02:15 PM [956] STL CARDINALS -180 ( C ANDERSON -R / M WACHA -R )
01:05 PM [964] TOR BLUE JAYS +101 ( C KLUBER -R / J HAPP -L )
02:10 PM [970] HOU ASTROS -133 ( J QUINTANA -L / C MCHUGH -R )
02:10 PM [971] TEX RANGERS -145 ( C HAMELS -L / K GIBSON -R )
04:10 PM [973] TOTAL o9+100 (BAL ORIOLES vrs SEA MARINERS) ( U JIMENEZ -R / H IWAKUMA -R )
04:05 PM [978] OAK ATHLETICS -155 ( F LIRIANO -L / D MENGDEN -R )
1 unit bet pays 29 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-95, -22.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Green will be coming up from Triple-A to make a spot start for the Yanks, and they hope he can replicate his Minor League production at the MLB level. His 1.54 ERA in 14 starts is the best mark in the International League this season.
Cashner: The hard-throwing righty is set to return from the strained neck that forced him onto the disabled list in early June. Cashner threw 38 pitches for Class A Lake Elsinore in a rehab start Tuesday, allowing no runs on two hits.
Biggest OVER run: Twins (18-5-2 last 25)
Minnesota exploded for a season-high 17 runs against the Rangers on Saturday, riding a breakout 2-home run, 7-RBI game from rookie Max Kepler. Despite the worst record in baseball, the Twins have been involved in an astounding amount of high-scoring games since May 23. In a 37-game stretch, either Minnesota or its opponent has scored at least five runs in 31 of them, leading to the ?over? going 27-8-2. The Twins and Rangers are in the midst of seeing one another seven times between now and the All-Star break, which could lead to plenty of fireworks since Texas has scored at least five runs in eight of its last 10 games. Kyle Gibson (1-5, 5.12) shut out the White Sox over seven innings in his last start, but had been involved in games that climbed ?over? the posted total in three of his previous four outings. Rangers ace Cole Hamels (9-1, 2.60) might squash any hope of another big day at the plate for Minnesota, however, since he?s given up two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts, all wins. This total has been set at 8.5.
Orioles vs. Mariners
Play: Over 9
Baltimore has the No. 5 offense in baseball in runs scored, Seattle is No. 9. Baltimore is also 8th in on-base percentage and tops in slugging. The Over is 17-5-1 in the Orioles last 23 games vs. a right-handed starter. Baltimore goes with Ubaldo Jimenez (5-7, 6.64 ERA), who has struggled. Jimenez has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, but the Orioles, without any ready alternatives, will be forced to continue leaning on him in a starting role for the time being. The team is 8-1 over the total when he starts. The Over is 20-8 in Mariners last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Hisashi Iwakuma goes for Seattle with a 4.34 ERA and batters hitting .282 off him. The 10-3 in the Mariners last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Hottest pitcher: Jon Lester (9-3, 2.03 ERA)
After losing another Jake Arrieta start, Chicago looks to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Mets by turning to Lester, their ERA leader and lone lefty starter. The Cubs have lost only once in Lester?s last seven outings and watched him go 4-0 with a 1.41 ERA in June to move into second behind L.A.?s Clayton Kershaw among MLB?s ERA leaders. Lester lost a 4-2 decision to New York and Matt Harvey in Game 1 of last year?s NLCS and will look to stop a seven-game losing streak at the hands of the Mets that started last postseason. He?ll face Noah Syndergaard (8-3, 2.49), who outdueled Arrieta in NLCS Game 2 and has been New York?s best pitcher this year. Syndergaard is coming off surrendering five runs in just three innings to snap a personal six-game winning streak in an 11-4 loss at Washington on June 27. Although there have been rumors he?s been dealing with elbow pain, his velocity was normal and he reported feeling good. This is by far Sunday?s top pitching matchup.
ATLANTA +132 over Miami
Adam Conley drew some buzz from scouts this spring. He has followed that up by posting a 3.90 ERA after 16 starts but it's a mark that doesn't come with much underlying support. Stamina might be the culprit, as Conley?s skills diminish drastically the second and third time through the lineup. We?re also seeing an increase in Conley?s wildness. There are other things we?re not crazy about either. Conley brings a 1.36 WHIP into this game. He throws a lot of pitches to get through innings and that?s a bad sign that suggests he can?t put away hitters. He appears to be tiring and he?s overpriced against an Atlanta team that is playing some pretty good ball right now.
