Sunday $$$

Spock

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Playin the followin and have decided not to make any more plays :
Lets see if we can make some $$ today.

Playing the following :

1. Mets @ Cincy Mets

New York Mets Money Line for Game -119
A. Leiter must start E. Dessens must start
Risking 49.98 To Win 42.00 USD

We got a win playin the mets yesterday.

Mets have not started to put together and are going after Atlanta. I think they have already overtaken Montreal who are back to their losing ways.

Some of the points to be noted :

Cincy are 1 - 11 in their last 12 at home.

NYM are 6 - 1 in their last 7 overall.
Cards are 4 - 3 in their last 7 overall.

Mets offence has picked up.

CIN is 11-9 in Dessens starts overall.
Dessens has 5 quality starts out of 9 starts at home. Has won his last game at home. 3 of the last 4 starts that he has won have been against Milwaukee and Cards. The loss was against Houston.
His home record is 3-2 while his team is 6-3 which is a good record.
Overall record of 6-5.
Overall ERA of 2.91 .. but at home his ERA increases to 3.91
Walks 3.38 per 9 innings pitched. gives up 1.60 HR per home game.
Strikes out 3.55 per 9 innings pitched.
Also recieves run support of 5.11 runs at home.

Leiter has an overall record of 9-7 and his team has a record of 10-10 in his starts. His record away from home is 5-5- and his team is 5-6/
In his last 7 games Leiters record is 3-2 while his team is 4-3.

Leiters overall ERA is 2.95. His ERA on the road is 3.03 while in the last 7 games he has pitched his ERA is 2.35 This Also in his last 7 games Leiter has 6 quality starts. This indicates that he is pitchin well in recent times.

On the road he walks 3.16 per 9 innings pitched and strikes out 6.59
The strikeout has increased to 7.63 in the last 7 games.
Gives up 0.66 HR per game on the road which is a good sign as less number of HR less number of runs walkin in.

Has recieved run support of 4.09 runs on average on the road.
Overall run support has been 4.65 runs
But in the last 7 games he has pitched run support has increased to 6.29

Gives an indication of the Mets Bats wagging.


Another key here is that Leiter is a LHP.

Overall Cincy is only 0.235 against LHP
Mets are batting 0.331 against RHP


For those who keep such records :
Mets are 7-8 playin on Sunday
Cincy are 5-10 playin on Sunday

Cincy are averagin 3.8 runs against LHP
Mets are averagin 4.6 runs against RHP

I am paying importance to the batting % of both teams.
Cincy has not faced a lot of LHP going 9 - 12
Mets vs RHP are 35 - 36

Since 97 Mets are 13 - 8 vs Cinci (@ Cincy)


I think there is good value in this play.


Final Score : Mets 4 Cincy 2

Good luck and Cheers !!!
Spock
 

Spock

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2. Atlanta @ Philly Atlanta ML

Atlanta Braves Money Line for Game -150
K. Millwood must start R. Wolf must start
Risking 39.00 To Win 26.00 USD


Some points first:

Atlanta is 30-18 on the road this season.
Philly is 26-25 at home this season.

Overall Atlanta is 63-35
Overall Philly is 45-51

In day games Atlanta is 20-8
In day games Philly is 11-17

In July games Atlanta is 12-5
In July games Philly is 8-9

Vs. LHP Atanta is 7-5
Vs RHP Philly is 38-39

When playing on Sunday Atlanta is 9-6
When playing on Sunday Philly is 9-6 also.

Against LHP Atlanta is averaging 3.7 runs per game and overall are
averaging 4.2 runs on the road.

Philly is averaging 4.9 runs against RHP and 4.2 runs at home overall.

Philly is averagin 0.254 against RHP in last 10 games.
Atlanta is batting 0.271 overall Vs LHP.

Comin to the pitchers :
Millwood has an overall ERA of 3.73 with bases walked 2.31 per 9 innings pitched.
His ERA on the road is 3.68 and Whip is 1.16
Recieves run support of 3.90 runs
In 10 starts on the road he has had 8 quality starts going 4-1 and team going 7-3

In last 7 games Millwood has been pitchin excellently goign 5-0 and his team going 7-0 with an ERA of 2.18 and a whip of 0.88
Has been giving up only 5.76 hits per game and striking out 10.32
Has recieveds run support of 3.57 runs.


Wolf has 6 quality starts in 8 tries at home. His record is 2-2 while team record is 8-8.
His overall record in 18 starts is 5-6 and team record is 8-10.
Overall ERA is 4.21 while at home his ERA dips to 3.99.
Walks 2.72 per 9 innings pitched at home while strikin out 7.97

In last 7 games he has 6 quality starts going 2-2 while team has gone 3-4
ERA has dipped to 3.50. Has been recievin run support of 3.71 in the last 7 games.

The only time the two pitchers faced each other Braves won the game 5-1

MILLWOOD is 7-4 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.13 and a WHIP of 1.294.
His team's record is 8-6 in these starts

WOLF is 1-5 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.79 and a WHIP of 1.362.
His team's record is 2-6 in these starts

The other factor i see is the bull pen. Philly bull pen has not been giving up loads of runs in last 2-3 games and looks like their time is due
Braves bull pen is consistent as ever and will hold Philly down.

