Super Bowl Odds

[ChasDee]

Absolutely Hud! It is good to have disagreements on here, mostly it's just a matter of perspective.
Both teams deserve to be in the Super Bowl, that's for sure. As always, good luck to you too! :0008

 

[Kelso]

Read my other thread

Read my other thread

Nolan Dalla 15-16 years ago warned about betting
The teams played by the dudes in the polyester suits.

Greatly named " the polyester play "
There are 7 games during the season where Caro won by 7 or less.
It is a little shocking. Yes they are wins.
But still, a boat load of points were scored on them.
Very suspect

 

[AR182]

Nolan Dalla 15-16 years ago warned about betting
The teams played by the dudes in the polyester suits.

Greatly named " the polyester play "
There are 7 games during the season where Caro won by 7 or less.
It is a little shocking. Yes they are wins.
But still, a boat load of points were scored on them.
Very suspect

I don't know if this is helpful or not but here it is anyway....

Points scored against Denver's defense on the road....

KC....24
Det...12
Oak....10
Cleve...23
Indy....27
Chi....15
SD....3
Pitts...34
------------
Total....148....18.5 ppg

Points scored against Car's defense on the road....

Jax....9
TB.....23
Seat..23
Tenn..10
Dall....14
NO.....38
Giants.35
Atl.....20
-----------
Total....172....21.5 ppg....

Does this tell anybody anything?

 

[Kelso]

Yes that is very interesting stats

Yes that is very interesting stats

I don't know if this is helpful or not but here it is anyway....

Points scored against Denver's defense on the road....

KC....24
Det...12
Oak....10
Cleve...23
Indy....27
Chi....15
SD....3
Pitts...34
------------
Total....148....18.5 ppg

Points scored against Car's defense on the road....

Jax....9
TB.....23
Seat..23
Tenn..10
Dall....14
NO.....38
Giants.35
Atl.....20
-----------
Total....172....21.5 ppg....

Does this tell anybody anything?

Sure does help 21.5 to 18.5 .
I expect Manning to burn clock unless they fall behind. Wade Phillips is very sneaky with his Defensive schemes and maybe not so many turnovers by Denver.
Man alive I can't envision a Carson Palmer performance from Manning

 

[ChasDee]

I don't know if this is helpful or not but here it is anyway....

Points scored against Denver's defense on the road....

KC....24
Det...12
Oak....10
Cleve...23
Indy....27
Chi....15
SD....3
Pitts...34
------------
Total....148....18.5 ppg

Points scored against Car's defense on the road....

Jax....9
TB.....23
Seat..23
Tenn..10
Dall....14
NO.....38
Giants.35
Atl.....20
-----------
Total....172....21.5 ppg....

Does this tell anybody anything?

But.....in those very same away games Carolina's offense scored 236 points or 29.5 points a game. Denver's offense scored 184 points or 23 points per game. That's almost a full touchdown difference. A field goal difference by the defense in Denver's favor, but a touchdown difference by the offense in Carolina's favor.

 

[Kelso]

But.....in those very same away games Carolina's offense scored 236 points or 29.5 points a game. Denver's offense scored 184 points or 23 points per game. That's almost a full touchdown difference. A field goal difference by the defense in Denver's favor, but a touchdown difference by the offense in Carolina's favor.

GOOD POINT !

So CAROLINA has a 6 1/2 point offensive edge and a 3 point deficit on defense.
Carolina - 3 1/2 points so The spread maybe about right at Caro - 4 1/2.

We all know Peyton is older, I just don't think he will be foolish with the ball. I mean Seattle and Arizona
just stunk out the place with all kinds of turnovers..
Carson Palmer was the worst performance ive seen in 50 years...I swear , I never ever recollect a QB performance in a Title game.....