As the biggest underdog on yesterday?s board, Atlanta whacked Jose Fernandez and the Fish, 9-1. The Braves have won 10 of their past 17 games. Three of the losses over that span occurred against the red-hot Indians. The Braves have also scored 22 runs over their last three games so they are swinging some hot sticks right now and they figure to be even more jacked up playing at home on ESPN?s Sunday Night Baseball.
Whether you are a bettor or a fantasy player, put Matt Wisler on your radar immediately. Wisler had a strong pedigree when he arrived, ranking among the top 100 prospects in the Minor League Baseball Analyst in both 2014 (#37) and 2015 (#32). His transition to the majors was a tough one though, as he posted a 4.71 ERA in 20 appearances (19 starts) in 2015. He's lowered his ERA to 4.16 thus far in 2016 and it?s looking better each month. Wisler was the 2015 preseason No. 1 prospect for San Diego before he came over to the Braves in the Craig Kimbrel trade. The 6'3", 195-pound right-hander has a good feel for pitching with great control and a mix of pitches that already includes three plus ones. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, and he has a great slider in the mid-80s and a mid-70s curve that is effective. Wisler has now made 36 starts to begin his career and for the first 30 he was not generating enough K?s or swing and misses. However, that is starting to trend in the right direction and it?s a significant positive sign moving forward. Wisler has struck out 22 over his last 27 frames. He struck out nine over six innings in his last start with a 15% swing and miss rate. Wisler was obliterated by left-handed batters last season, but they have had much less success against him so far in 2016. It has taken Wisler some time to adjust to hitters at the highest level. However, his confidence is so much higher now than it was before now that he realizes he belongs and that he?s good. As un underdog in this price range, Wisler and the warm Braves offer up all the value here.
Coldest pitcher: Francisco Liriano (4-8, 5.33 ERA)
The Pirates have won the first two games in their series at Oakland after splitting in Seattle, so their West Coast trip is going extremely well, delivering them to within a game of .500 as they look for a sweep of the A?s. They?ll need to overcome Liriano?s slumping ways to get the job done since he?s pitched in a single victory over his last nine starts. The Dominican lefty has gotten through six innings only twice in his last seven and has surrendered at least four runs in five of six. Liriano has been even worse on the road, giving up 11 home runs in just 38.2 innings and is 1-4 with a 6.98 ERA outside of Pittsburgh. He?s had a pretty solid run with the Pirates, but the manner in which he?s coming apart is similar to how the bottom fell out for him in Minnesota. Oakland slugger Khris Davis is 4-for-12 against him with two homers.
Cole Hamels - 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. I've been pretty low on Hamels this year, but he keeps beating his xFIP and FIP by a ton, lowering his ERA to 2.60 despite a whopping 4.39 FIP. At least his walk rate is falling to 3.30 BB/9 after this. I don't love it, but with the way pitchers are throwing this year, you best hope that luck continues.
Betcha didn?t know: Brandon McCarthy is undefeated as a member of the Dodgers despite a 5.87 ERA. L.A., notorious for its lack of run support last season, averaged 7.75 runs per game in McCarthy's starts last April before he tore the UCL in his elbow and underwent Tommy John Surgery. McCarthy, who missed the entire 2010 season due to a shoulder surgery, will be pitching in the bigs for the first time in over 14 months following a rehab stint at Class A Rancho Cucamonga that begin on June 12. McCarthy went 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA in Class-A, striking out 11 and walking three. Colorado, who McCarthy shut out 7-0 in his best Dodgers start, will counter with Jon Gray (5-3, 4.83) to try and avoid a sweep. The Rockies have scored a single run in the first two games of the series.
Early returns suggest that the Colorado Rockies may have finally developed an area in which their franchise has sorely been lacking; Jon Gray has been impressive both in and out of Coors Field. This time he's out, as the Rockies conclude a series in Chavez Ravine against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Gray's 9.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 are excellent regardless, but even more so from a rookie.
