SUPER BOWL INFO

[RAYMOND]

Eagles vs. AFC: Philadelphia rolled over NFC teams this season, going 13-1 straight up and 11-3 against the number. However, against AFC teams the Eagles were 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS! That included a 27-3 loss at Pittsburgh.



Pats vs. NFC: New England was a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS against NFC teams. Since the AFC is considered the stronger conference this season, note that New England is 12-2 SU, 9-4 versus the AFC.



Dogs: The Eagles were 0-2 SU/ATS as an underdog this season, getting outscored by a 29-9 average in those games. Of course, those games came late in the year when they had already wrapped things up. The Patriots are 13-2 SU/10-4-1 ATS as a favorite.



Road Play: This is, technically, a neutral site for both teams, of course. The Eagles are 4-4 ATS on the road where they?ve outscored the opposition by a 23-18 average. The Patriots are 7-2 SU/ATS on the road where they?ve outscored the opposition by a 31-20 average.



Finally, these teams met last season, so there is at least one recent Andy Reid/Bill Belichick game to examine. In Week 2 of 2003, Philadelphia was a four-point home favorite, but the Patriots dominated in a 31-10 rout. That came a week after New England?s 31-0 loss at Buffalo. New England?s defense forced six turnovers (4 fumbles) and held the Eagles to 268 total yards. The Patriots passed for 247 yards. New England didn?t have a lot of rushing yardage (76), but did run for 4.1 yards per carry ? and remember, they didn?t have Corey Dillon, either. New England also dominated in time of possession, 36:35 to 23:25.

 

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Eagles? defensive line versus the Patriots? offensive line.


DE - Derrick Burges
DT - Hollis Thomas
DT - Corey Simon
DE - Jevon Kearse
_______VS._________
OG - Steve Neal
OT - Brandon Gorin
C - Dan Koppen
OG - Joe Andruzzi
OT - Matt Light


The Eagles? defense sacked opposing quarterbacks 47 times during the regular season, ranked second in the league behind Atlanta?s top-number of 48. The front-four has accounted for 31 of the 47 sacks, which shows that blitzing isn?t always necessary in Jim Johnson?s scheme.



All the talk in Philadelphia this offseason was the signing of Pro Bowl wide receiver Terrell Owens. However, another mound of cash was given to defensive end Jevon Kearse. The Eagles inked the six-year veteran after two injury plagued seasons in Tennessee.



Kearse hasn?t put up stellar numbers (7.5 sacks), but his presence has commanded double-teams from opponents. One player taking advantage of ?The Freak? has been third-year end Derrick Burgess. Last week, Burgess brought down Michael Vick twice and was instrumental in containing No. 7.



Kearse (2), Burgess (2) and Thomas have accounted for five of the Eagles? seven sacks in their two postseason victories.



Defensive tackles Darwin Walker, Sam Rayburn and Paul Grasmanis offer a ton of depth and experience. Walker and Rayburn see more action during the game, while Grasmanis is used in short-yardage situations.



Veteran defensive end Hugh Douglas has become more of a cheerleader in the playoffs than a presence. The former sack-happy player would probably be scrutinized more if the Eagles weren?t as successful. His brashness and big mouth has been overshadowed with a pathetic 15 tackles and three sacks during the season.



If there is a weakness and not a glaring one on the Eagles? line, then it?s the run defense. The unit is allowing 119 YPG on the ground, which is the middle of the pack in the league. Still, the Vikings (98) or Falcons (99) were unable to top that mark in the first two playoff games.



When you talk about New England?s offense, you rarely hear the names of Light, Andruzzi and even Neal. Heck, the only time I can remember somebody mentioning an offensive lineman from New England was when former Patriots? linemen Damien Woody signed a big deal in the offseason with the Detroit Lions.




Matt Light has been a force and a protector for the Pats? offense. (AP Images)

Joe Andruzzi and Matt Light anchor the left side of the line, which appears to be the strength of this team. This group is young and has been able to fill in spots where needed. A perfect example is right tackle Brandon Gorin. The third-year player became a starter midway through the season and has exceled with a veteran bunch.



