02:20 PM MLB [906] CHI CUBS -245 ( V VELASQUEZ -R / J LACKEY -R )
04:10 PM MLB [909] SFO GIANTS -1.5 -115 ( J CUETO -R / C RUSIN -L )
05:05 PM MLB [912] TOTAL u8-115 (MIA MARLINS vrs ATL BRAVES) ( T KOEHLER -R / J TEHERAN -R )
08:00 PM MLB [913] LA DODGERS -1.5 -140 ( C KERSHAW -L / B COLON -R )
02:15 PM MLB [922] TOTAL u7.5 -120 (CHI WHITE SOX vrs KC ROYALS) ( C SALE -L / E VOLQUEZ -R )
04:10 PM MLB [928] SEA MARINERS -200 ( ACTION /T WALKER -R )
1 unit bet pays 22 ....betdsi line
**** White Sox vs Royals Under 7.5 -120 *****
-- We all know Sale will bounce back strong after his worst start of the year, aces do that...under has hit 12 of last 15 games Sale has started vs Royals.
-- Sale spots a 1.41 ERA away from home this season.
-- Royals average only .226 vs lefties at home, and that's with a buncha good bats they are missing now.
-- Volquez has a 2.06 ERA in 6 starts at home, avg of only 5.5 runs total in those games, and he sports a 1.63 era vs CWS (1.20 ERA at home vs them)...overall the under has hit 6-3-1 in Volquez' starts this season.
-- wind at Kaufmann is SW 5 mph to SSW 6 mph, so shouldn't be a factor
-- and HP ump Ted Barrett has work well with both these starters in the past, helping them toward nothing but all quality starts in the 4 combined they have with him.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
As Teheran has posted a 1.17 ERA over his past seven starts, he has commanded his changeup, which has made his 90-93 mph fastball seem livelier. His ability to locate inside has halted his struggles against left-handed hitters.
I could argue all day about why the Mets would beat Kershaw, but I?d just be blowing smoke. It?s impossible to make a good case to betting against him right now. I?m not saying he?s unbeatable (the Marlins beat him this year) I?m just saying that betting against him is a losing proposition right now. With his history in the playoffs, I might bet against him, but I?ll keep betting him in the regular season. It?s a profitable strategy. Let?s take Kershaw and the Dodgers on Sunday.
--
I?m not huge on backing pitchers simply based on career ledgers vs. an opponent. It?s small sample stuff for the most part and can frequently be dismissed as extraneous info. But in the case of David Price vs. the Blue Jays, there?s just no way to avoid it. Price is now an amazing 17-2 lifetime against Toronto. That includes 11-1 at this site.
Marlins vs. Braves
Play: Under 7
Atlanta is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of weak offense square off. Miami is in town, 20th in baseball in runs scored. Starter Tom Koehler has turned things around, allowing 3, 2, 1 and 1 run the last four starts and the last three years has a 3.57 ERA against Atlanta. Miami is on an 8-3 run under the total, including 7-1 under against a righty starter. He faces a bad Atlanta offense, last in baseball in runs scored and slugging. Julio Teheran has a 2.57 ERA but only one win as the offense can't score for him. Teheran allowed only one run on three hits and struck out 12 in seven innings against Milwaukee on Tuesday, a 2-1 defeat. Teheran has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball during the past month with an 0.80 ERA over the past five starts. Atlanta is 14-4-1 under the total at home vs. a team with a winning record, plus 15-5-3 under when they face a righty starter at home. And the Under is 7-3 in Teheran's last 10 starts vs. Marlins.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Julio Teheran knows all about pitching well but not having anything to show for it. He has posted a 1.17 ERA in his last seven starts, including giving up three ERs over 33.2 innings (0.80 ERA) in five starts during May. He?s allowed just six ERs in his last seven starts, posting a 45-6 KW ratio, yet Atlanta is 2-5 in those outings. However, as poor as the Braves have played this season (Atlanta is tied with Minnesota at 14-34, a MLB-worst), they've somehow been at their best against the Miami Marlins. The Braves are averaging just 3.2 RPG on the season but after Saturday?s 7-2 win, have averaged 5.8 RPG while going 5-0 against the Marlins.
The Marlins may have won the final SEVEN meetings between the two clubs in 2015 but Miami manager Don Mattingly told MLB's official website, ?It's now 0-5 in 2016. It tells you you're not playing good enough in those games to win games." Can Miami end its woes against Atlanta up against Teheran, with Tom Koehler (2-5, 4.79 ERA) getting the nod? He was roughed up for six runs (five earned) on nine hits in 3.2 innings of a 6-4 loss to Atlanta back on April 16. Koehler comes in 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA while the Marlins have lost all FIVE of his May starts. He has struggled mightily with his control, issuing five walks in each of his last three starts.
Getting back to Teheran, yes he?s 1-4 on the season with Atlanta going 2-8 in his 10 starts. However, he owns a 2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP (just 48 hits allowed in 63 innings) with opponents batting only .206 against him. Teheran is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 career starts against Miami (Braves are 8-4), while Koehler is 2-5 in 11 career starts vs the Braves (teams are 3-8.), posting a 4.24. Yes, the Braves are 0-6 in Teheran?s six home starts this season but that?s after going 35-14 (.714) in his home starts the last three seasons (2013-15).