Carson Palmer is from another planet ! Don't forget, AZ has some knuckleheads on their team like Patrick Peterson with his brainless muff of that punt and his idiotic taunting when he was heading for the endzone against Green Bay...He is a total asshole, he always has his brain on starting trouble.
.
Good Luck Caro is def the team to beat !
Don't get me wrong, Carolina is a very good team and rightfully so are the team to beat

 

[HUDSON]

Absolutely Hud! It is good to have disagreements on here, mostly it's just a matter of perspective.
Both teams deserve to be in the Super Bowl, that's for sure. As always, good luck to you too! :0008

One more little tid bit....Seattle and Arizona turned the ball over 8 times! Big reason why those scores were so one sided. Denver will not do that. This could be Mannings last game. He won't go out a chump

So far all I've heard all over ESPN is Cam this Cam that Cam Cam Cam....everyone all on his nuts now big time! Too many saying Carolina runs away with this one. Experience goes to Denver here. Mannings been here Cam hasn't. I'll take Denver and 2 weeks prep time to prepare for the duel threat QB

 

[Scrapman]

pulease read my thread about in season stats and YOU will find 100% accurate stat showing Denver guaranteed loser and I'll wager $1000 cash this year or at least $500 that Panthers bury this phony pony


who do you want a team that was - 4 in stat thats ultra imporatant in every game Playoffs included or the team that was +++++ 21 in the same stat

I never saw any team that was negative in this stat or even at zero even get close to winning the bowl or cover as a DOG.

IF i had more cash i would cover everyones wager in this forum who took denver

yes the Money Line also

 

[BuddyWright]

By the 5th or 6th game of the season you could tell that Arizona,NE,Denver,Carolina were all going to be in the Playoffs and you could tell who was going to win. Sorry Payton but Cam represents the QBs of the future.
Big Mobile running QBs that can take a hit thru out the game.He probably will only last 5 years or so but it will be 5 damn good years. The only way to really beat the spread offense is to have a running QB that can take a hit so Cam Newton was born and you will see all the other teams trying to find another Cam for their QB from here on out.


GoodLuck

 

[ChasDee]

One more little tid bit....Seattle and Arizona turned the ball over 8 times! Big reason why those scores were so one sided. Denver will not do that. This could be Mannings last game. He won't go out a chump

So far all I've heard all over ESPN is Cam this Cam that Cam Cam Cam....everyone all on his nuts now big time! Too many saying Carolina runs away with this one. Experience goes to Denver here. Mannings been here Cam hasn't. I'll take Denver and 2 weeks prep time to prepare for the duel threat QB

Ok Hud, good point on the turnovers. But it's my contention that Carolina creates those turnovers. They've done it all year and I don't see any reason why that will end, especially with the year Manning had. Manning played great against N England, but that's it! His TD to INT ratio is abysmal! I guess Manning can play great against Carolina too, and that would give Denver a chance, although I still think Carolina wins and covers, but if Manning plays bad like he has all year, this game isn't even close, IMHO.

 

[AR182]

The more that I look at this game the more I am convinced that Carolina is very over-rated....

To get to their regular season record of 15-1, the Panthers played a very soft schedule....9 of those wins came against 7 teams that had losing records....Tenn. (3-10) once, Dallas (4-12) once, Jax (5-11) once, TB (6-10) twice, Giants (6-10) once, NO (7-9) twice, & Phil. (7-9) once....2 of those wins came against 2 teams that were at .500 for the season; Atl.(8-8), & Indy (8-8)....Only 4 of those wins were vs. teams with a winning record; Houst (9-7), Wash. (9-7), GB (10-6) & Seattle (10-6)....Their only loss came against a very average Atl. team....Az. is the best team the Panthers have played this year. And even though Car. scored often vs the Cards, they were helped by Az. 7 turnovers....

True Car. played what was on their schedule & I do think they are a good team....However I think their stats & the SB line are over-blown because of their weak schedule....

Of course this is just my opinion....