Center Dan Koppen has filled in nicely for Woody and certainly comes from a long line of Boston College alumni that have fared well in the trenches. Koppen had a great game against the Steelers? linebackers and will have to duplicate that performance against the quick Philadelphia defense.


The group has led a rushing attack that has averaged 133.4 YPG, ranked seventh in the league. Also, offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss likes to make these guys work, averaging 32.8 attempts per game, which is the fourth most in the league.



The Pats racked up 126 yards in the AFC Championship against the Steelers, who were holding teams to a league-best 81 YPG on the ground. Corey Dillon (73) and Kevin Faulk (20) did most of the damage and have been productive all season long.



Dillon posted 1,635 yards this season, which is the most in his eight-year career. Only eight teams have sent a running back to the Super Bowl that has surpassed 1,500 yards in as season. Dillon becomes the ninth running back to do so. The other eight backs are an impressive 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the big game. The lone loss came in Super Bowl XXXIII, when Denver dropped Atlanta 34-19 as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. The Falcons were led by Jamal Anderson in that game, but he was he uprooted by a fellow named Terrell Davis. T.D. just so happened to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark in the same season for the Broncos.



A quarterback is the center of attention for any team and Tom Brady is no exception. Brady?s success could be attributed to his own talent or even his receivers. But, it?s rare to see the spotlight shined on o-line. Brady was sacked just 26 times on the season, ranked fifth in the league. New England?s offensive line will be tested this week against a Philadelphia defense that likes to send six and sometimes seven off the ends. Sometimes if you live by the blitz, then it leaves you to die by the blitz.



If you break it down by the numbers, then you would expect the Eagles to tally at least three sacks in the Super Bowl, considering they?re averaging just under that number per game. Keep in mind that Brady faced a ferocious pass rush in last year?s Super Bowl against Carolina. Sure enough, Brady never hit the turf and wound up winning his second straight Super Bowl MVP.

 

[RAYMOND]

Philadelphia's linebackers versus New England?s running backs

Past Super Bowl champions are loaded with teams that could stop the run, and teams that could control the clock through a devastating ground game. Some extreme examples are the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XX, and the New York Giants of Super Bowl XXV. The Bears limited the Patriots to an incredible seven yards rushing en route to a 46-10 blowout victory. New York ran past Buffalo, 20-19, by controlling the ball 40:33.

Neither one of those extremes should play out at Jacksonville?s Alltel Stadium on Super Bowl Sunday, but there are a couple of interesting matchups on the table. VegasInsider.com has already focused on New England?s offensive line against Philadelphia?s defensive line, now we?ll shift our attention to the Patriots? ground game versus the Eagles? linebackers.

New England posted 27.7 points per game during the regular season, while rushing for 137.2 yards per contest. The Patriots? ground game ranked sixth in the league. Philadelphia?s defense surrendered an average of 15.8 points per game and 116.6 yards rushing. The rushing defense was 14th in the league

New England running back Corey Dillon has the most rushing yards this postseason with 217 yards on 47 carries (4.6 yards per carry). The former Washington Huskies star earned 144 yards against Indianapolis, and 73 yards versus Pittsburgh.

Dillon finished the regular season third on the rushing list behind New York?s Curtis Martin and Seattle?s Shaun Alexander. Dillon wrapped up the regular campaign with 1,635 yards rushing with 12 touchdowns. He also caught 15 passes out of the backfield for 103 yards (6.9 yards per catch average) with a score.

Backup Kevin Faulk has accounted for 14 carries for 76 yards (5.4 yards per carry average) with no touchdowns this postseason. The sixth-year pro did run off a 17-yard gain versus Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship. His best effort occurred versus Indianapolis when he had 11 carries for 56 yards, along with one catch for an additional 11 yards.

Philadelphia had the daunting task of shutting down Atlanta?s running attack in the NFC Championship. The Eagles limited the Falcons to 99 yards rushing on 26 carries (3.8 yards per carry average). Atlanta running back Warrick Dunn had 15 carries for 59 yards, while quarterback Michael Vick ran four times for 26 yards. Vick ran off a 13-yard run, the longest for the team all day.