The 24-year-old right-hander has pitched at least six frames in nine of his 13 outings, which is integral in DFS. Gray faces an offense that's weak against righties, and the Dodgers will also be without Joc Pederson. Additionally, his mound foe will be the returning Brandon McCarthy, who hasn't thrown a pitch, at least at the major league level, since April 2015. This all adds up to Gray being a solid DFS choice in all formats.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics
The Pirates had lost 12 of 14 games away from home going into the team?s Wednesday contest at Seattle. However, the Pirates salvaged a split of that two-game series with an 8-1 win and then Friday and Saturday, have beaten the A?s 7-3 and 4-2 (10 innings) to give the team a much-needed three-game winning streak. The Pirates look to complete a sweep of the A?s today at Oakland in the finale of their three-game interleague series, while also evening their record at 41-41 on the season. Pittsburgh has outscored the opposition 19-6 during its winning streak but Sunday?s starter Francisco Liriano (4-8, 5.33 ERA) hasn?t earned a win since May 24!
Liriano bested Arizona 12-1 in that one but has since made six starts, going 0-5 (team is 0-6) while posting a 7.12 ERA. He?s allowed 36 hits (including five HRs) and 24 walks during that stretch which has covered 30.1 innings. This from a pitcher who has had ERAs of 3.38 or lower in each of his past three seasons with Pittsburgh, going a combined 35-25. Getting the nod for Oakland is Daniel Mengden (1-3, 2.81 ERA), who is coming off his first career victory, an 8-3 triumph at San Francisco in which he gave up two runs and four hits in 7.2 innings. It marked the first time in four outings he did not serve up a home run but the rookie has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his four major-league starts.
Mengden will be facing Pittsburgh for the first time while Liriano has had mixed results against Oakland in his career, going 4-4 with a 4.14 ERA in 15 appearances (13 starts / teams are 6-7). Menden has 26 strikeouts and just nine walks over 25.2 innings and his confidence has grown with each major league start. "Every time you step on the rubber and get out there you gain experience and confidence and trust in yourself, as well," said Mengden, who will try to prevent the Pirates from sweeping the three-game series. "Getting used to the atmosphere, the type of hitters you're facing. The more and more you do it, the easier it gets, and I guess the more confidence you'll get. And I've been throwing well, so that always helps with the confidence and trusting my stuff. It's a lot of fun."
It's been 40 days since Liriano won a game and while that streak will eventually end, my bet says that will NOT be the case here!
N.Y. METS +110 over Chicago
On Friday night it was deGrom over Hammel in a wipeout. Yesterday it was Colon over Arrieta in a narrow victory. The Cubbies were favored both games and they?re favored again here. Chicago has now lost three in a row and five of eight. Their only three wins over that span occurred against Cincinnati. Chicago is a very good team but because of their great start and popularity, you would once again be paying a serious premium to wager on them here and that is something we never recommend doing.
The pitching matchup is obviously a marquee one. Jon Lester remains reliable, consistent, and effective. Lester continues to pound the zone early in the count, as his first-pitch strike rate has edged up and is nearing elite territory. The strikeouts are coming at an excellent rate as well, which puts his command well above our threshold for an effective starting pitcher. Lester has a BB/K split of 24/102 in 103 innings. With excellent control, a K-per-inning, a 48% groundball rate and "AAA" reliability, Lester is among the best. However, Noah Syndergaard is better.
Syndergaard has 115 K?s in 94 innings with just 15 walks issued. That?s as good as it gets. He has an overall 54% groundball rate and a 60% GB rate over his last three starts. His swing and miss rate is unmatched at 18%. Clayton Kershaw may be the best pitcher on the planet but Noah Syndergaard is damn close to being his equal and the fact that he?s a dog in his own barn is once again bordering on lunacy.
We should address the elephant in the room however. Syndergaard (elbow) is denying reports that he's pitching through a bone spur in his right elbow. ?I do not. No. My arm feels great. It's amazing what a little anti-inflammatories can do,' Syndergaard said?. He said there is nothing structurally wrong with his elbow. We believe him.
Colorado +120 over LOS ANGELES
This might be the biggest overlay on today?s board. Jonathan Gray is one of only seven starters in MLB who can claim the same great skills both with the bases empty and with runners on base. He has been victimized by a terrible and extremely unlucky 14% strand rate when guys are on base. Gray?s 4.83 ERA keeps his value way down but his xERA of 3.04 is one of the best in the league. Gray has 83 K?s in 76 innings with a 50% groundball rate. He is one of only five pitchers that have a groundball rate of 50% or more with more than a strikeout per inning. Gray is an absolute ace that is priced like J.A. Happ here. What?s even more ludicrous is that he?s priced like J.A. Happ against a guy making his first start in over a year!