Braves get the sweep and Teheran picks up a much-deserved ?W.?
04:10 PM MLB [909] SFO GIANTS -1.5 -115 ( J CUETO -R / C RUSIN -L )
05:05 PM MLB [912] TOTAL u8-115 (MIA MARLINS vrs ATL BRAVES) ( T KOEHLER -R / J TEHERAN -R )
08:00 PM MLB [913] LA DODGERS -1.5 -140 ( C KERSHAW -L / B COLON -R )
02:15 PM MLB [922] TOTAL u7.5 -120 (CHI WHITE SOX vrs KC ROYALS) ( C SALE -L / E VOLQUEZ -R )
04:10 PM MLB [928] SEA MARINERS -200 ( ACTION /T WALKER -R )
1 unit bet pays 22 ....betdsi line
**** White Sox vs Royals Under 7.5 -120 *****
-- We all know Sale will bounce back strong after his worst start of the year, aces do that...under has hit 12 of last 15 games Sale has started vs Royals.
-- Sale spots a 1.41 ERA away from home this season.
-- Royals average only .226 vs lefties at home, and that's with a buncha good bats they are missing now.
-- Volquez has a 2.06 ERA in 6 starts at home, avg of only 5.5 runs total in those games, and he sports a 1.63 era vs CWS (1.20 ERA at home vs them)...overall the under has hit 6-3-1 in Volquez' starts this season.
-- wind at Kaufmann is SW 5 mph to SSW 6 mph, so shouldn't be a factor
-- and HP ump Ted Barrett has work well with both these starters in the past, helping them toward nothing but all quality starts in the 4 combined they have with him.
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
As Teheran has posted a 1.17 ERA over his past seven starts, he has commanded his changeup, which has made his 90-93 mph fastball seem livelier. His ability to locate inside has halted his struggles against left-handed hitters.
I could argue all day about why the Mets would beat Kershaw, but I?d just be blowing smoke. It?s impossible to make a good case to betting against him right now. I?m not saying he?s unbeatable (the Marlins beat him this year) I?m just saying that betting against him is a losing proposition right now. With his history in the playoffs, I might bet against him, but I?ll keep betting him in the regular season. It?s a profitable strategy. Let?s take Kershaw and the Dodgers on Sunday.
--
I?m not huge on backing pitchers simply based on career ledgers vs. an opponent. It?s small sample stuff for the most part and can frequently be dismissed as extraneous info. But in the case of David Price vs. the Blue Jays, there?s just no way to avoid it. Price is now an amazing 17-2 lifetime against Toronto. That includes 11-1 at this site.
Marlins vs. Braves
Play: Under 7
Atlanta is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of weak offense square off. Miami is in town, 20th in baseball in runs scored. Starter Tom Koehler has turned things around, allowing 3, 2, 1 and 1 run the last four starts and the last three years has a 3.57 ERA against Atlanta. Miami is on an 8-3 run under the total, including 7-1 under against a righty starter. He faces a bad Atlanta offense, last in baseball in runs scored and slugging. Julio Teheran has a 2.57 ERA but only one win as the offense can't score for him. Teheran allowed only one run on three hits and struck out 12 in seven innings against Milwaukee on Tuesday, a 2-1 defeat. Teheran has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball during the past month with an 0.80 ERA over the past five starts. Atlanta is 14-4-1 under the total at home vs. a team with a winning record, plus 15-5-3 under when they face a righty starter at home. And the Under is 7-3 in Teheran's last 10 starts vs. Marlins.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta Braves
Julio Teheran knows all about pitching well but not having anything to show for it. He has posted a 1.17 ERA in his last seven starts, including giving up three ERs over 33.2 innings (0.80 ERA) in five starts during May. He?s allowed just six ERs in his last seven starts, posting a 45-6 KW ratio, yet Atlanta is 2-5 in those outings. However, as poor as the Braves have played this season (Atlanta is tied with Minnesota at 14-34, a MLB-worst), they've somehow been at their best against the Miami Marlins. The Braves are averaging just 3.2 RPG on the season but after Saturday?s 7-2 win, have averaged 5.8 RPG while going 5-0 against the Marlins.
The Marlins may have won the final SEVEN meetings between the two clubs in 2015 but Miami manager Don Mattingly told MLB's official website, ?It's now 0-5 in 2016. It tells you you're not playing good enough in those games to win games." Can Miami end its woes against Atlanta up against Teheran, with Tom Koehler (2-5, 4.79 ERA) getting the nod? He was roughed up for six runs (five earned) on nine hits in 3.2 innings of a 6-4 loss to Atlanta back on April 16. Koehler comes in 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA while the Marlins have lost all FIVE of his May starts. He has struggled mightily with his control, issuing five walks in each of his last three starts.
Getting back to Teheran, yes he?s 1-4 on the season with Atlanta going 2-8 in his 10 starts. However, he owns a 2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP (just 48 hits allowed in 63 innings) with opponents batting only .206 against him. Teheran is 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 career starts against Miami (Braves are 8-4), while Koehler is 2-5 in 11 career starts vs the Braves (teams are 3-8.), posting a 4.24. Yes, the Braves are 0-6 in Teheran?s six home starts this season but that?s after going 35-14 (.714) in his home starts the last three seasons (2013-15).
Braves get the sweep and Teheran picks up a much-deserved ?W.?
