boyah in my thread also same fugging ratings
DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS
Patriots own it
Patriots Defense ranked #1 in points allowed 250 points or 15.6 ppg.
Patriots Defense ranked #8 in yards allowed 326 ypg.
Falcons Defense ranked #25 in yards allowed 371 ypg.
Patriots win by 17 points
A lil mathematical analysis based on your inputs Blitz & Scrappy!!
Yards per play, yards per pt on offense for both teams, compare that to yards per play and yards per pt on defense, factor in turnover margins and special teams average start from scrimmage. If you did this last weekend you would have had Atlanta beating Green Bay by 9 pts and New England beating Pittsburgh by 11 pts.
So I'll take both team's averages and put them in analysis to give you an example for the Super Bowl, mind you there is no home field advantage though New England is 4-1 at NRG field including a super bowl win over the Panthers back in the early 2000's.
So here ya go, NE has a score of 1 pt for every 13.67 yrds they get, they give up 1 pt for every 20.8 yrds they allow
Atlanta scores 1 pt for every 12.22 yrds they get, they give up 1 pt for every 14.8 yrds they allow
You take both team's yrds on offense and divided into total pts per game, for NE you get 13.67 and Atlanta gives up 14.8, so NE is 14.2 yrds per every 1 pt they score, they should rack up 377.9 yrds vs Atlanta or
26.6 pts
You take Atlanta at 12.22 yrds per pt and NE giving up 20.8 yrds per pt and you get an ave of 16.52 yrds per point, Atlanta should get
22.6 pts vs NE
These numbers factor in no turnovers and poor field position based on kicking game.
This shows NE winning by 4 pts with no other factors in this game and a score of 26-22, or 48 total pts.
Are you following me?
Now factor in both kicking games, Kickoffs and punts, ave return yrds and ave return yrds allowed
Atlanta averages 46.8 yrds per punt, a net of 41.6 yrds, they allow 9.6 yrds per punt return
New England averages 44.7 yrds per punt, a net of 41.4 yrds, they allow 5.0 yrds per return
On kickoffs, Atlanta averages 21 yrds per kick return while allowing 22.6 yrds per kick return, Atlanta averages 11.4 yrds per punt return on offense
New England averages 18.7 yrds per kick return while allowing 19.3 yrds per kick return, New England averages 6.9 yrds per punt retunr and allows 5.0 yrds per punt return.
Edge Atlanta in kicking game
NE Kicker Gostkowki 27 of 32 FG made
Atl Kicker Bryant 34 of 37 FG made
Factor these numbers in and you have a
pick 'em line! Line is NE -3 from -105 to -120, total of 59 1/2 after opening at 57 1/2.
Atlanta has a +1 turnover edge in takeaways vs NE.
This feel for me has Atlanta very similar to how NY Giants played NE, other than Atlanta has a much better passing game and NY Giants had a much better defensive team. NE had the same type of defense it had in it's super bowl losses to the Giants, but has a similar defense to when they beat Seattle.
New England edge for post-season savvy and how many trips Brady bunch and shit has been to the Big ONE.
Matty Ice is a Super Bowl Virgin, much like Brett Favre was when Green Bay beat New England in '97 and when John Elway won his first Super Bowl vs Green Bay in '98.