Dunn is second in the postseason with 201 yards on the ground, and Vick is fifth with 145. Atlanta led the playoffs in rushing yards, while New England is third with 168 yards per contest and three touchdowns.

Philadelphia has no fumble recoveries this postseason, but three interceptions. Minnesota managed 97 yards rushing on 21 attempts versus the Eagles, good for a 4.6 yards per carry average. The Vikings? longest run of the afternoon was 18 yards, the best against the Eagles this postseason.

New England hasn?t relied on a strong rushing game to win two titles the previous three years. Running back Antowain Smith had 18 carries for 92 yards in the Super Bowl XXXVI victory over St. Louis, as the team as a whole ran for 133 yards. The Patriots had 134 yards passing in that dramatic 20-17 victory for their first Super Bowl championship.

Coach Bill Belichick?s team slipped past Carolina last year in Super Bowl XXXVIII by running 35 times for 127 yards (3.6 yards per rush average). Smith had 26 carries for 83 yards and a score, while his longest rush was just nine yards. Quarterback Tom Brady passed for 354 yards in the victory, to clinch his second Super Bowl MVP award.

Philadelphia middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter has enjoyed a monster postseason, racking up 13 tackles and two assists in two games to lead the team. He is the only Eagles player in the top-30 for tackles this postseason. Trotter also has an interception that he returned 35 yards against Minnesota.

Linebacker Keith Adams has racked up 10 solo tackles and an assist, while Ike Reese has three tackles and two assists along with an interception that he returned three yards. Nate Wayne has two solo tackles and two assists, while also combining with Trotter for a sack. Dhani Jones has a pair of solo tackles and one assist in the two playoff games.

Trotter started the season playing on special teams, but worked his way up to the starting lineup halfway through the season and is scheduled to play in the Pro Bowl. Philadelphia?s run defense surrendered an average of 130.6 yards per contest, and an average of 4.7 yards per carry the first eight games.

With Trotter in the starting lineup, the Eagles improved to yielding just 83.5 yards per game and an average of 3.5 yards per attempt. That is not including the last two games of the regular season when Philadelphia rested starters and surrendered both games.

Two linebackers have been named Super Bowl MVP, and eight defensive players overall. Dallas linebacker Chuck Howley became the first defensive MVP in Super Bowl V, and the only player to win the award while playing for the losing team. Baltimore?s Ray Lewis won the award in Super Bowl XXXV as the Ravens shut down the Giants, 34-7.

Seven running backs have been selected Super Bowl MVP, but none since Denver?s Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII.

 

[RAYMOND]

NEW ENGLAND (16 - 2) vs. PHILADELPHIA (15 - 3) - 2/6/2005, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-1 ATS (+4.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-21 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

New England Patriots
11-3 ATS off a win
9-1 ATS off a win by 10+ points


Philadelphia Eagles
11-2 Under off a win
6-0 Under playing with rest

 

[RAYMOND]

Eagles vs. AFC: Philadelphia rolled over NFC teams this season, going 13-1 straight up and 11-3 against the number. However, against AFC teams the Eagles were 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS! That included a 27-3 loss at Pittsburgh.



Pats vs. NFC: New England was a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS against NFC teams. Since the AFC is considered the stronger conference this season, note that New England is 12-2 SU, 9-4 versus the AFC.



Dogs: The Eagles were 0-2 SU/ATS as an underdog this season, getting outscored by a 29-9 average in those games. Of course, those games came late in the year when they had already wrapped things up. The Patriots are 13-2 SU/10-4-1 ATS as a favorite.



Road Play: This is, technically, a neutral site for both teams, of course. The Eagles are 4-4 ATS on the road where they?ve outscored the opposition by a 23-18 average. The Patriots are 7-2 SU/ATS on the road where they?ve outscored the opposition by a 31-20 average.



