DR. BOB NFL...
3 Star Selection
***PITTSBURGH 21 New England (-3.0) 14
I never imagined that a team with a 16-1 record would be an underdog at home in a
playoff game, but that's the scenario we have here. When I was asked on Sunday afternoon what I thought the line on this game would be, I said that Pittsburgh should be favored by 3 ? points, but I'd probably make the line 2 ? or 3 out of respect for the Patriots.
I was shocked when I saw that New England was favored by 3 points. It's funny how
everyone was questioning the merits of the Patriots prior to last week's game against
the Colts, who most predicted would win that game (I leaned with NE), and a week later
the Pats are being hailed as too good to lose ? even on the road to a 16-1 team. It
strikes me that the public, rather than admitting they were wrong about how good the
Colts are, have simply come to the conclusion that the Patriots must be REALLY good to
have beaten the Colts so easily. Throw in the fact that Pittsburgh struggled to beat the Jets and you have the makings of a ridiculous pointspread in this game. The only reason
the Steelers struggled to beat the Jets was their -2 in turnover margin with one of
those interceptions being returned for an 86 yard touchdown. The Steelers should be
applauded for winning a game in which they were -2 in turnover margin, which is tough to
do, and Pittsburgh out-played the Jets from the line of scrimmage 364 yards (at 4.9
yards per play) to 275 yards (at 4.4 yppl). That game was the only time in Ben
Roethlisberger's 15 starts that the Steelers turned the ball over more than twice (NE
has had 3 or more turnovers 5 times), so it's not likely that the Steelers will have
similar turnover issues this week. These teams match up pretty evenly on both offense
and defense, as both teams have a rushing attack that rates at 0.1 ypr better than
average and a highly efficient quarterback, with Roethlisberger rating at 1.3 yards per pass play better than average (7.2 yppp against teams that allow a combined 5.9 yppp on
defense) and Brady rating at 1.0 yppp better than average (7.0 yppp against teams that
allow 6.0 yppp). Pittsburgh has better defensive numbers than the Patriots for the
season, but New England has actually been better defensively since Ty Law has been
injured, as Law didn't support the run and the Pats defend the run a lot better since
he's been out. New England has yielded just 3.5 ypr and 5.7 yppp (to teams that combine
to average 4.1 ypr and 6.3 yppp) in games without Law, with the exception of their
regular season finale against the 49ers when backups got a lot of snaps. Pittsburgh's
defense is nearly as good, allowing 3.7 ypr and 5.3 yppp (to teams that combine to
average 4.1 ypr and 5.9 yppp) in all games excluding their season finale against
Buffalo. New England was without star running back Corey Dillon in their 20-34 week 8
loss at Pittsburgh and I took the Pats' offensive stats from that game out when I
calculated the math on this game. My math model would still favor the Steelers by 1 ?
points if this were a regular season game, but home field advantage in the playoffs is 2 ? points higher than in the regular season, so the math projects Pittsburgh by 4 points in this game. The Steelers also apply to a 43-12-1 ATS playoff home team situation and home underdogs are 18-6 ATS in playoff games since 1976. I've been hearing everywhere that Bill Belichick hasn't lost to a quarterback he's facing for a second time in a season, but have people forgotten that Ben Roethlisberger is a quarterback that hasn't lost a football game that he's started in over 2 years? With the line value and the situation strongly favoring the Steelers I will make them a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more. Downgrade Pittsburgh to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of less than 3points.
3 Star Selection
***PITTSBURGH 21 New England (-3.0) 14
I never imagined that a team with a 16-1 record would be an underdog at home in a
playoff game, but that's the scenario we have here. When I was asked on Sunday afternoon what I thought the line on this game would be, I said that Pittsburgh should be favored by 3 ? points, but I'd probably make the line 2 ? or 3 out of respect for the Patriots.
I was shocked when I saw that New England was favored by 3 points. It's funny how
everyone was questioning the merits of the Patriots prior to last week's game against
the Colts, who most predicted would win that game (I leaned with NE), and a week later
the Pats are being hailed as too good to lose ? even on the road to a 16-1 team. It
strikes me that the public, rather than admitting they were wrong about how good the
Colts are, have simply come to the conclusion that the Patriots must be REALLY good to
have beaten the Colts so easily. Throw in the fact that Pittsburgh struggled to beat the Jets and you have the makings of a ridiculous pointspread in this game. The only reason
the Steelers struggled to beat the Jets was their -2 in turnover margin with one of
those interceptions being returned for an 86 yard touchdown. The Steelers should be
applauded for winning a game in which they were -2 in turnover margin, which is tough to
do, and Pittsburgh out-played the Jets from the line of scrimmage 364 yards (at 4.9
yards per play) to 275 yards (at 4.4 yppl). That game was the only time in Ben
Roethlisberger's 15 starts that the Steelers turned the ball over more than twice (NE
has had 3 or more turnovers 5 times), so it's not likely that the Steelers will have
similar turnover issues this week. These teams match up pretty evenly on both offense
and defense, as both teams have a rushing attack that rates at 0.1 ypr better than
average and a highly efficient quarterback, with Roethlisberger rating at 1.3 yards per pass play better than average (7.2 yppp against teams that allow a combined 5.9 yppp on
defense) and Brady rating at 1.0 yppp better than average (7.0 yppp against teams that
allow 6.0 yppp). Pittsburgh has better defensive numbers than the Patriots for the
season, but New England has actually been better defensively since Ty Law has been
injured, as Law didn't support the run and the Pats defend the run a lot better since
he's been out. New England has yielded just 3.5 ypr and 5.7 yppp (to teams that combine
to average 4.1 ypr and 6.3 yppp) in games without Law, with the exception of their
regular season finale against the 49ers when backups got a lot of snaps. Pittsburgh's
defense is nearly as good, allowing 3.7 ypr and 5.3 yppp (to teams that combine to
average 4.1 ypr and 5.9 yppp) in all games excluding their season finale against
Buffalo. New England was without star running back Corey Dillon in their 20-34 week 8
loss at Pittsburgh and I took the Pats' offensive stats from that game out when I
calculated the math on this game. My math model would still favor the Steelers by 1 ?
points if this were a regular season game, but home field advantage in the playoffs is 2 ? points higher than in the regular season, so the math projects Pittsburgh by 4 points in this game. The Steelers also apply to a 43-12-1 ATS playoff home team situation and home underdogs are 18-6 ATS in playoff games since 1976. I've been hearing everywhere that Bill Belichick hasn't lost to a quarterback he's facing for a second time in a season, but have people forgotten that Ben Roethlisberger is a quarterback that hasn't lost a football game that he's started in over 2 years? With the line value and the situation strongly favoring the Steelers I will make them a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more. Downgrade Pittsburgh to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of less than 3points.