I recommend taking Atlanta. I think the Under is a good play also but sticking with Atlanta.

Good luck and Cheers !!!
Spock
 

Spock

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Adding :

1. Montreal @ Florida Under 8.5

Montreal Expos/Florida Marlins
Total Points UNDER 8.5 for Game +100
T. Armas must start J. Beckett must start
Risking 40.00 To Win 40.00 USD


Notes:

Most of the points have been clearly put forward by Ndnfan. Please check his thread.

Both teams are finding it hard to score. Montreal is not the same time on the road as they are at home.
Hopefully the bull pen can come through after starters leave in 7'th or 8'th inning.

Cheers !!!
Spock
 

Spock

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Adding

4. Minny -1.5 (Runline)

Minnesota Twins Spread -1.5 for Game -108 E. Milton must start S. Sparks must start
Risking 43.20 To Win 40.00 USD

Notes:

Minny has been on an absolute tear lately. Detroit still struggles against lefties with a bad losing record against them. Minny hits righties very effectively and has a great winnin reacord against them as pointed out in my thread yesterday. I am not going to go into all the stats but I think Milton should outpitch Sparks and Minny should win this game by more than 2 runs.

Also Minny on the road so shud bat all 9 innings.

* Lots of stats here but have to go for breakfast and just wanted to get the picks up.
 

Spock

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Adding :

5. Pittsburg Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates 7/21/2002
Money Line for Game -102
C. Finley must start J. Fogg must start
Risking 40.80 To Win 40.00 USD

Notes:

Please read NDNfan's thread for detailed breakdown of this game.

Pittsburg has been on an offensive tear. Their bull pen is giving up way too many runs but since the all star break i think they are in the top 5 teams. Their pitchers are startin to get focussed and the team is batting at a very high %.

Fogg has been pitching excellent and also they are playing at
home. Fogg has a 4 game winning streak going. I think he will pitch well against Cards today.

Pitts are batting .342 against LHP in last 10 games.
Cards are .286 against RHP last 10 games.

Pittsburg is also 8-2 in last 10 games.
I think Pittsburg takes the series and makes a statement.

Cheers and good luck
Spock
 

Rummel

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Hey Spock,

I?m on the Pirates too! Got the Toronto RL with a call of help! 12-10 after leading with 11-1 :eek: :eek: Well well, a win is a win and I?m glad I won this time. Will not place any more money on the BJ in a while, afraid to lose I guess :) :p

Anyway, I belive I?ve found another RL winner today :cool: :cool: Was looking at KCs stats against Cleveland and found out that when KC wins against them, they always win with 2 runs or more. So I will try a RL on KC today even though they are the home team. Hope they only need 8 innings ;)

This is not a solid play, it?s a play built on statistiks so not to much money on this one. More value in the Pirets bet :)

GLTA today and hope to win some $$$ today :D

Regards

Rummel
 

Spock

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yup ..

lookin at Pitts. Over and also Toronto Over.


Adding :

6. Toronto Over 9.5 +106 @ Pinnacle
(The line just changed from +115 to +106)

Tampa Bay Devil Rays/Toronto Blue Jays
Total Points OVER 9.5 for Game +106
J. Sosa must start P. Walker must start
Risking 40.00 To Win 42.40 USD


I think this is an excellent price.

Toronto offence has really picked up and they are number 1 in batting % as a team after the all star break.

TB has shown that it can score runs against Toronto.
Both bull pens are extremely shaky and definitely give up a lot of runs.

Look for errors again. Errors are becoming key in this series and its hard to stop makin them for these teams. These 2 teams are the two bottom-most teams in the AL .. No real defence..

Walker has a good fast ball and a slider .. but no curve ball as such. I think he will get whacked around a bit. He walked 5-6 people in the last game and that can be a key.

Sosa had a good start against Anaheim on the road.
But he walks 5.14 per 9 innings pitched.
low number of strikeouts.

The only deterrant here is the Ump who has a big strike zone and
is 7-15 Over-Under.

But think the offence .. bad defence .. and bad pitchin will get us the Over.

Cheers !!!
Spock
 

Spock

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Rummel

lots of luck needed but yea got it. I had SF +1.5 in a small parlay with Toronto and those jokers gave up 3 runs bottom 8 after leading 2-1 going into the inning and lost 4-2 to screw me. :mad:

I think better runline is on Minny.

Good luck on the KC play.

Cheers !!!
Spock
 

Rummel

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Spock,

I find the Toronto/Tampa Pay over play interersting too. Will probably place some money on that too. Both teams got lots of hits and because of that, many runs. I belive TB even stand a chance to win if only J.Sosa (the TB pitcher) could do a better game then yesterdays TB pitcher did (belive it was his first game to pitch in the MLB though I didn?t find any stats on him).

GL on your picks today Spock!

//
Rummel :)
 

Spock

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Mark ..

defendin my crown .. hee hee .. i think new contest every week.

I think winner gets a free entry.

I am gonna put in picks today. Just for fun. If at all I end up with most money I hope Jack gives the entry to the person who came second. More people should get entry and not one person with 1+ entries in all fairness.

Cheers !!!
Spock
 

Spock

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Adding :

Houston @ Cubs Under 11


Thats it for the day. Have to go to party with work colleagues.

Cheers !!!
Spock
 
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