Sunday

[Smitty]

as usual, the nfl schedule makes perfect sense. the east coast game is the late game and the west coast game is early. :facepalm:

before wagering on these games, I'd strongly suggest reading barnwell's write-ups on grantland:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nfc-championship-preview-packers-vs-seahawks/

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/afc-championship-preview-colts-vs-patriots/

the seahawks clearly are not as good as they were last year, but they still have a big home field advantage and they're playing a team that relied a lot on their own home field advantage. and, oh yeah, rodgers is banged up. and this line is BEGGING for green bay money.

let's take a look at green bay on the road this year:

36-16 loss at seattle. gb's lone td drive before garbage time was 34 yards. so even with a healthy rodgers, gb didn't move the ball much (255 yards on offense).

19-7 loss at Detroit

38-17 win at Chicago

27-24 win at Miami. gb needed a td with 3 seconds left for the win.

44-23 loss at new orleans on 10/26. that was the last home win for the saints.

24-21 win at minnesota

21-13 loss at buffalo

20-3 win at tampa. despite allowing a total of 6 first downs to the bucs, this was a one-score game in the 4th quarter.

only 2 of those games were against playoff teams. gb lost those games by a combined score of 55-23. one other was against a team that finished with a winning record, and they lost that game at buffalo. the packers were 2-5-1 ATS on the road, with the 2 covers at chicago and tampa.

i'll say it again - seattle is not as good as they were last year. but they're still solid. and this gb team has shown no indication that they can be competitive on the road against a quality team.

seattle (-8) 3 units.

 

[Smitty]

AFC

AFC

the patriots have been gradually fading over the last, what, 5 or 6 years? but thanks to parity (or, as I prefer to call it, mediocrity), they're still competitive every year. and now they get to play the colts to go another super bowl. lucky fucking patriots. I don't really need to rehash how the pats have dominated the colts in luck's 3 starts against them. the colts were giftwrapped a game last week by a Denver coaching staff that appeared to be coaching their first game. (seriously, jack del rio, when the other team has ZERO threat of a running game, how the fuck are you not blitzing every single play? good luck with the raiders!)

I made the mistake of backing tom brady in a playoff game last week (turns out, that terrible pick late in the first half was the difference between covering and not covering) and, sadly, I'm doing it again. the difference is they should be able to run the ball this week, so they won't need brady to do anything other than turn around and hand the ball off.

let's just hope the colts' defensive players don't shoot brady any dirty looks, or he'll crumple to the ground like he's been shot. and then he'll whine to the ref "did you SEE the look he gave me? that CAN'T be legal!! I'M TOM BRADY!!"

new england (-6.5) 2 units.

under (53) 1 unit.

 

[gjn23]

the patriots have been gradually fading over the last, what, 5 or 6 years? but thanks to parity (or, as I prefer to call it, mediocrity), they're still competitive every year. and now they get to play the colts to go another super bowl. lucky fucking patriots. I don't really need to rehash how the pats have dominated the colts in luck's 3 starts against them. the colts were giftwrapped a game last week by a Denver coaching staff that appeared to be coaching their first game. (seriously, jack del rio, when the other team has ZERO threat of a running game, how the fuck are you not blitzing every single play? good luck with the raiders!)

I made the mistake of backing tom brady in a playoff game last week (turns out, that terrible pick late in the first half was the difference between covering and not covering) and, sadly, I'm doing it again. the difference is they should be able to run the ball this week, so they won't need brady to do anything other than turn around and hand the ball off.

let's just hope the colts' defensive players don't shoot brady any dirty looks, or he'll crumple to the ground like he's been shot. and then he'll whine to the ref "did you SEE the look he gave me? that CAN'T be legal!! I'M TOM BRADY!!"

new england (-6.5) 2 units.

under (53) 1 unit.

this schedule is 1000x better than what they had for 40 years.....one kick at 10 pst, on kick at 1:30 pst.....who hosted which game based on who the hosting teams were

ummm......what if 2 west coast teams were hosting???....10am local kickoff (almost happened a few times)

at least now they rotate every year (afc/nfc) and one gets primetime while neither is subjected to a possible early kickoff (although 12pm local start in seattle is 60-90 mins earlier than normal)

 

[Barber]

A case can be made for either side in either game. Nice info Smitty. Both articles make perfect sense. I still having a hard time going big on either game. And big is still small for me. I hate losing a $25.00 bet. Shall tease? I lose most all teasers. LOL, I seem to win straight bets at a decent clip. I am going to tease both favorites and both unders. What the hell. Should be good games. Sit back, enjoy and good luck to all.