Atlanta Falcons to win SB <<<200 to win 9500>>> (You can get even better number, mine's local)
Atlanta Falcons to win NFC <<<100 to win 2000>>>
....First let me repeat that this is a pure value play. I am well aware that the defense has been bad, Dan Quinn has been owned by the division, and Matty Ice melted last year under shanahans offense. Having said that, as far as futures go, this one is a no-brainer for me after looking at recent history.
....Assumptions I am making, so if you disagree with these then I understand you not seeing the value. 1) The Falcons have a multitude of weapons offensively and an improved LOS to go with a really good QB in the prime of his career. This will equate to one of if not the top offense in the League. 2) The Falcons lost 5 games last year by a combined 14 points, that will not happen this year and they will make the playoffs. 3) Matt Ryan and the Defense are now in year 2 of new systems and will cause more while giving up fewer turnovers(last year they were -7). 3) The NFC is just not a real scary place. Get in the playoffs and there is no team that can not be beaten. 4) At +4750 the expected win % is 2.06. At +2000 the expected win % is 4.7. Given the assumptions above and the stats to come below, these numbers are absurd from a value standpoint.
....No doubt a case could be made for a few other teams "sneaking" in, but they are far from +4750/+2000 and imo not even remotely worth the risk. Having wasted far more on far less before, I understand fully what this is and will gladly take a shot. Good luck if anyone decides to throw a few bucks at it!
-5 of last 10 SB Champs have been outside the top 10 defenses (12,17,20,23,25)
-The 3 above champs that were in the 20's defensively had Very good offenses (20/1,23/2,25/9)
-Teams with the #1 or #2 offense in the league have won 35% of all Super Bowls. (47% if 1 or 2 defensively if your wondering)
-Playoff seeding for last 11 years of SB winners. 6,3,5,2,1,6,4,4,1,1,2
-2 of the last 10 SB winners were 8-8 the year before winning it. Guess who was 8-8 last year:0003
-Average age of SB winning QB 30.....Ryan is 31:00x23
x34:x34:x34:x34:x34:x34:x34:x34:
x34:x34:x34:x34:x34:x34:x34:x34:
Atlanta Falcons to win NFC <<<100 to win 2000>>>
....First let me repeat that this is a pure value play. I am well aware that the defense has been bad, Dan Quinn has been owned by the division, and Matty Ice melted last year under shanahans offense. Having said that, as far as futures go, this one is a no-brainer for me after looking at recent history.
....Assumptions I am making, so if you disagree with these then I understand you not seeing the value. 1) The Falcons have a multitude of weapons offensively and an improved LOS to go with a really good QB in the prime of his career. This will equate to one of if not the top offense in the League. 2) The Falcons lost 5 games last year by a combined 14 points, that will not happen this year and they will make the playoffs. 3) Matt Ryan and the Defense are now in year 2 of new systems and will cause more while giving up fewer turnovers(last year they were -7). 3) The NFC is just not a real scary place. Get in the playoffs and there is no team that can not be beaten. 4) At +4750 the expected win % is 2.06. At +2000 the expected win % is 4.7. Given the assumptions above and the stats to come below, these numbers are absurd from a value standpoint.
....No doubt a case could be made for a few other teams "sneaking" in, but they are far from +4750/+2000 and imo not even remotely worth the risk. Having wasted far more on far less before, I understand fully what this is and will gladly take a shot. Good luck if anyone decides to throw a few bucks at it!
-5 of last 10 SB Champs have been outside the top 10 defenses (12,17,20,23,25)
-The 3 above champs that were in the 20's defensively had Very good offenses (20/1,23/2,25/9)
-Teams with the #1 or #2 offense in the league have won 35% of all Super Bowls. (47% if 1 or 2 defensively if your wondering)
-Playoff seeding for last 11 years of SB winners. 6,3,5,2,1,6,4,4,1,1,2
-2 of the last 10 SB winners were 8-8 the year before winning it. Guess who was 8-8 last year:0003
-Average age of SB winning QB 30.....Ryan is 31:00x23
x34:x34:x34:x34:x34:x34:x34:x34:
Last edited:
