Super Bowl report

[Senor Capper]

VI

January 22, 2004
Brian Edwards


Oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened New England as a seven-point favorite to win its second Super Bowl in three seasons. The total was listed at 38 in most betting shops as of early Thursday. Bettors can earn a return of plus 190 by backing Carolina to win its first Super Bowl in franchise history.

The Patriots played smothering defense on the red-hot Indy offense in the AFC Championsip Game, picking off Peyton Manning four times in a 24-14 home win as three-point favorites at most spots. The 38 combined points stayed 'under' the total.

When you consider the fact that Indy hadn't punted once in its two previous postseason games, we once again have to tip our hat to New England head coach Bill Belichick, who has ascended to the top of his profession in the last three years.

Can we honestly say another "re-hired" NFL head coach has been better? Remember, Belichick had a disastrous tenure in Cleveland before hooking back up with Bill Parcells as his defensive coordinator in successful stints with the Patriots and Jets.



And while on the topic of coaches, how about the job John Fox has done in Carolina? Since coming over from the Giants after serving as Jim Fassell's defensive coordinator, Fox has taken a 1-15 club to within four quarters of a Super Bowl title.

When it comes to handicapping NFL playoff games, I look at coaches and quarterbacks as critical elements to finding an edge with one team or the other. For example, I loved the matchup of Steve McNair calling the shots compared to Anthony Wright in the first-round Tennessee-Baltimore game. McNair led the Titans into the win column as underdogs against the Ravens.

Likewise, when Carolina went to St. Louis as a seven-point underdog, I felt better about Jake Delhomme than Marc Bulger. Delhomme had been nothing short of spectacular against Dallas the previous week, while Bulger was poised to make his debut start in the playoffs. Plus, I liked the matchup of Carolina's playmaking defense against a signal caller who had tossed 22 interceptions in the regular season. Last but not least, I gave Fox the edge over Mike Martz, who is one of the most overrated coaches in NFL history.

Even though Manning and Co. were putting up record numbers in wins over Denver and Kansas City, I liked the chances of Belichick and defensive coordinator Romeo Cronell putting together a game plan to stop the Colts. First of all, we're all aware of how badly KC's defense struggled down the stretch, and Denver's D isn't in the same league as the unit led by Pats' DB Ty Law.

In my mind, the coaching edge went to the Patriots. The QB situation was a wash to me. Couple those factors with the wintry elements in Foxboro, and you know why I backed New England minus three against a team that plays in a dome. (Remember, the Colts caught a break in KC with a beautiful afternoon game.)

Gamblers face different decisions in the Super Bowl, though. For instance, New England no longer has the weather advantage at frigid Gillette Stadium. Plus, the neutral venue won't give either team an edge via crowd noise.

And the quarterbacks? Well, something has to give. Tom Brady owns a perfect 5-0 record in the playoffs, including a Super Bowl victory over the Rams. Brady has also dealt with the pressure of Super Bowl week, and he's come through in the clutch on a game-winning drive.

On the flip side, Delhomme hasn't dealt with type of media bombardment that's waiting for him in Houston. That said, has this kid from Cajun country blinked once all season long? And oh yeah, he's also unbeaten in the playoffs with a 3-0 record in this season's run through the NFC.

As for coaching, Belichick has been here before. Not just two seasons ago, but in trips to the big game while serving as Parcells' defensive coordinator with the Giants and Pats. Likewise, Fox was here three years ago as the Giants' DC.

Fellow VI handicapper Christian Alexander puts a heavy emphasis on QB play and coaching as well: "You can't underestimate QB play or coaching in the Super Bowl," Alexander said. "Keep this in mind, though. Both coaches have done plenty right to get this far, so it's not like you're dealing with inferior coaches on either side.

"The same can be said for the QBs. A lot of times you hear people talk about the QB that will "win the game." Well, sometimes I'd rather have the guy that won't lose the game. Certainly, Delhomme fits that mold."