Finally, these teams met last season, so there is at least one recent Andy Reid/Bill Belichick game to examine. In Week 2 of 2003, Philadelphia was a four-point home favorite, but the Patriots dominated in a 31-10 rout. That came a week after New England?s 31-0 loss at Buffalo. New England?s defense forced six turnovers (4 fumbles) and held the Eagles to 268 total yards. The Patriots passed for 247 yards. New England didn?t have a lot of rushing yardage (76), but did run for 4.1 yards per carry ? and remember, they didn?t have Corey Dillon, either. New England also dominated in time of possession, 36:35 to 23:25.

 

[RAYMOND]

AFC vs. NFC: The NFC holds a 21-17 straight up edge over the AFC. Also, the NFC is 20-15 against the spread with three pushes against its foe. However, the AFC has gone 5-3 SU and an impressive 5-1-2 ATS in the last seven Super Bowls.



The biggest margin of victory for the AFC was 27 points in Super Bowl XXXV, when Baltimore crushed the N.Y. Giants 34-7 as a three-point favorite. The NFC has won an eye opening 17 of its 21 Super Bowl?s by double-digits. It?s largest chest pounding came in 1990 after San Francisco crushed Denver 55-10 for an easy 45-point victory.



Favorite vs. Underdog: If you?re looking to make a money-line play on the game, perhaps you should look for value. The favorite has gone 24-14 SU and 18-17-3 ATS. An upset is very possible, but the chalk has still been winning outright at a 63 percent clip. Check out this stat! Only six times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the number. This number includes three pushes and last year?s Patriots 32-29 victory over Carolina in Super Bowl XXXVIII, which saw the Panthers cover as seven-point underdogs.



?Dog players should definitely give the money line a shot. The Eagles are a promising plus-220 (Bet $100 to win $220) ticket, while chalk eaters can bang the Patriots at a price of minus-300 (Bet $300 to win $100). The N.Y. Jets still remain the biggest underdog to win outright after upsetting Indianapolis 16-7 as a 17-point ?dog in Super Bowl III.



Over vs. Under: Oddsmakers didn?t start creating totals until 1982 when San Francisco and Cincinnati clashed in Super Bowl XVI. Sure enough, this game was the only total landed on the closing number of 47, as the Niners beat the Bengals, 26-21. In the other 22 contests with a total, the fans have gotten to see some fireworks. The ?over? is a solid 15-7 (66%), including six out of the last eight big games.



The total opened at 47, but has since been pushed to 48. You really can?t blame oddsmakers in this spot, since the championship round saw the ?over? cash twice. Also, the ?over?



Parlay Combinations: The Super Bowl will crown a champion and will also close the book on pro football wagering for the year, unless you?re looking to get a fix on the Pro Bowl. Some might think it?s hard enough to pick the winner in any sport, but try nailing both the side and the total could be looked at as a shot in the dark. As stated earlier, totals were only posted in 1982, but we still have a sample of 23 games to see which combination happened more often than others.



Normally, you would expect the books to clean up on the public?s guessing game. However, the combination of ?favorite/over? has occured in nine of the last 23 Super Bowl games. That?s an incredible 40 percent for laying the wood in a shootout. The ?underdog/over? and ?underdog/under? both posted identical numbers, hitting five times each. The least likely combination to happen since 1982 has been the ?favorite/under?, which happened once. The only instance happened in Super Bowl XVIII, when Dallas stifled Buffalo 30-13 as a 10 1/2-point favorite. The combined 43 points dipped ?under? the closing total of 50.



Dome vs. Grass: Alltel Stadium holds 73,000, which is the 10th largest football venue in the league. This game will be played on grass for just the third time in the last six years. Most people would expect the indoor track to feature a faster game and the opposite with playing on grass. However, six of the last seven Super Bowls have easily eclipsed the ?over? when played outdoors.



Keep an eye on weather during the next two weeks, as the projected forecast is expected between the sixties and seventies with scattered showers in the area. The Patriots and Eagles have made a combined five appearances in the Super Bowl. Surprisingly, four of the five games were being in domes. You can make a case that all five contests were played indoors, since last year?s game was played at Reliant Stadium, which has a retractable roof.