Brandon McCarthy surprised everyone in 2014 with both skills growth and a random stretch of good health. The latter ended early in 2015, as he underwent TJS in late April, projecting for a mid-2016 return. That projection was accurate and now McCarthy is 32-years-old. McCarthy has hardly been scintillating in his rehab as suggested by the seven earned runs allowed in 13 innings over four games. And his longest start has been five innings. But McCarthy has posted an 11/3 K/BB while keeping the ball on the ground during his rehab. And in the immediate wake of Clayton Kershaw?s DL stint, the Dodgers are looking for an experienced arm that might eat five innings and keep them in a game or two. This line is so flawed because not many understand how good Jonathan Gray really is and how ordinary the Dodgers offense really is. This is a must bet.
Pittsburgh +131 over OAKLAND
Francisco Liriano has a 5.33 ERA after 15 starts. His ERA and xERA are both high because his walks are way up. Liriano has walked 54 batters in 83 innings and no pitcher can survive a walk rate that high. However, Liriano is working with the best pitching coach in the majors. If he?s throwing strikes, he?s elite. We have seen him go through stretches like this in the past before it gets corrected for a period of time. Nobody knows when that?ll happen but we?re willing to gamble that he?s better today because the price is worth the risk. Liriano has 83 K?s in 83 innings with a 50% groundball rate. He also has a plethora of experience and when he?s on his game, he?s an ace. Now he?s a significant dog against a rookie with four MLB starts to his name. If that doesn?t motivate Liriano, nothing will.
In two of his four starts thus far, Daniel Mengden has walked seven batters in 13.1 combined innings. The A?s have lost three of his four starts to Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Texas. He does have 26 K?s in 25 frames but both Milwaukee and Cincinnati are big strikeout teams and neither saw him before. Four starts into his career and there is now plenty of film on Mengden. Don?t get us wrong, as this kid has lots of upside not to mention a very good minor-league pedigree. However, he was in Double-A in April and now he?s a favorite over Liriano in June. Even if Mengden is GREAT today, it may not matter if the A?s are unable to score runs. When Mengden lost to Texas 2-1 on June 16, Colby Lewis took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against them. It?s also worth noting that Mengden has been taken yard in every start with the exception of his last one at San Francisco?s AT&T Park at night. Forget the rookie for a second, as the A?s aren?t good enough to be priced in this range against the Pirates.
01:05 PM [964] TOR BLUE JAYS +101 ( C KLUBER -R / J HAPP -L )
02:10 PM [970] HOU ASTROS -133 ( J QUINTANA -L / C MCHUGH -R )
02:10 PM [971] TEX RANGERS -145 ( C HAMELS -L / K GIBSON -R )
04:10 PM [973] TOTAL o9+100 (BAL ORIOLES vrs SEA MARINERS) ( U JIMENEZ -R / H IWAKUMA -R )
04:05 PM [978] OAK ATHLETICS -155 ( F LIRIANO -L / D MENGDEN -R )
1 unit bet pays 29 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-95, -22.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Green will be coming up from Triple-A to make a spot start for the Yanks, and they hope he can replicate his Minor League production at the MLB level. His 1.54 ERA in 14 starts is the best mark in the International League this season.
Cashner: The hard-throwing righty is set to return from the strained neck that forced him onto the disabled list in early June. Cashner threw 38 pitches for Class A Lake Elsinore in a rehab start Tuesday, allowing no runs on two hits.
Biggest OVER run: Twins (18-5-2 last 25)
Minnesota exploded for a season-high 17 runs against the Rangers on Saturday, riding a breakout 2-home run, 7-RBI game from rookie Max Kepler. Despite the worst record in baseball, the Twins have been involved in an astounding amount of high-scoring games since May 23. In a 37-game stretch, either Minnesota or its opponent has scored at least five runs in 31 of them, leading to the ?over? going 27-8-2. The Twins and Rangers are in the midst of seeing one another seven times between now and the All-Star break, which could lead to plenty of fireworks since Texas has scored at least five runs in eight of its last 10 games. Kyle Gibson (1-5, 5.12) shut out the White Sox over seven innings in his last start, but had been involved in games that climbed ?over? the posted total in three of his previous four outings. Rangers ace Cole Hamels (9-1, 2.60) might squash any hope of another big day at the plate for Minnesota, however, since he?s given up two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts, all wins. This total has been set at 8.5.
