I've been looking at all possible outcomes for this game and feel I have a strong play on the total. I think it has the most scenarios that can lead to having a winning bet.
Super Bowl Total: OVER 58
First off, let me state that the fact that Brady hasn't scored a 1st quarter TD scares me some. It is more than a coincidence after 6 attempts, however, I am betting on it changing tonite.
I see it like this:
The New England Patriots are known for taking away #1 option from the opposition. It is misleading in a sense, because they don't necessarily take away the best player, they take away what you do best. In the Falcons case, they do everything well. You cannot literally take away a teams entire passing game, but you can try to limit their running game, and I think that's exactly what the Patriots are going to try and do. Bilicick isn't insane. He has seen other teams fail when trying to double Julio all game. He knows that regardless Julio will catch balls, but more importantly that the running game and the other recievers are more than capable of handling the majority of the work. They have to many weapons to just permanently put 2 guys in coverage versus Julio the entire game. Other teams have tried it all year with minimal team success. Some teams have shut out Julio, but ultimately lose the battle as Ryan shreds the elsewhere. That is why I think we see something different then what 99% of people are expecting regarding "completely shutting out Julio". I think we see New England try and completely take away the running game, and force Atlanta to become as 1 Dimensional as possible. That means Atlanta will be checking out of run plays when they see loaded fronts consistently and airing it out. That leads to either big plays and points or clock stoppage and more plays/opportunities. Either way good for the over. I think Atlanta hangs 30+.
New England to me is a machine. They are well oiled and ready to roll. Going against a young defense with minimal big game experience, I think hoodie puts the petal to the metal. I think we see the no huddle attack that brady runs as well as anyone. Atlanta has a decent pass rush, so Brady will dink and dunk all game while wearing the edge rushers out. Brady doesn't hold the ball long enough for outside pressure to consistently get to him. They will try and wear the edge rushers out and force this young secondary to make plays early and often. On a day where it could be a many possession game for Brady who will be going against majority of inexperienced guys, I love Brady to win that matchup and put points on the board. The "forcing them to make plays early and often" aspect of it all is why I think we finally see Brady score a 1st quarter TD. I also think the Patriots will score 30+.
X-FACTORS:
Patriots-
Dion Lewis may catch 10+ balls in this game. If they have the hurry up going, which I really think they will, he is going to outsnap Blount, and should see consistent targets. He is so dynamic and has the capabilities to make guys miss all over the field. You combine all of that with the touches he gets on special teams and I think you have a strong argument that he is the most crucial player outside of #12 in a Patriots uniform.
Atlanta-
Beasley/Freeney- Like referenced above, typically Brady doesnt mind the outside pressure. He will carve you up. For Atlanta's young secondary to have a chance, these two guys will have to be creative when rushing the passer, and find ways to get to Brady. Whether it is scheme or one of these two guys doing something heroic, they have to be able to force some sort of pressure, ecspecially on 3rd down, or else Brady will go nuts. They can win in a shootout, but if one or both of these two can be effective rushers, then they will allow for their offense to play slightly less then great and still have a chance in this game.
Other Scenarios:
Blowout city- A blowout either way would see one of these teams getting to 40+. Similar to the Seahawks vs Broncos Super Bowl from a couple years back, I think a blowoit here would lead to an "over" winner. Neither team is being held under 20, and a blowout would have to see a 40 point victor, which would give us 60+ points. So a blow out either way gives us 2X more possibilities on getting to a winning wager.
No up-tempo- even if the Pats choose not to go up tempo, Brady and companies skills and experience are a huge mismatch for this Falcons secondary. If they choose to try and be more methodical, I still see Brady having big success and using Lewis out of the backfield to get chunk plays. Noone is stopping Brady at this point in his Career.
Run, Run, Run...-
This is worst case scenario for my over, but still not a guaranteed loser. For the Patriots, Blount would be heavily involved here, but that doesn't necessarily mean low scoring. We have seen Brady hand it off 3 straight times and gash opponents for 10 YPC, only to complete deep play action shots for TDS when the defense finally chooses to creep up or try and read the backfield. Add in Dion Lewis, who is good for 6-10 carries, and you have a player with game breaking ability who can break a 50+ yd TD run as easily as any other runner in the game. Looking at the Falcons if we have a high volume of carries, it is a true "pick your posion". Having fresh legs late in the game is crucial, even more so when we're discussing team's 19th game of the season. We have seen Freeman just destroy tacklers and gain chunks, only to cede series to Coleman who is a completely different runner, but equally as effective.
My true read is a shoot-out, but as you can see, there are many scenarios where the "over bettors" would still maintain a legitimate chance at cashing a ticket. I think we are in for a helluva game and would be schocked if either teams stays below 21 points.