 

[HUDSON]

pulease read my thread about in season stats and YOU will find 100% accurate stat showing Denver guaranteed loser and I'll wager $1000 cash this year or at least $500 that Panthers bury this phony pony


who do you want a team that was - 4 in stat thats ultra imporatant in every game Playoffs included or the team that was +++++ 21 in the same stat

I never saw any team that was negative in this stat or even at zero even get close to winning the bowl or cover as a DOG.

IF i had more cash i would cover everyones wager in this forum who took denver

yes the Money Line also

Carolina no doubt is on fire and could take this easily like you say, but if this is the case why would oddsmakers set this line line at ONLY 4? When Carolina just blew out Seattle and Arizona while Denver pretty much squeaked by Pitt and NE. Just doesn't make sense. I've been around the block a few times and this just seems like a public TRAP! Smart money already moved the line down yet the public consensus is all over Panthers. This line should be more like 7. Denver and Mannings wobbly blown out arm wins this SU somehow someway. I don't see this being as easy as people think. That's my take but you do make some very valid points for Carolina! With so much public on Carolina I just can't do it. Everyone at my job is all over the Cam hype and they know squat about football. That's enough for me. BOL with your plays Scrap!!

 

[tulah]

The more that I look at this game the more I am convinced that Carolina is very over-rated....

To get to their regular season record of 15-1, the Panthers played a very soft schedule....9 of those wins came against 7 teams that had losing records....Tenn. (3-10) once, Dallas (4-12) once, Jax (5-11) once, TB (6-10) twice, Giants (6-10) once, NO (7-9) twice, & Phil. (7-9) once....2 of those wins came against 2 teams that were at .500 for the season; Atl.(8-8), & Indy (8-8)....Only 4 of those wins were vs. teams with a winning record; Houst (9-7), Wash. (9-7), GB (10-6) & Seattle (10-6)....Their only loss came against a very average Atl. team....Az. is the best team the Panthers have played this year. And even though Car. scored often vs the Cards, they were helped by Az. 7 turnovers....

True Car. played what was on their schedule & I do think they are a good team....However I think their stats & the SB line are over-blown because of their weak schedule....

Of course this is just my opinion....

:0008
I totally agree.

 

[ChasDee]

The more that I look at this game the more I am convinced that Carolina is very over-rated....

To get to their regular season record of 15-1, the Panthers played a very soft schedule....9 of those wins came against 7 teams that had losing records....Tenn. (3-10) once, Dallas (4-12) once, Jax (5-11) once, TB (6-10) twice, Giants (6-10) once, NO (7-9) twice, & Phil. (7-9) once....2 of those wins came against 2 teams that were at .500 for the season; Atl.(8-8), & Indy (8-8)....Only 4 of those wins were vs. teams with a winning record; Houst (9-7), Wash. (9-7), GB (10-6) & Seattle (10-6)....Their only loss came against a very average Atl. team....Az. is the best team the Panthers have played this year. And even though Car. scored often vs the Cards, they were helped by Az. 7 turnovers....

True Car. played what was on their schedule & I do think they are a good team....However I think their stats & the SB line are over-blown because of their weak schedule....

Of course this is just my opinion....

I don't mean to be a smart ass, but how did that "weak schedule" that Carolina played work out for Seattle and Arizona?

 

[ChasDee]

Carolina no doubt is on fire and could take this easily like you say, but if this is the case why would oddsmakers set this line line at ONLY 4? When Carolina just blew out Seattle and Arizona while Denver pretty much squeaked by Pitt and NE. Just doesn't make sense. I've been around the block a few times and this just seems like a public TRAP! Smart money already moved the line down yet the public consensus is all over Panthers. This line should be more like 7. Denver and Mannings wobbly blown out arm wins this SU somehow someway. I don't see this being as easy as people think. That's my take but you do make some very valid points for Carolina! With so much public on Carolina I just can't do it. Everyone at my job is all over the Cam hype and they know squat about football. That's enough for me. BOL with your plays Scrap!!