Orioles vs. Mariners
Play: Over 9
Baltimore has the No. 5 offense in baseball in runs scored, Seattle is No. 9. Baltimore is also 8th in on-base percentage and tops in slugging. The Over is 17-5-1 in the Orioles last 23 games vs. a right-handed starter. Baltimore goes with Ubaldo Jimenez (5-7, 6.64 ERA), who has struggled. Jimenez has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, but the Orioles, without any ready alternatives, will be forced to continue leaning on him in a starting role for the time being. The team is 8-1 over the total when he starts. The Over is 20-8 in Mariners last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Hisashi Iwakuma goes for Seattle with a 4.34 ERA and batters hitting .282 off him. The 10-3 in the Mariners last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Hottest pitcher: Jon Lester (9-3, 2.03 ERA)
After losing another Jake Arrieta start, Chicago looks to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Mets by turning to Lester, their ERA leader and lone lefty starter. The Cubs have lost only once in Lester?s last seven outings and watched him go 4-0 with a 1.41 ERA in June to move into second behind L.A.?s Clayton Kershaw among MLB?s ERA leaders. Lester lost a 4-2 decision to New York and Matt Harvey in Game 1 of last year?s NLCS and will look to stop a seven-game losing streak at the hands of the Mets that started last postseason. He?ll face Noah Syndergaard (8-3, 2.49), who outdueled Arrieta in NLCS Game 2 and has been New York?s best pitcher this year. Syndergaard is coming off surrendering five runs in just three innings to snap a personal six-game winning streak in an 11-4 loss at Washington on June 27. Although there have been rumors he?s been dealing with elbow pain, his velocity was normal and he reported feeling good. This is by far Sunday?s top pitching matchup.
ATLANTA +132 over Miami
Adam Conley drew some buzz from scouts this spring. He has followed that up by posting a 3.90 ERA after 16 starts but it's a mark that doesn't come with much underlying support. Stamina might be the culprit, as Conley?s skills diminish drastically the second and third time through the lineup. We?re also seeing an increase in Conley?s wildness. There are other things we?re not crazy about either. Conley brings a 1.36 WHIP into this game. He throws a lot of pitches to get through innings and that?s a bad sign that suggests he can?t put away hitters. He appears to be tiring and he?s overpriced against an Atlanta team that is playing some pretty good ball right now.
As the biggest underdog on yesterday?s board, Atlanta whacked Jose Fernandez and the Fish, 9-1. The Braves have won 10 of their past 17 games. Three of the losses over that span occurred against the red-hot Indians. The Braves have also scored 22 runs over their last three games so they are swinging some hot sticks right now and they figure to be even more jacked up playing at home on ESPN?s Sunday Night Baseball.
Whether you are a bettor or a fantasy player, put Matt Wisler on your radar immediately. Wisler had a strong pedigree when he arrived, ranking among the top 100 prospects in the Minor League Baseball Analyst in both 2014 (#37) and 2015 (#32). His transition to the majors was a tough one though, as he posted a 4.71 ERA in 20 appearances (19 starts) in 2015. He's lowered his ERA to 4.16 thus far in 2016 and it?s looking better each month. Wisler was the 2015 preseason No. 1 prospect for San Diego before he came over to the Braves in the Craig Kimbrel trade. The 6'3", 195-pound right-hander has a good feel for pitching with great control and a mix of pitches that already includes three plus ones. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, and he has a great slider in the mid-80s and a mid-70s curve that is effective. Wisler has now made 36 starts to begin his career and for the first 30 he was not generating enough K?s or swing and misses. However, that is starting to trend in the right direction and it?s a significant positive sign moving forward. Wisler has struck out 22 over his last 27 frames. He struck out nine over six innings in his last start with a 15% swing and miss rate. Wisler was obliterated by left-handed batters last season, but they have had much less success against him so far in 2016. It has taken Wisler some time to adjust to hitters at the highest level. However, his confidence is so much higher now than it was before now that he realizes he belongs and that he?s good. As un underdog in this price range, Wisler and the warm Braves offer up all the value here.
Coldest pitcher: Francisco Liriano (4-8, 5.33 ERA)
The Pirates have won the first two games in their series at Oakland after splitting in Seattle, so their West Coast trip is going extremely well, delivering them to within a game of .500 as they look for a sweep of the A?s. They?ll need to overcome Liriano?s slumping ways to get the job done since he?s pitched in a single victory over his last nine starts. The Dominican lefty has gotten through six innings only twice in his last seven and has surrendered at least four runs in five of six. Liriano has been even worse on the road, giving up 11 home runs in just 38.2 innings and is 1-4 with a 6.98 ERA outside of Pittsburgh. He?s had a pretty solid run with the Pirates, but the manner in which he?s coming apart is similar to how the bottom fell out for him in Minnesota. Oakland slugger Khris Davis is 4-for-12 against him with two homers.