Sunshine State: This will be the 12th Super Bowl played in the state of Florida and the first meeting in Jacksonville. Miami has hosted the venue eight times, while Tampa Bay has welcomed the Super Bowl three times. The favorite is 7-4 SU in the big game, but only 4-6-1 ATS when played in the pan-handle state. The ?over/under? is 3-3 in games with a listed total in Florida.

 

[RAYMOND]

Dream Super Bowl could turn into bookie's nightmare
Stephen Nover

The New England Patriots hadn?t even finished dusting off the Pittsburgh Steelers this past Sunday and BetWWTS.com already had taken $60,000 in Super Bowl wagers.

?I haven?t seen this much action on a Super Bowl at this stage before,? said Stuart Doyle, wagering director for BetWWTS.com.

Doyle wouldn?t be surprised if BetWWTS.com handles more than $1.5 million on the Patriots-Eagles matchup. He believes this Super Bowl will surpass the amount bet on any other single game in the company?s 12-year history.

Nevada hotels are bracing for a record Super Bowl handle, too, after taking in $81.2 million on Super Bowl wagers last year. This year?s betting figure could approach the $100 million mark in Nevada.
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If U.S. politicians and stodgy NFL officials are worried about Vegas? regulated, legalized books, they might really shutter at the thought of the offshore industry probably handling more than a billion dollars on the Super Bowl. That?s a lot of untaxed dollars leaving the country. Still looking for a way to help close the federal deficit and fix social security?

It?s astounding to bookmakers, not to mention the rest of the world, that the U.S. government is so anti-Internet wagering and so against legalized sports betting.

?Almost everyone who?s watching the game is going to have a bet of some kind,? Doyle said about the Super Bowl. ?For the NFL to not recognize that and to demonize it is ridiculous.?

Six-figure bets in Las Vegas on the Super Bowl aren?t that uncommon. High limits are the norm for the Super Bowl. Doyle said BetWWTS.com would accept up to a million dollars on the game. No takers so far. The biggest current bet is $50,000 on the Eagles. The largest Super Bowl wager of all-time at BetWWTS.com, was $200,000 two years ago on the Buccaneers against the Raiders, Doyle said. Keep in mind that probably 90 percent of the wagers won?t come in until the weekend of the game.

People are going to wager on the Super Bowl no matter who?s playing. But getting the defending champion Patriots and the Eagles, who clearly were the best of the NFC teams, was the perfect combination for bookmakers. There?s drama and the point spread is still low enough to think it could be a competitive game.

?It is a dream Super Bowl,? Doyle said. ?This is the one we wanted all the way down the line.?

It?s a dream Super Bowl for bookmakers because they?ll get plenty of two-way action. The line has settled in at Patriots minus 7 within the first 24 hours after some places opened New England minus 6 ? or 6.

?I don?t see it moving off the seven,? Doyle said. ?I certainly don?t think it would go back to 6 ?. In terms of getting balanced action seven is the right number. We should do a lot of action with that number.?

There is one nightmare scenario for bookmakers, and that?s if the Patriots win by exactly seven points. We?d be talking about massive refunds if that were the case.

?The worry is if it lands on seven,? Doyle said. ?If it lands seven it would be quite ugly for us.?

You wonder, though, if the line would move in the Eagles? direction if definite word comes out that Terrell Owens is healthy enough to play and make an impact. Bookmakers still might not get off the seven if that happened, but instead raise the juice on the Eagles.

Even without Owens the Eagles should be a live underdog with Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and a tough, blitzing defense against a New England squad that has been winning despite a cluster injury situation in its secondary.

There is a comfort zone with the Patriots, though. Bill Belichick has never lost a playoff game as head coach of the Patriots. The public usually goes for the favorite, although in the Super Bowl they are apt to take the money line on the ?dog. That might not be the case here since the Patriots have won 31 of their last 33. That?s a lot of winning money line bets. New England hasn?t been too shabby against the number either, going 25-7-1 (78 percent) against the spread during this span.