it's truly amazing what a little discipline can do for your bankroll. stayed off a couple games i had a bad feeling about and ended up going 4-1. worked yesterday and last sunday.
san diego -9 at st louis - this would normally be an automatic play for me on the home dog. san diego has now lost on the road to kansas city, seattle, and oakland. now they play the rams. can we get these guys a game at buffalo? anyway, this line just seems too high. then again, there are enough idiots out there who will keep betting san diego. i just have a feeling this may be the week the idiots are right. right now, no play. scratch that. UNDER (44.5) 1 unit.
new england (-2.5) 3 units. OH MY GOD, baltimore beat new england in the playoffs. first of all, new england also beat baltimore in the regular season, as a 1.5 point fav (sounds pretty similar, doesn't it?). but let's revisit that playoff game. ray rice gashes the ne d for an 83-yard td on the first play. 3 plays later, brady fumbles away the ball for a 17-yard baltimore td 'drive'. 2 whole minutes later, brady throws a pick that lead to baltimore's 25-yard td 'drive'. 2 plays later, brady throws ANOTHER pick, leading to baltimore's 25-yd field goal drive, and it was 24-0 in the first quarter. after that, ne outscored baltimore 14-9. joe flacco on that day? 4/10 for 34 yards and an INT. could all that crazy shit happen again today? of course it could. but i'm willing to bet it won't. the pats are much better off without moss. until flacco proves he can be effective on the road (he has picked up right where he left off last year - cpt % 10 pts lower than at home, TD-INT of 2-6 vs 3-0 at home), i'll gladly play against the ravens.
balt/ne under (45) 1 unit. teams will finally be able to focus on welker, and as i mentioned previously, flacco is awful on the road. its incredibly difficult to play new england under right now, but if their d was ever going to step up and play decent, it's gotta be today.
san francisco (-7) 2 units. wow. a winless team laying 7 points? seriously? kinda jumps out at you, doesn't it? especially one week after everybody forgot kevin kolb is a better qb than mike vick, and bet the niners against the eagles. well, let's see... oakland just snapped, what, a 13-game losing streak to san diego? and they play at denver next week. and good ol' jason campbell is starting again. sounds like another big loss for the raiders.
ok, i need a 5th play... how 'bout...
dallas/minn under (44.5) 1 unit. romo vs favre (or, even funnier, tarvaris jackson). who will throw more picks?
san diego -9 at st louis - this would normally be an automatic play for me on the home dog. san diego has now lost on the road to kansas city, seattle, and oakland. now they play the rams. can we get these guys a game at buffalo? anyway, this line just seems too high. then again, there are enough idiots out there who will keep betting san diego. i just have a feeling this may be the week the idiots are right. right now, no play. scratch that. UNDER (44.5) 1 unit.
new england (-2.5) 3 units. OH MY GOD, baltimore beat new england in the playoffs. first of all, new england also beat baltimore in the regular season, as a 1.5 point fav (sounds pretty similar, doesn't it?). but let's revisit that playoff game. ray rice gashes the ne d for an 83-yard td on the first play. 3 plays later, brady fumbles away the ball for a 17-yard baltimore td 'drive'. 2 whole minutes later, brady throws a pick that lead to baltimore's 25-yard td 'drive'. 2 plays later, brady throws ANOTHER pick, leading to baltimore's 25-yd field goal drive, and it was 24-0 in the first quarter. after that, ne outscored baltimore 14-9. joe flacco on that day? 4/10 for 34 yards and an INT. could all that crazy shit happen again today? of course it could. but i'm willing to bet it won't. the pats are much better off without moss. until flacco proves he can be effective on the road (he has picked up right where he left off last year - cpt % 10 pts lower than at home, TD-INT of 2-6 vs 3-0 at home), i'll gladly play against the ravens.
balt/ne under (45) 1 unit. teams will finally be able to focus on welker, and as i mentioned previously, flacco is awful on the road. its incredibly difficult to play new england under right now, but if their d was ever going to step up and play decent, it's gotta be today.
san francisco (-7) 2 units. wow. a winless team laying 7 points? seriously? kinda jumps out at you, doesn't it? especially one week after everybody forgot kevin kolb is a better qb than mike vick, and bet the niners against the eagles. well, let's see... oakland just snapped, what, a 13-game losing streak to san diego? and they play at denver next week. and good ol' jason campbell is starting again. sounds like another big loss for the raiders.
ok, i need a 5th play... how 'bout...
dallas/minn under (44.5) 1 unit. romo vs favre (or, even funnier, tarvaris jackson). who will throw more picks?
