Super 12 semifinals

[Anders]

Super 12 semifinals

The points spreads are out at some books for the two big matches this weekend. The ACT Brumbies, favourites to win the Super 12 title all season after losing a nailbiter to the Canterbury Crusaders in 2000, are favoured at -8.5 pt start against the Queensland Reds at Bruce Stadium on Saturday night. The Sharks, the surprise package of the 2001 season after finishing last the previous year, are a -3.5 favourite when they host fellow Sth Africans the Cats early Sunday morning.

The Brumbies get the same start (-8.5) as they did against the Chiefs in the last round of the regular season at home last weekend. It took them approximately six minutes to beat that spread, racing out to a 14-0 lead, and with the Chiefs having two men in the sinbin either side of halftime, the rampaging Brumbies were never troubled in covering as they handed out a 49-6 hiding. Some may have expected the hosts to open as double digit chalks - say -10.5 - but the bookmakers will have been swayed by a couple of things. Winning margins in matches between these two inter-state foes have always been tight affairs in the Super 12. In fact, all of them have been in single figures. And while the Reds have only beaten the Brumbies once in six encounters, the visitors have virtually assured their place in the last four this season by keeping matches close even if they went down - the Reds picked up eight bonus pts throughout their campaign.
Some "covers" info from the regular season: Queensland have been an absolute joy for the punters; going 9-2 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. On the road, they are a noteworthy 5-0 ATS and 2-3 Straight Up (SU), all as underdogs. The Brumbies went 8-3 ATS with a late season surge and are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home, all as faves.

The Sharks and Cats also have a history of close encounters, with the Cats winning their last two encounters by one point each time. In the six matches between the two sides, the home team has won four and the away side two - with each team winning twice at home and once on the road. It's no surprise that the bookmakers see little more than a penalty goal between the two teams - goalkickers have accounted for more than half the total points in previous encounters. And the Cats could esily be regarded as the SA equivalent of the Reds - 10 of their 11 matches in the regular season where decided either for or against Laurie Mains' team by less than 13 pts.
Some "covers" info from the regular season: The Sharks were also friendly to the punters, going 8-3 ATS. They were unbeaten at home in 5 matches and 4-1 ATS. The Cats, somewhat surprisingly, were a poor 3-8 ATS, resulting mainly from a result of failing to cover the spread as home favourites (1-4 ATS). On the road, they went 3-3 SU and 2-2 ATS as a road dog.

Back on Friday (NZ time) with game previews and picks.

Anders

 

[Anders]

Season to date: 25-12 (67.57%)

Game 1) ACT Brumbies v Queensland Reds, Bruce Stadium
Brumbies -8.5

The first of the two semifinals will see the hosts start as hot favourites to make their second successive final and their third in five years. Despite a few minor hiccups along the way, the Brumbies have looked like a side all season that has focussed on making amends for their upset loss to the Crusaders at home in last year's final. They stormed all over the Chiefs in merciless fashion last weekend and have the knowledge they were eight points better than their opponents on Saturday when the two teams met in the regular season encounter at Ballymore.
The war of words has been in full swing this week after Brumbies utility back Rod Kafer said former ACT defensive coach John Muggleton was too thick too assist the Reds in their preparation. That won't have pleased coach Eddie Jones, who would have preferred to play down the favourite's build-up. But the Brumbies will still be motivated by their impression that they are still regarded as the poor relations of Australian rugby despite being the best Aussie Super 12 team since the competition's inception.

I don't think there's any question that the Brumbies will win SU here. But the spread is very tough to cover in a winner take all match at -8.5. It becomes even tougher when you look at how the Reds have fared against the spread this season, particularly in the role of road underdog. The Reds have often failed to flatter throughout but have quietly compiled a magnificent 9-2 ATS record. And what's better for underdog punters is their road record of 5-0 ATS - their only failure to cover on the road came when they were favoured. They have big-time players in key positions - Wallaby lock and skipper John Eales, hooker Michael Foley, centre Daniel Herbert and outstanding fullback Chris Latham, who may again be named Australian Player of the Super 12 for 2001. Add in first-five Elton Flatley, who has been the best goalkicker in the comp averaging approximately 83%. But there's a worry that the Reds may have seen better days - Eales, Foley, Flatley, Herbert, Mark Connors and Toutai Kefu all played in the Reds team beaten in the 1996 semifinal in Super 12's debut season.