 

[Senor Capper]

Super props

Super props

*more copy & paste


VI
January 23, 2004
Brad Young


Be sure to visit Sportsbook.com for all of your Super Bowl XXXVIII proposition plays!

Oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants have been busy this week providing proposition bets for one of the world's most watched sporting events. The line and total for Super Bowl XXXVIII were released just before the final gun on Carolina's victory in the NFC Championship game, but the props needed more time.

LVSC opened New England as a seven-point 'chalk' over Carolina, with a total of 38 ?. The line is now 6 ? with a total of 38. Prop plays will also undergo some minor adjustments leading up to kickoff. There are numerous props on every aspect of the game that can be viewed on our props page, but we are going to focus on just a few of these wagers.

The Patriots have been installed as a $1.75 favorite (bet $175 to win $100) to be the first team to score in Super Bowl XXXVIII. Carolina enters the fray as a $1.55 underdog (bet $100 to win $155).

The Patriots scored first in both of their playoff games this year, while the Panthers scored first in two of their three postseason contests. St. Louis scored the first six points against Carolina before eventually falling in double overtime.

New England is also favored to be the last team to score Super Sunday as a $1.50 'chalk.' The Panthers are a $1.30 underdog for this particular prop.


Carolina scored last in all three of its playoff victories en route to the Super Bowl, while the Patriots scored last in both of their playoff matchups.

Traditionally, one of the most popular prop bets throughout the years is will there be a Super Bowl safety? No safety is a huge $8.00 'chalk,' while yes is a decided $5.00 underdog.

New England recorded a safety against Indianapolis in the AFC Championship game when Colts punter Hunter Smith purposely kicked the ball out of the endzone when the ball was snapped over his head. Carolina has not had a safety this postseason.

Another popular wager is whether or not there will be a successful two-point conversion, with the lines not being as dramatic as the safety prop. No enters the fray as a $5.50 favorite on a successful two-point conversion, while yes is listed as a $3.75 underdog. Neither team has attempted a two-point conversion this postseason.

There has never been an overtime in Super Bowl history, but there have been a few close calls. No overtime is a $6.50 favorite, while an overtime matchup is listed as a $4.50 underdog.

Carolina has been the king of close games this year, going 4-1 in overtime. The most dramatic victory occurred at St. Louis in the playoffs when the Panthers prevailed in double overtime as a seven-point underdog, 29-23.

New England is 2-0 in overtime this year, with both contests occurring during the regular season. The Patriots dumped Miami in Week 7 as a 6 ?-point road underdog, 19-13. New England beat Houston in Week 12 as a 5 ?-point road 'chalk,' 23-20.

That contest versus the Texans occurred ironically enough at Houston's Reliant Stadium, home of Super Bowl XXXVIII. Carolina also played in this stadium only to lose in Week 8 as a 6 ?-point favorite, 14-10.

One of the most controversial wagers was the coin-flip prop, which has changed recently due to the wording. Lawmakers believed that it was unlawful to bet on a non-sporting event, so the wording has changed over the years from who will win the coin flip to who will be the first team to kickoff.

Both teams enter at minus $1.10. Onside kicks, kicks out of bounds, touchbacks and the first of any re-kick are all considered kickoffs.

Carolina enters the game as an underdog, but the Panthers are a $1.55 favorite to have the lead at some point during the game. Coach John Fox's team is a $1.35 underdog to never have a lead during Super Bowl XXXVIII.

Another big favorite surrounds what player will score the first touchdown, with no touchdown being the biggest longshot at 30/1. Carolina running back Stephen Davis is the biggest favorite to put points on the board first at 5/1, slightly ahead of the 'field' at 9/2.


Will Stephen Davis be the first player to hit pay dirt? "(Getty Images)

Carolina wide receivers Steve Smith (7/1) and Muhsin Muhammad (8/1) are also popular choices. The biggest longshot concerning the Panthers are Rod Smart (25/1) and quarterback Jake Delhomme (30/1).

