPLIES TO DET
Comments: All I can say is -- this looks like a ton of points. The big margin is problematic for the Chiefs here, because frnakly, they haven't looked very good in recent weeks. The defense has been exposed as a fraud. I'll take any NFL team getting at least a FG in a quarter, even if it is the miserable Lions.
RECOMMDNATION:
1Q DET +3
2Q DET +4.5
3Q DET +3
Cleveland at Denver Broncos (-11)
Total -- 43
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO CLE
DOUBLE OVER ANGLE APPLIES
Comments: Cleveland's "Super Bowl" was last week, and they came up just short. Now, somehow, this same team must get up physically and emotionally for a meaningless road game at Denver. I have a feeling the Browns will get hammered in this game. Teams that can't run the ball (CLE) usually struggle versus teams that do run the ball well (DEN). But as a rule, I don't lay double digits, so this ranks as a pass. NO PLAY
Baltimore (-6.5) at Oakland
Total -- 39.5
BET AGAINST CATEGORY A TEAMS ANGLE APPLIES TO OAK
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO OAK
BET AGAINST ROAD FAVORITES COMING OFF A STRAIGHT-UP HOME WIN ANGLE APPLIES TO OAK
Comments: I'm not convinced the Ravens belong in the class of teams that lays a TD on the road. Baltimore enjoyed three consecutive home wins and now must trek to the West Coast. The Raiders are a pathetic team and organization, but they do have some added value here this week. I can't recall any game in recent memory when the Raiders were getting this many points at home.
1Q: OAK +.5
2Q: OAK +3
3Q: OAK +.5
4Q: OAK +.5
1H: OAK +3.5
Carolina (-6.5) at Arizona
Total -- 38
BET AGAINST CATEGORY A TEAMS ANGLE APPLIES TO ARZ
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO ARZ
Comments: Using the same logic as the Oakland game, the Cardinals look to be an excellent value at home getting lots of points. Problem is -- Cards start a rookie QB in this game -- against a pretty good defense. This looks like a terrific UNDER opportunity, since both offenses have huge question marks. HUGE PLAY ON THE UNDER. I'll also take the Cards getting +3 in the 2Q.
RECOMMENDATION:
UNDER 38 -- BEST BET
2Q: ARZ +3
Green Bay (-5) at San Diego
Total -- 45.5
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO SDI
BET AGAINST ROAD FAVORITES COMING OFF A STRAIGHT-UP HOME WIN ANGLE APPLIES TO SDI
UNDER ANGLE APPLIES TO SDI
Comments: I love the Chargers in this game, who enjoy a solid running game. Packers have proven time and time again to be an awful road favorite. Excellent value here with the Chargers.
1Q SDI +.5
2Q SDI +1
3Q SDI +.5
4Q: SDI +.5
New York Giants at New Orleans (-7)
Total -- 39
BET AGAINST CATEGORY A TEAMS ANGLE APPLIES TO NYG
Comments: Why in the world would the Saints be a 7-point favorite over anybody? These are two very disappointing teams. For the Giants, getting out of NYC will actually be an advantage this week. I'm tempted to play the Giants as a TD dog. There's obvious value with the Giants in the 2Q getting +3.
RECOMMENDATION:
2Q: NYG +3
1H: NYG +3.5
MNF: Philadelphia at Miami Dolphins (-2)
Total -- 37
OVER ANGLE APPLIES TO MIA
Comments: Huge game that is far more meaningful to the Dolphins. If Dallas loses the previous day, there's less incentive for Eagles to win in this game, although the home field advantage in playoffs will be at stake. Motivation could carry the Dolphins to a big win here at home on MNF, but I'll wait until game day to make this decision.
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Jacksonville at New England (-6.5)
Total -- 35
BET ON CATEGORY C TEAMS ANGLE APPLIES TO JAX
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO JAX
Comments: It's hard to see points being scored in this game. New England's defense has been spectacular at home, while the resurgent Jags will get a cold dose of reality this week, after a string of home warm weather games. Look for Jags to have trouble moving the ball and the Pats to grind it out and spend the clock. Snow and freezing temperatures are forecast. Since a low score is expected, this gives some extra value to betting the dog in the quarters, so I'll take the Jags getting points on each quarter, combined with the UNDER.
