The Raptors are a struggle this year. They finally won after a 5 game losing streak. After winning a home game off this type of losing streak, as a home dog they are 3-16 (-11.6). They also had a great defensive effort, holding the Mavs to 74 points, which is more than 15 less than they were expected to score. After this kind of defensive effort, the Raptors are 1-11 SU (-8.6 ppg). They were also outscored in the paint by the Mavs, and as a home dog after a win where they scored less points in the paint than their opponent they are 2-10 SU (-9.5 ppg). In the calendar year of 2012, home dogs off a win as a home dog are 8-24 SU (-5.8 ppg).
Although Bargnani claims now he was misquoted, he had this to ?say? about his team:
?Nothing has worked from the beginning of the season. We are pretty much the worst team in the NBA. This summer?s moves in the market were made to build a winning team, but we are not winning.
We are below all of the expectations. No one is used to playing with anyone. We have won four games: it?s a tragic thing. Whatever way you look at it, it is a desperate situation. Since four years ago, we have kept losing. To improve, the only thing we can do is to win, and for now, we have not.?
That sounds like a losing attitude to me.
Houston is 6th in the league in rebounding, at 53.5 per game, and Toronto is 26th at 48.8 per game. Home dogs that are outrebounded in a game are 12-39 SU (-7.7) so far this year. Houston is also 6th in the league in points in the paint, averaging 44.5 per game, while Toronto is 26th in this category as well, averaging 37. Home dogs being outscored in the paint this year are 12-40 SU (-6.3 ppg). The Rockets as an away favorite after beating a team in the same season by 15+ points are 14-0 SU (+12.4 ppg) in the last 14.
Toronto got the Mavericks on a poor shooting night. The Mavs made no three pointers, snapping their historical 1108 game streak where they connected beyond the arc. I think the Raptors resounding win was more a product of the Mavs off night than their good night. The Raptors continue to struggle with injuries, as Bargnani and Lowry will all unavailable for this game. They contributed 28 points in the last meeting, where the Raptors lost by 16. The Rockets had a well-rounded game, with six players scoring double digits. Patterson will be out for the Rockets, but his play has slipped recently so it may be a good spot for other players to step up.
The Rockets have not fared well in Toronto in years past, but if they are going to break that skid, this situation sets up perfectly for them.