OK... I managed to find twenty minutes to gather a few thoughts. Pardon any mistakes though, this was a fast write up!
Cavaliers
Teams after losing ATS when playing as a home favorite against a team with a winning percentage of less than 25%, when they have a losing record, but are better than 40% win percentage on the season are 18-40 ATS (average line -8.3). (In other words, a bad team against a worse team). Teams playing at home after a game in which they scored more than 99 points, if their opponent also scored more than 99 points in their previous game which was on the road, when they have a winning percentage between 40 and 50 for the season, are 52-58 SU (-.3 ppg) and 31-76 ATS since the 2004 season.
As an average dog of 8.5, the Cav are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven when playing away against a team they beat in the same season.
Nets
Teams with a win percentage of 60% or greater, after a game where they played a poor team at home and won the game but did not cover the spread, playing on the road with no rest vs. a rested team are 9-18 SU (-7.7 ppg) and 6-21 ATS since the 2004 season. These games also are 22-5 OVER, which suggests that the Pacers may have a defensive lapse today. The Pacers are coming off an impressive home stand, but one where they had to play very hard in every game to win. This will be their fourth game in six days. The Nets are on a great winning streak, but they have had some fairly easy games. This is a huge game for them. Under Carlisemo, they are have won seven of their last eight and raised their ppg by nearly 8. Their offense looks a lot better, and I think they will have the energy to power past the Pacers today.
Nuggets
Teams that beat their opponent in the previous matchup by one possession at home, when they lost to them on the road earlier in the season by at least ten, are 1-15 SU (-13.7) and 3-12 ATS (average line 8.8) since the 2007 season. The Nuggets at home when they are on a 2 game ATS home losing streak are 13-3 ATS in their next home game as a favorite. At home this season, they are 13-2 SU (+9.5 ppg) and 10-5 ATS (they have lost 3 of last 4 ATS). At home vs. western conference opponents they are 8-1 SU (+11.2 ppg) and ATS.
When the Warriors lose a game when they are outscored in the paint, they also have not covered a spread (11 games this season). The Nuggets average almost 20 more points in the paint than the Warriors, and I expect them to outscore them tonight, as they have in each of the three previous meetings. Nuggets at home vs. an opponent that was outscored in the second half of their last game are 10-1 SU (+13.6 ppg) and 9-2 ATS.
Warriors have been outscored in the paint in 22 games this season
Nuggets have outscored their opponent in the paint in 36 games this season, including all three Warriors games