The Brumbies also have a host of players from their first appearance in the final in 1997 - Stephen Larkham, Kafer, George Gregan, David Giffin, Owen Finegan, James Holbeck, Justin Harrison and Joe Roff. But the core of that group is a younger one than the Reds.

In the major personnel change likely for the game,. Larkham appears certain to return at first-five after resting a hamstring strain against the Chiefs. That will push Kafer out one spot in a minor reshuffle only likely to make the Brumbies a smoother unit than the one that railroaded the Chiefs. Hooker Jeremy Paul is in doubt with a hamstring strain but should play. Injury-plagued Reds winger Ben Tune appears unlikley to play after injuring his shoulder against the Waratahs last weekend as the Reds won to make the top four. He could be replaced by either Junior Pelesasa or Ricky Nalatu.

I expect the Brumbies to attack the Reds out wide while endeavouring to keep the ball away from Latham, who has a wonderful punt and return kick and chase game. The wingers - Nathan Williams and either Pelesasa or Nalatu are definite weak links for the visitors. The Gregan/Larkham/Finnegan combination will also severely test Flatley, halfback Jacob Raulunui and the Reds back row.

While the Reds may believe they can unhinge a few secrets to the Brumbies game, it's unlikely as the ACT outfit have changed things around under new defensive coaches, which include David Barnhill. And the Reds never looked like breaking the Brumbies line when they went try-less at Ballymore - the Brumbies defensive qualities often get overlooked in comparison to their offensive power and slickness (just 204 pts against compared to the Reds' 277).

I'm very wary of the number they have to cover but will recommend a play on the Brumbies for a couple of reasons. On a cool night in the capital, the home team will be fired by a hugely vocal, packed, one-eyed crowd which will make Bruce Stadium a seething cauldron of pro-Brumbies noise - never underestimate the effect of that on the officials too (worked a treat in last weekend's match!).

As most people who follow the code will also be seeking "action" on this game - and given the fact that my season record allows me a little leeway in having a dabble without wrecking a very tidy profit margin - I'm going to take the team on a mission.

PLAY ACT BRUMBIES -8.5

GLTA

 

[Anders]

Super 12 semifinals:

Game 2) Sharks v Cats, Asba Stadium, Durban, SA
Sharks -3.5

Strangely enough, both teams come into this sudden-death affair of unflattering efforts. The Sharks clinched the home advantage by beating the Stormers away, which was meritorious in itself, but the performance, especially in the second half, left a lot to be desired as coach Rudolf Straelui's troops turned over far too much ball. The Cats were even worse, losing to the Bulls in a display that would have given coach Laurie Mains kittens.
When these two teams clashed in the regular season, the Cats snuck a one point win in a titanic battle. That was at a stage of the season when both teams were playing strongly in the republic. They followed that up with an excellent pair of away wins each in NZ but both faded towards the end of the regular season and there is a distinct feeling both teams may have peaked.
The Sharks have definitely been the more impressive of the two. They play a no-frills, hard-nosed style which suits their players. Defensively both teams are very good (246 pts against for the Sharks, 244 for the Cats) but the Cats have had real troubles in creating a host of points (just 285 for, worse than the Crusaders, Hurricanes, Waratahs and Chiefs for example). While the Sharks don't flow onto attack either, they are particularly deadly at getting their numbers in the right places for turnover ball.
This match should be won up front. The Sharks have a slight advantage there thru the likes of outstanding young hooker John Smit, wily veteran lock Mark Andrews and the free running beanpole Albert van den Berg. The Cats' greatest strength is their wonderful loose trio of Erasmus, Venter and Vos - no doubt the Sharks will endeavour to tie them up in close contact stuff.
This will be tight, but it's not a big number for the home side to cover in front of a fervent crowd when they haven't lost there this year.

PLAY SHARKS -3.5

GLTA

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sharks win.

Nice shootin, Anders.

Thx, man.

 

[Anders]

Brumbies 30 Reds 6

Sharks 30 Cats 12

2-0 for the semis

Might have to recommend a wager for the final game of the season now ....