easily the best two weeks to start the playoffs i've ever had. hard to believe i'll keep it going for 3 more games. but here's what i've played so far.
tenn/kc 1st Q over (9.5) 1 unit
tenn 1st H (+4.5) 1 unit
tenn (+7.5) 4 units
tenn (ML) 2 units to win 5.6
over (52.5) 2 units. well, i'm gonna ride tennessee and derrick henry for one more week. once again, it's another perfect matchup for them. with the added bonus of the confidence of already winning at kc this year. beating kc ain't complicated. run, run, run. and then run some more. kc was 28th in the league, giving up 4.9 yards/carry, and 29th in run defense per the dvoa rankings. sure, tannehill is so bad that the chiefs could put 11 in the box and not pay a price for it. but henry might run right through all 11 guys, the way he's running right now.
on the other side of the ball, i trust vrabel to understand they should maybe cover kelce inside the 10. just a thought.
if the titans can keep it close, they'll win. because andy reid.
san fran (-7.5) 4 units
under (45) 2 units. i'm probably fucked, because i put 2 units on the niners tonight, forgetting that i already put 2 units on them 2 days ago. so now i have twice as much on them as i intended. BUT WAIT, it gets worse. i bet the niners last month to win the SB. so maybe i should have played the pack +7.5 and hoped for a close niners win. but ol' smitty ain't too bright. i'm getting greedy. but i really like SF in this game, and i'm not going to hedge a SB bet in the conference championship game. green bay's run defense wasn't much better than kc's this year. i like the niners to grind away on the ground and steadily pull away.
tenn/kc 1st Q over (9.5) 1 unit
tenn 1st H (+4.5) 1 unit
tenn (+7.5) 4 units
tenn (ML) 2 units to win 5.6
over (52.5) 2 units. well, i'm gonna ride tennessee and derrick henry for one more week. once again, it's another perfect matchup for them. with the added bonus of the confidence of already winning at kc this year. beating kc ain't complicated. run, run, run. and then run some more. kc was 28th in the league, giving up 4.9 yards/carry, and 29th in run defense per the dvoa rankings. sure, tannehill is so bad that the chiefs could put 11 in the box and not pay a price for it. but henry might run right through all 11 guys, the way he's running right now.
on the other side of the ball, i trust vrabel to understand they should maybe cover kelce inside the 10. just a thought.
if the titans can keep it close, they'll win. because andy reid.
san fran (-7.5) 4 units
under (45) 2 units. i'm probably fucked, because i put 2 units on the niners tonight, forgetting that i already put 2 units on them 2 days ago. so now i have twice as much on them as i intended. BUT WAIT, it gets worse. i bet the niners last month to win the SB. so maybe i should have played the pack +7.5 and hoped for a close niners win. but ol' smitty ain't too bright. i'm getting greedy. but i really like SF in this game, and i'm not going to hedge a SB bet in the conference championship game. green bay's run defense wasn't much better than kc's this year. i like the niners to grind away on the ground and steadily pull away.