Have fun watching and be safe.
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
Super Bowl Total: OVER 58
First off, let me state that the fact that Brady hasn't scored a 1st quarter TD scares me some. It is more than a coincidence after 6 attempts, however, I am betting on it changing tonite.
I see it like this:
The New England Patriots are known for taking away #1 option from the opposition. It is misleading in a sense, because they don't necessarily take away the best player, they take away what you do best. In the Falcons case, they do everything well. You cannot literally take away a teams entire passing game, but you can try to limit their running game, and I think that's exactly what the Patriots are going to try and do. Bilicick isn't insane. He has seen other teams fail when trying to double Julio all game. He knows that regardless Julio will catch balls, but more importantly that the running game and the other recievers are more than capable of handling the majority of the work. They have to many weapons to just permanently put 2 guys in coverage versus Julio the entire game. Other teams have tried it all year with minimal team success. Some teams have shut out Julio, but ultimately lose the battle as Ryan shreds the elsewhere. That is why I think we see something different then what 99% of people are expecting regarding "completely shutting out Julio". I think we see New England try and completely take away the running game, and force Atlanta to become as 1 Dimensional as possible. That means Atlanta will be checking out of run plays when they see loaded fronts consistently and airing it out. That leads to either big plays and points or clock stoppage and more plays/opportunities. Either way good for the over. I think Atlanta hangs 30+.
New England to me is a machine. They are well oiled and ready to roll. Going against a young defense with minimal big game experience, I think hoodie puts the petal to the metal. I think we see the no huddle attack that brady runs as well as anyone. Atlanta has a decent pass rush, so Brady will dink and dunk all game while wearing the edge rushers out. Brady doesn't hold the ball long enough for outside pressure to consistently get to him. They will try and wear the edge rushers out and force this young secondary to make plays early and often. On a day where it could be a many possession game for Brady who will be going against majority of inexperienced guys, I love Brady to win that matchup and put points on the board. The "forcing them to make plays early and often" aspect of it all is why I think we finally see Brady score a 1st quarter TD. I also think the Patriots will score 30+.
X-FACTORS:
Patriots-
Dion Lewis may catch 10+ balls in this game. If they have the hurry up going, which I really think they will, he is going to outsnap Blount, and should see consistent targets. He is so dynamic and has the capabilities to make guys miss all over the field. You combine all of that with the touches he gets on special teams and I think you have a strong argument that he is the most crucial player outside of #12 in a Patriots uniform.
Atlanta-
Beasley/Freeney- Like referenced above, typically Brady doesnt mind the outside pressure. He will carve you up. For Atlanta's young secondary to have a chance, these two guys will have to be creative when rushing the passer, and find ways to get to Brady. Whether it is scheme or one of these two guys doing something heroic, they have to be able to force some sort of pressure, ecspecially on 3rd down, or else Brady will go nuts. They can win in a shootout, but if one or both of these two can be effective rushers, then they will allow for their offense to play slightly less then great and still have a chance in this game.
Other Scenarios:
Blowout city- A blowout either way would see one of these teams getting to 40+. Similar to the Seahawks vs Broncos Super Bowl from a couple years back, I think a blowoit here would lead to an "over" winner. Neither team is being held under 20, and a blowout would have to see a 40 point victor, which would give us 60+ points. So a blow out either way gives us 2X more possibilities on getting to a winning wager.
No up-tempo- even if the Pats choose not to go up tempo, Brady and companies skills and experience are a huge mismatch for this Falcons secondary. If they choose to try and be more methodical, I still see Brady having big success and using Lewis out of the backfield to get chunk plays. Noone is stopping Brady at this point in his Career.
Run, Run, Run...-
This is worst case scenario for my over, but still not a guaranteed loser. For the Patriots, Blount would be heavily involved here, but that doesn't necessarily mean low scoring. We have seen Brady hand it off 3 straight times and gash opponents for 10 YPC, only to complete deep play action shots for TDS when the defense finally chooses to creep up or try and read the backfield. Add in Dion Lewis, who is good for 6-10 carries, and you have a player with game breaking ability who can break a 50+ yd TD run as easily as any other runner in the game. Looking at the Falcons if we have a high volume of carries, it is a true "pick your posion". Having fresh legs late in the game is crucial, even more so when we're discussing team's 19th game of the season. We have seen Freeman just destroy tacklers and gain chunks, only to cede series to Coleman who is a completely different runner, but equally as effective.
My true read is a shoot-out, but as you can see, there are many scenarios where the "over bettors" would still maintain a legitimate chance at cashing a ticket. I think we are in for a helluva game and would be schocked if either teams stays below 21 points.
Have fun watching and be safe.
Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
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