Oddsmakers "set" the line based on power ratings. As of last week, here are the power ratings for all of the playoff teams....

Carolina 56
N England 56
Arizona 55
Denver 52

You add 3 or 4 points for home field and roughly you have a point spread. Since this game is on a neutral field, there is no home field add on for the line. So 4 points is just about right. Although Hud, I agree with you, I thought this line would be about 7, because I assumed Carolina's rating would go up a point or two. But a public trap? Nah....that would mean the odds-makers would already know Denver is going to win. They have NO IDEA! If this truly was a "trap" the line would be a pick 'em. As we all know, 4 points are a hell of a lot of points in an NFL game.

No one knows who's going to win this game. If Manning plays really well (like he did vs N England) this should be a heck of a game. But the way Carolina took apart both Seattle and Arizona can't be overlooked! That was as impressive of a 2-game beat down that I've ever seen in the playoffs.
AND....both of those teams are better than Denver. At least according to the power ratings from the source that I use.

Again this is just a healthy debate we're having here. Some of us will be right and some of us will be wrong and I've been wrong plenty of times before. I truly wish we could all be right, but we know that's not gonna happen.

 

[HUDSON]

Oddsmakers "set" the line based on power ratings. As of last week, here are the power ratings for all of the playoff teams....

Carolina 56
N England 56
Arizona 55
Denver 52

You add 3 or 4 points for home field and roughly you have a point spread. Since this game is on a neutral field, there is no home field add on for the line. So 4 points is just about right. Although Hud, I agree with you, I thought this line would be about 7, because I assumed Carolina's rating would go up a point or two. But a public trap? Nah....that would mean the odds-makers would already know Denver is going to win. They have NO IDEA! If this truly was a "trap" the line would be a pick 'em. As we all know, 4 points are a hell of a lot of points in an NFL game.

No one knows who's going to win this game. If Manning plays really well (like he did vs N England) this should be a heck of a game. But the way Carolina took apart both Seattle and Arizona can't be overlooked! That was as impressive of a 2-game beat down that I've ever seen in the playoffs.
AND....both of those teams are better than Denver. At least according to the power ratings from the source that I use.

Again this is just a healthy debate we're having here. Some of us will be right and some of us will be wrong and I've been wrong plenty of times before. I truly wish we could all be right, but we know that's not gonna happen.

Agree but they also do include recent play into the spread not just power rankings. Injuries etc. With Carolina coming off two completely blowouts this line is begging for Panther action. That's all I'm sayn. I'm just seeing it like that

I'm sure you saw...Manning told Belicheck after the game this could be his last rodeo and it's been a pleasure competing over the years. This game just sets up perfect for drama sending Manning out the right way with a win. I'm sure some crazy BS will happen to make it that way....9/10 times I think Carolina beats Denver but on this day this will be the one loss

 

[ChasDee]

Agree but they also do include recent play into the spread not just power rankings. Injuries etc. With Carolina coming off two completely blowouts this line is begging for Panther action. That's all I'm sayn. I'm just seeing it like that

I'm sure you saw...Manning told Belicheck after the game this could be his last rodeo and it's been a pleasure competing over the years. This game just sets up perfect for drama sending Manning out the right way with a win. I'm sure some crazy BS will happen to make it that way....9/10 times I think Carolina beats Denver but on this day this will be the one loss

I see what you are saying HUD, but just because Manning might be retiring, doesn't mean they will win his last game. It would be a nice ending for a GREAT QB, but far too many future H.O.F. players DON'T win their last hurrah! I'm not a big believer in the NFL hierarchy controlling the outcomes of the games. Sure players can "fix" a game to effect the outcome of the game in a negative way, but they can't "fix" a game to make their team win. But that's just my opinion and you are certainly entitled to your opinion. If Manning plays a really great game with no turnovers, I definitely give Denver a shot at winning. I just don't see that happening.

 

[Kelso]

NOW. 5 1/2. 45:scared