Cole Hamels - 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. I've been pretty low on Hamels this year, but he keeps beating his xFIP and FIP by a ton, lowering his ERA to 2.60 despite a whopping 4.39 FIP. At least his walk rate is falling to 3.30 BB/9 after this. I don't love it, but with the way pitchers are throwing this year, you best hope that luck continues.
Betcha didn?t know: Brandon McCarthy is undefeated as a member of the Dodgers despite a 5.87 ERA. L.A., notorious for its lack of run support last season, averaged 7.75 runs per game in McCarthy's starts last April before he tore the UCL in his elbow and underwent Tommy John Surgery. McCarthy, who missed the entire 2010 season due to a shoulder surgery, will be pitching in the bigs for the first time in over 14 months following a rehab stint at Class A Rancho Cucamonga that begin on June 12. McCarthy went 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA in Class-A, striking out 11 and walking three. Colorado, who McCarthy shut out 7-0 in his best Dodgers start, will counter with Jon Gray (5-3, 4.83) to try and avoid a sweep. The Rockies have scored a single run in the first two games of the series.
Early returns suggest that the Colorado Rockies may have finally developed an area in which their franchise has sorely been lacking; Jon Gray has been impressive both in and out of Coors Field. This time he's out, as the Rockies conclude a series in Chavez Ravine against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Gray's 9.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 are excellent regardless, but even more so from a rookie.
The 24-year-old right-hander has pitched at least six frames in nine of his 13 outings, which is integral in DFS. Gray faces an offense that's weak against righties, and the Dodgers will also be without Joc Pederson. Additionally, his mound foe will be the returning Brandon McCarthy, who hasn't thrown a pitch, at least at the major league level, since April 2015. This all adds up to Gray being a solid DFS choice in all formats.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics
The Pirates had lost 12 of 14 games away from home going into the team?s Wednesday contest at Seattle. However, the Pirates salvaged a split of that two-game series with an 8-1 win and then Friday and Saturday, have beaten the A?s 7-3 and 4-2 (10 innings) to give the team a much-needed three-game winning streak. The Pirates look to complete a sweep of the A?s today at Oakland in the finale of their three-game interleague series, while also evening their record at 41-41 on the season. Pittsburgh has outscored the opposition 19-6 during its winning streak but Sunday?s starter Francisco Liriano (4-8, 5.33 ERA) hasn?t earned a win since May 24!
Liriano bested Arizona 12-1 in that one but has since made six starts, going 0-5 (team is 0-6) while posting a 7.12 ERA. He?s allowed 36 hits (including five HRs) and 24 walks during that stretch which has covered 30.1 innings. This from a pitcher who has had ERAs of 3.38 or lower in each of his past three seasons with Pittsburgh, going a combined 35-25. Getting the nod for Oakland is Daniel Mengden (1-3, 2.81 ERA), who is coming off his first career victory, an 8-3 triumph at San Francisco in which he gave up two runs and four hits in 7.2 innings. It marked the first time in four outings he did not serve up a home run but the rookie has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his four major-league starts.
Mengden will be facing Pittsburgh for the first time while Liriano has had mixed results against Oakland in his career, going 4-4 with a 4.14 ERA in 15 appearances (13 starts / teams are 6-7). Menden has 26 strikeouts and just nine walks over 25.2 innings and his confidence has grown with each major league start. "Every time you step on the rubber and get out there you gain experience and confidence and trust in yourself, as well," said Mengden, who will try to prevent the Pirates from sweeping the three-game series. "Getting used to the atmosphere, the type of hitters you're facing. The more and more you do it, the easier it gets, and I guess the more confidence you'll get. And I've been throwing well, so that always helps with the confidence and trusting my stuff. It's a lot of fun."
It's been 40 days since Liriano won a game and while that streak will eventually end, my bet says that will NOT be the case here!
N.Y. METS +110 over Chicago
On Friday night it was deGrom over Hammel in a wipeout. Yesterday it was Colon over Arrieta in a narrow victory. The Cubbies were favored both games and they?re favored again here. Chicago has now lost three in a row and five of eight. Their only three wins over that span occurred against Cincinnati. Chicago is a very good team but because of their great start and popularity, you would once again be paying a serious premium to wager on them here and that is something we never recommend doing.
The pitching matchup is obviously a marquee one. Jon Lester remains reliable, consistent, and effective. Lester continues to pound the zone early in the count, as his first-pitch strike rate has edged up and is nearing elite territory. The strikeouts are coming at an excellent rate as well, which puts his command well above our threshold for an effective starting pitcher. Lester has a BB/K split of 24/102 in 103 innings. With excellent control, a K-per-inning, a 48% groundball rate and "AAA" reliability, Lester is among the best. However, Noah Syndergaard is better.
Syndergaard has 115 K?s in 94 innings with just 15 walks issued. That?s as good as it gets. He has an overall 54% groundball rate and a 60% GB rate over his last three starts. His swing and miss rate is unmatched at 18%. Clayton Kershaw may be the best pitcher on the planet but Noah Syndergaard is damn close to being his equal and the fact that he?s a dog in his own barn is once again bordering on lunacy.
We should address the elephant in the room however. Syndergaard (elbow) is denying reports that he's pitching through a bone spur in his right elbow. ?I do not. No. My arm feels great. It's amazing what a little anti-inflammatories can do,' Syndergaard said?. He said there is nothing structurally wrong with his elbow. We believe him.
Colorado +120 over LOS ANGELES
This might be the biggest overlay on today?s board. Jonathan Gray is one of only seven starters in MLB who can claim the same great skills both with the bases empty and with runners on base. He has been victimized by a terrible and extremely unlucky 14% strand rate when guys are on base. Gray?s 4.83 ERA keeps his value way down but his xERA of 3.04 is one of the best in the league. Gray has 83 K?s in 76 innings with a 50% groundball rate. He is one of only five pitchers that have a groundball rate of 50% or more with more than a strikeout per inning. Gray is an absolute ace that is priced like J.A. Happ here. What?s even more ludicrous is that he?s priced like J.A. Happ against a guy making his first start in over a year!
Brandon McCarthy surprised everyone in 2014 with both skills growth and a random stretch of good health. The latter ended early in 2015, as he underwent TJS in late April, projecting for a mid-2016 return. That projection was accurate and now McCarthy is 32-years-old. McCarthy has hardly been scintillating in his rehab as suggested by the seven earned runs allowed in 13 innings over four games. And his longest start has been five innings. But McCarthy has posted an 11/3 K/BB while keeping the ball on the ground during his rehab. And in the immediate wake of Clayton Kershaw?s DL stint, the Dodgers are looking for an experienced arm that might eat five innings and keep them in a game or two. This line is so flawed because not many understand how good Jonathan Gray really is and how ordinary the Dodgers offense really is. This is a must bet.
Pittsburgh +131 over OAKLAND
Francisco Liriano has a 5.33 ERA after 15 starts. His ERA and xERA are both high because his walks are way up. Liriano has walked 54 batters in 83 innings and no pitcher can survive a walk rate that high. However, Liriano is working with the best pitching coach in the majors. If he?s throwing strikes, he?s elite. We have seen him go through stretches like this in the past before it gets corrected for a period of time. Nobody knows when that?ll happen but we?re willing to gamble that he?s better today because the price is worth the risk. Liriano has 83 K?s in 83 innings with a 50% groundball rate. He also has a plethora of experience and when he?s on his game, he?s an ace. Now he?s a significant dog against a rookie with four MLB starts to his name. If that doesn?t motivate Liriano, nothing will.
In two of his four starts thus far, Daniel Mengden has walked seven batters in 13.1 combined innings. The A?s have lost three of his four starts to Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Texas. He does have 26 K?s in 25 frames but both Milwaukee and Cincinnati are big strikeout teams and neither saw him before. Four starts into his career and there is now plenty of film on Mengden. Don?t get us wrong, as this kid has lots of upside not to mention a very good minor-league pedigree. However, he was in Double-A in April and now he?s a favorite over Liriano in June. Even if Mengden is GREAT today, it may not matter if the A?s are unable to score runs. When Mengden lost to Texas 2-1 on June 16, Colby Lewis took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against them. It?s also worth noting that Mengden has been taken yard in every start with the exception of his last one at San Francisco?s AT&T Park at night. Forget the rookie for a second, as the A?s aren?t good enough to be priced in this range against the Pirates.