RECOMMENDATION:
UNDER 35
1Q JAX +.5
2Q JAX +3
3Q JAX +.5
4Q JAX +.5
1H JAX +3.5
Pittsburgh at New York Jets (-3)
Total -- 40
OVER ANGLE APPLIES TO NYJ
Comments: Here's another northeastern game where weather could be a significant factor. Looks inviting to take the dog plus the points. Both teams' seasons are about to end, but the Steelers played with more heart last week, while the Jets offense looked awful in Buffalo. Trouble is, Pittsburgh has been far too inconsistent to bet this season, and I don't think there's quit enough value here to justify a wager.
NO PLAY
Dallas at Washington Redskins (pick)
Total -- 36
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO WAS
Big game for Cowboys which must win here to stop the slide -- just one cover in last five games. Throw out the Cowboys' domination of this series in recent years -- the roles are now reversed with Dallas the playoff contender and Washington playing for pride. Big problem for Dallas is -- their offense has been horrific on the road. Cowboys scored just TEN points in their last three road games combined. Redskins lost a series of close games by a margin of just 8 points, then destroyed the Giants last week. Good opportunity for them to close out the season on a strong note here against a Cowboys team that is losing momentum. Unfavorable weather could also hurt the Cowboys in this game.
RECOMMENDATION:
WAS (pick)
San Francisco at Cincinnati (-2.5)
Total -- 41.5
DOUBLE OVER ANGLE APPLIES
RECOMMENDATION: I've already bet this game UNDER early in the week, at 42 -- going against the trend which suggests the contrarian OVER. Weather factor in CIN with expected cold and possible snow. SFO is a completely different team on the road, and won't be scoring many points in this game as they have at home. Marvin Lewis will get the job done -- with defense, this time.
RECOMMENDATION:
UNDER 41.5
Atlanta at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)
Total -- 48
BET ON CATEGORY C TEAMS ANGLE APPLIES TO ATL
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO ATL
DOUBLE UNDER ANGLE APPLIES
Comments: It frightens the shit out of me to bet bad teams with awful defenses -- and this is what we are getting here with a bet on the Falcons. The Falcons could be ripped apart this week, after an emotional comeback home win at home in the previous game. Here's to hoping the Colts take this opponent lightly and for QB Vick to create enough disarray to cover in the quarters. Colts do have a history of playing down to competition, so that's enough to make be bite on the Falcons.
RECOMMENDATION:
1Q ATL +.5
2Q ATL +3
3Q ATL +.5
4Q ATL +.5
1H: ATL +4
Minnesota (-2.5) at Chicago
Total -- 39.5
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO CHI
BET AGAINST ROAD FAVORITES COMING OFF A STRAIGHT-UP HOME WIN ANGLE APPLIES TO CHI
UNDER ANGLE APPLIES TO MIN
Comments: As a rule, I don't bet on teams starting rookie QBs. The best bet here appears to be the UNDER. Minnesota's RB Bennett is now listed as questionable, and the Vikings offense turns very mediocre outdoors. Meanwhile, the Bears offense has been horrific. Things won't be any easier with Grossman getting his first-ever NFL start. Chicago's defense is still playing very well, which indicates a low scoring game played near freezing temperatures.
RECOMMENDATION:
UNDER 39.5
Buffalo at Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
Total -- 40
BET ON CATEGORY C TEAMS ANGLE APPLIES TO BUF
OVER ANGLE APPLIES TO BUF
NOTE: GAME CURRENTLY OFF THE BOARD
Seattle at St Louis (-7)
Total -- 51.5
Comments: I'll bite and take the Seahawks, who I don't expect will put up back to back awful performances in road domes. There's too much talent on this team, between the RB and wideouts, not to mention a significant motivational edge. Seahawks have looked bad on the road this season, but they're getting a generous number of points this week against a team coming off a short week.
