alright, i'll start by saying a) normally i suck in the NFL playoffs and b) i'm on an absolute cold streak right now.
i was going to play indy in the first game, but the more i thought about it... rookie qb on the road, indy's terrible defense, etc, etc... i'll probably stay off the game and hope baltimore wins so i can hammer denver next week.
washington (+3) 1 unit. i know, i've been through this before, and it's made me a lot of money over the last few year. russell wilson struggles on the road. this has been true going back to his nc state days. i won't dig up those numbers again, but more importantly for us - how does his team do ATS? in 3 years in college, his team's ATS record at home was 12-5 and on the road they were 6-10. now you may think that he got better on the road as he got older. but his last year at wisconsin saw the greatest discrepancy. they were 5-1 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS on the road. this continued this year, as seattle was 7-1 ATS at home and 3-4 ATS on the road (let's face it, the game in toronto was hardly a road game). and before you think 3-4 isn't terrible for a rookie qb, let's remember - one of those wins was against carolina and another was the game at SF when harbaugh declined the safey. in the game at carolina, the panthers scored one TD all game. on a TAINT thrown by wilson. oh, and here's the breakdown this season:
home 22 TDs and 5 INTs
away (does not include game in toronto) 8 TDs and 6 INTs
none of this is intended to be a knock on russell wilson. i like watching the kid play and i think he'll be a decent nfl qb for years to come. in fact, i think he's better than KGBIII (did i spell that correctly?). all i'm saying is there is a very strong home/away trend with his teams. and now his team is laying 3 points on the road in a playoff game.
oh, and seattle is 0-3 SU this year as a 3-point road fav.
after all that... i think the stronger play in this game is:
under (45.5) 2 units. only one seattle road game this year (again, i don't count that toronto game) went over 45 points. and i expect seattle's defense to keep KGBIII in check.
final score washington 7-3 on a defensive td.
i was going to play indy in the first game, but the more i thought about it... rookie qb on the road, indy's terrible defense, etc, etc... i'll probably stay off the game and hope baltimore wins so i can hammer denver next week.
washington (+3) 1 unit. i know, i've been through this before, and it's made me a lot of money over the last few year. russell wilson struggles on the road. this has been true going back to his nc state days. i won't dig up those numbers again, but more importantly for us - how does his team do ATS? in 3 years in college, his team's ATS record at home was 12-5 and on the road they were 6-10. now you may think that he got better on the road as he got older. but his last year at wisconsin saw the greatest discrepancy. they were 5-1 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS on the road. this continued this year, as seattle was 7-1 ATS at home and 3-4 ATS on the road (let's face it, the game in toronto was hardly a road game). and before you think 3-4 isn't terrible for a rookie qb, let's remember - one of those wins was against carolina and another was the game at SF when harbaugh declined the safey. in the game at carolina, the panthers scored one TD all game. on a TAINT thrown by wilson. oh, and here's the breakdown this season:
home 22 TDs and 5 INTs
away (does not include game in toronto) 8 TDs and 6 INTs
none of this is intended to be a knock on russell wilson. i like watching the kid play and i think he'll be a decent nfl qb for years to come. in fact, i think he's better than KGBIII (did i spell that correctly?). all i'm saying is there is a very strong home/away trend with his teams. and now his team is laying 3 points on the road in a playoff game.
oh, and seattle is 0-3 SU this year as a 3-point road fav.
after all that... i think the stronger play in this game is:
under (45.5) 2 units. only one seattle road game this year (again, i don't count that toronto game) went over 45 points. and i expect seattle's defense to keep KGBIII in check.
final score washington 7-3 on a defensive td.
