well, no way to sugarcoat it. i've been horrible in the playoffs.
LA (ML) 4 units to win 6.8
LA 1H (+3) 3 units. purely an anti-pats play. they went 6-4 outside of the powerhouse afc east and they haven't faced a playoff team since october. in this matchup of the two whiniest qbs in the league, the chargers' defense will be the difference. with ingram and bosa, the chargers can put pressure on brady without blitzing too much. the real question is derwin james. he's had a great season, but will the pats find a way to exploit the rookie safety? obviously i'm betting "no", but it will be fun to watch how he does.
rivers is overrated, but he's facing a more generous pass defense than last week. the big factor though will be the chargers ground game. new england gives up 4.9 yards/rush, which is 29th in the league. hopefully melvin gordon is healthy. he and ekeler both averaged over 5 yards/carry this year.
here's a question for the group... does anyone know if the chargers stayed on the east coast this week, or flew home and then flew back? i'm assuming they stayed. if not, i'll look for them to wear down in the second half.
philly (+8) 2 units
philly (ML) 1 unit to win 3
over (52.5) 1 unit. another game i should stay off of, but don't have the discipline. but i'm taking a shot with the eagles for 2 reason. 1) new orleans' home field advantage is vastly overrated this year. even throwing out the season finale against carolina, the saints outscored opponents at home by 12.4 and on the road by 10.4. that differential is well below league average. 2) drew brees looked like he had a very tired arm, starting with the dallas game. maybe having a couple weeks off has helped, but i'll take 8 points from a qb who just may be a shell of his former self. the eagles are good value today. the small over play is a hedge in case brees' arm is rested and he picks apart the eagles for 350 yards and 5 TDs.
LA (ML) 4 units to win 6.8
LA 1H (+3) 3 units. purely an anti-pats play. they went 6-4 outside of the powerhouse afc east and they haven't faced a playoff team since october. in this matchup of the two whiniest qbs in the league, the chargers' defense will be the difference. with ingram and bosa, the chargers can put pressure on brady without blitzing too much. the real question is derwin james. he's had a great season, but will the pats find a way to exploit the rookie safety? obviously i'm betting "no", but it will be fun to watch how he does.
rivers is overrated, but he's facing a more generous pass defense than last week. the big factor though will be the chargers ground game. new england gives up 4.9 yards/rush, which is 29th in the league. hopefully melvin gordon is healthy. he and ekeler both averaged over 5 yards/carry this year.
here's a question for the group... does anyone know if the chargers stayed on the east coast this week, or flew home and then flew back? i'm assuming they stayed. if not, i'll look for them to wear down in the second half.
philly (+8) 2 units
philly (ML) 1 unit to win 3
over (52.5) 1 unit. another game i should stay off of, but don't have the discipline. but i'm taking a shot with the eagles for 2 reason. 1) new orleans' home field advantage is vastly overrated this year. even throwing out the season finale against carolina, the saints outscored opponents at home by 12.4 and on the road by 10.4. that differential is well below league average. 2) drew brees looked like he had a very tired arm, starting with the dallas game. maybe having a couple weeks off has helped, but i'll take 8 points from a qb who just may be a shell of his former self. the eagles are good value today. the small over play is a hedge in case brees' arm is rested and he picks apart the eagles for 350 yards and 5 TDs.