RECOMMENDATION:
1Q SEA +.5
2Q SEA +3
3Q SEA +.5
4Q SEA +.5
1H: SEA +3.5
Detroit at Kansas City (-14)
Total -- 44.5
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO DET
OVER ANGLE APPLIES TO DET
Comments: All I can say is -- this looks like a ton of points. The big margin is problematic for the Chiefs here, because frnakly, they haven't looked very good in recent weeks. The defense has been exposed as a fraud. I'll take any NFL team getting at least a FG in a quarter, even if it is the miserable Lions.
RECOMMDNATION:
1Q DET +3
2Q DET +4.5
3Q DET +3
Cleveland at Denver Broncos (-11)
Total -- 43
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO CLE
DOUBLE OVER ANGLE APPLIES
Comments: Cleveland's "Super Bowl" was last week, and they came up just short. Now, somehow, this same team must get up physically and emotionally for a meaningless road game at Denver. I have a feeling the Browns will get hammered in this game. Teams that can't run the ball (CLE) usually struggle versus teams that do run the ball well (DEN). But as a rule, I don't lay double digits, so this ranks as a pass. NO PLAY
Baltimore (-6.5) at Oakland
Total -- 39.5
BET AGAINST CATEGORY A TEAMS ANGLE APPLIES TO OAK
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO OAK
BET AGAINST ROAD FAVORITES COMING OFF A STRAIGHT-UP HOME WIN ANGLE APPLIES TO OAK
Comments: I'm not convinced the Ravens belong in the class of teams that lays a TD on the road. Baltimore enjoyed three consecutive home wins and now must trek to the West Coast. The Raiders are a pathetic team and organization, but they do have some added value here this week. I can't recall any game in recent memory when the Raiders were getting this many points at home.
1Q: OAK +.5
2Q: OAK +3
3Q: OAK +.5
4Q: OAK +.5
1H: OAK +3.5
Carolina (-6.5) at Arizona
Total -- 38
BET AGAINST CATEGORY A TEAMS ANGLE APPLIES TO ARZ
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO ARZ
Comments: Using the same logic as the Oakland game, the Cardinals look to be an excellent value at home getting lots of points. Problem is -- Cards start a rookie QB in this game -- against a pretty good defense. This looks like a terrific UNDER opportunity, since both offenses have huge question marks. HUGE PLAY ON THE UNDER. I'll also take the Cards getting +3 in the 2Q.
RECOMMENDATION:
UNDER 38 -- BEST BET
2Q: ARZ +3
Green Bay (-5) at San Diego
Total -- 45.5
BET ON LOSING TEAM ANGLE APPLIES TO SDI
BET AGAINST ROAD FAVORITES COMING OFF A STRAIGHT-UP HOME WIN ANGLE APPLIES TO SDI
UNDER ANGLE APPLIES TO SDI
Comments: I love the Chargers in this game, who enjoy a solid running game. Packers have proven time and time again to be an awful road favorite. Excellent value here with the Chargers.
1Q SDI +.5
2Q SDI +1
3Q SDI +.5
4Q: SDI +.5
New York Giants at New Orleans (-7)
Total -- 39
BET AGAINST CATEGORY A TEAMS ANGLE APPLIES TO NYG
Comments: Why in the world would the Saints be a 7-point favorite over anybody? These are two very disappointing teams. For the Giants, getting out of NYC will actually be an advantage this week. I'm tempted to play the Giants as a TD dog. There's obvious value with the Giants in the 2Q getting +3.
RECOMMENDATION:
2Q: NYG +3
1H: NYG +3.5
MNF: Philadelphia at Miami Dolphins (-2)
Total -- 37
OVER ANGLE APPLIES TO MIA
Comments: Huge game that is far more meaningful to the Dolphins. If Dallas loses the previous day, there's less incentive for Eagles to win in this game, although the home field advantage in playoffs will be at stake. Motivation could carry the Dolphins to a big win here at home on MNF, but I'll wait until game day to make this decision.
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