BEGINNING MONDAY APRIL 24
Florida at Chicago Cubs (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Cubs are averaging 7.3 runs per game against righthanders so far, four full runs better than the Marlins have performed in that situation (2-6, -$430 with 3.5 runs per game). Prices at Wrigley Field may get a bit high, but under the circumstances laying a big price is justified. PREFERRED: Cubs when righty meets righty.
Cincinnati at Washington (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Nationals only beat the Reds once last year (-$510), and they?ve gotten off to a bad start. But we prefer to take the Reds against lefthanders when they are on the road (8.8 runs per game in that situation) but they won?t get a chance against this rotation, and they had trouble as a visitor last year (-$775). PREFERRED: None.
Colorado at Philadelphia (4) 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th
The Rockies are 5-1 on the road so far (+$605),and despite a rare 1-0 loss at Coors Field last week, they are swinging the bats very well (.306 team BA). The Phillies are only 1-5 in this ballpark (-$460) so we?re anxious to grab the underdog prices and look to cash in if the visitor can get a split. PREFERRED: Rockies in all games.
Atlanta at Milwaukee (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The improved Brewers need to score more runs if they intend to keep pace in the NL Central, but we?re becoming big fans of Chris Capuano (3.93) who?ll be taking a turn in this series. The Braves are very suspect as visitors, after sustaining very heavy road losses in 2005 (-$860). PREFERRED: Capuano
L.A. Dodgers at Houston (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
Odalis Perez recovered from a terrible first start with a pair of solid efforts (1.46 ERA last two). Now he gets to take an underdog price against a Houston team that lost money vs. lefties in 2005 (-$340 with 4.1 runs per game) and only scored one run in their only start against a southpaw so far this season. PREFERRED: Od. Perez.
Pittsburgh at St. Louis (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Cardinals took 12 of 16 from the sad sack Pirates in 2005 (+$530) and we expect further bloodletting here. But the Cardinals are barely over .500 right now, so we?re not prepared to lay fat prices here a Busch Stadium. PREFERRED: None.
Arizona at San Diego (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Padres lost money to this team in 2005 (-$345) and since then San Diego has gotten significantly worse (5.53 ERA, .234 team BA). There?s a good chance both Miguel Batista (2.84 ERA) and Brandon Webb (2.14) will take turns at Petco Park. Outstanding value if they do (SD -$495 vs. righthanders). PREFERRED: Batista/Webb.
N.Y. Mets at San Francisco (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Mets won their first three road games of the year and ended the first two weeks of the season with the best numbers in baseball (9-2, +$630, 3.26 team ERA, .307 team BA). The Giants are still in the hunt, but their circumstances appear to be getting bleak, particularly if Barry Bonds continues to struggle with injuries. As long as the prices don?t get too out of line, we?ll have to keep riding the hot road team. PREFERRED: Mets at -125 or less.
Oakland at Texas (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Rangers are struggling at Arlington (2-5, -$355) and so far the offense has not lived up to expectations (.260 team BA, 10th in the AL). But Oakland has lost money vs. righthanders on the road thus far (-$245) and as we noted before, they tend to get off to slow starts in April. PREFERRED: None.
Detroit at L.A. Angels (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
The Tigers are 5-1 on the road (+$430) and the Angels? starters are having a tough time getting on track. We?ll try our luck vs. a trio of LA hurlers who have been the most notable culprits. PREFERRED: Tigers vs. Colon, Lackey & Weaver.
Chicago W. Sox at Seattle (3) 24th, 25th, 26th
Mark Buehrle is off to the best start of any White Sox starter (+$300, 2.25 ERA) and he?s up against a Seattle team that lost money vs. lefties last year (22-27, -$510) and is winless in two outings this season (0-2, -$200 with only 2.50 runs per game). PREFERRED: Buehrle.
BEGINNING TUESDAY APRIL 25
Boston at Cleveland (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Red Sox have reversed their usual form by winning 5 of their first 6 road games (+$400), while the Indians are once again losing money vs. righthanders at Jacobs Field (-$1260 last two seasons). Given the Tribe?s solid start, we can take Boston?s two aces (if available) at reasonable prices. PREFERRED: Schilling/Beckett.
Tampa Bay at N.Y. Yankees (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Devil Rays gave the Yankees fits last year (11-8, +$1660) doing the most of any team in the league to almost knock New York out of the post-season picture. They?ve gotten off to a profitable 3-3 start on the road in ?05 (+$205) and prices in this series will be through the roof. The Yanks were a disaster vs. lefties in the Bronx last year (-$1045) so that looks like the safest angle, but we?ll consider other options on game day. PREFERRED: Lefthanders vs. the Yankees.
Baltimore at Toronto (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
It will be interesting to see if either of these teams can make a move against the Yankees and Red Sox this year. Both are off to commendable starts, but we?ll wait and see how they fare over the next few days before committing ourselves. PREFERRED: None.
Minnesota at Kansas City (3) 25th, 26th, 27th
The Twins are only 1-5 on the road right now and they struggled as visitors last year. But how can we pass up Johan Santana as a visitor, given KC?s 17-38 (-$1010) record vs. lefthanders in 2005 as well as their 0-4 (-$400) record right now. PREFERRED: J. Santana.