New England running back Antowain Smith enters the fray at 6/1, slightly ahead of David Givens at 7/1. Wide receiver Troy Brown has been installed at 8/1, while signal caller Tom Brady is a 25/1 selection.

Turnovers are one of the biggest factors in determining a winner, so naturally there is a prop wager on it. Carolina is a $1.35 to commit the first turnover on Super Sunday, while New England is a $1.15 underdog.

One thing for certain is that with two weeks between the title games and Super Bowl Sunday, the handle should be high. Neither Carolina or New England are considered a public team, but that shouldn't matter the closer we get to kickoff.

 

[noodle]

thanks, Senor...........

 

[yyz]

Thanks, "Crapper"!

 

[Senor Capper]

:rant2:

 

[Senor Capper]

another read

another read

Brandt's Super Bowl preview


By Gil Brandt


(Jan. 23, 2004) -- First of all, Super Bowl XXXVIII is shaping up to be an unbelievable finish to an unbelievable season. And for the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots, it's a season that really started last March.


On March 7, 2003, the Panthers signed free-agent quarterback Jake Delhomme. Ten days later, they signed running back Stephen Davis. And the fact that these two players represented a reasonable $3,380,000 on this year's salary cap -- which gave the team room to make other moves -- is simply amazing.

Then on March 12, the Patriots signed free-agent safety Rodney Harrison. All three of these pickups have been key factors in their team's success this season.

Of course, some people in the media thought New England's season was over on the same day it started -- when they lost to Buffalo, 31-0, in the season opener. It should be pointed out that last year's Super Bowl champ, Tampa Bay, also lost its season opener before going on to win the title.

Carolina, meanwhile, beat the Eagles in the NFC title game last week in part because head coach John Fox was so familiar with Philadelphia from his experience with the Giants. There is some familiarity here in the Super Bowl as well: Panthers offensive coordinator Dan Henning worked with Patriots head coach Bill Belichick -- and four other New England assistants -- when they were together on the New York Jets' staff for two seasons.

Against common opponents this season, the Panthers are 4-4, while the Patriots are 7-1.

Super trends
It's harder than it used to be to predict the outcome based on trends, but here are some noteworthy trends and tendencies in the Super Bowl, along with which team might have that edge in this year's game:

First downs: In the first 12 Super Bowls, the team that had more first downs in the game had a record of 9-3. In the last 12 Super Bowls, the first-down winner is 4-6 (total was even in two games). For what it's worth, I think the Patriots will finish with more first downs.

Rushing attempts: In the first 12 Super Bowls, the team that had more rushing attempts in the game had a record of 12-0. In the last 12 Super Bowls, the rushing attempts winner is 9-2 (total was even in one game). I think the Panthers will finish with more rushing attempts.

Interceptions: In the first 12 Super Bowls, the defense that had more interceptions had a record of 10-0 (total was even in two games). In the last 12 Super Bowls, the interceptions winner is 9-0 (total was even in three games). I think the Patriots will finish with more interceptions.

Field goals: In the first 12 Super Bowls, the team that had more field goals had a record of 7-2 (total was even in three games). In the last 12 Super Bowls, the field goal winner is 8-1 (total was even in three games).

When the Patriots have the ball
It will be important for New England to score touchdowns when they get in the red zone. They were 22 of 50 in that situation during the season, and just one of seven against the Colts.


The Patriots will need to defend against DT Kris Jenkins.
The more you look at Tom Brady, the more undervalued he is. He just executes the plan, which is really all you can ask of your quarterback.

The key for New England will be their guards. They need to have their best games of the year as they face a tough challenge against Carolina defensive tackles Brentson Buckner and Kris Jenkins. The Patriots need to run the ball and avoid being too one-dimensional. And they need to be able to run the ball inside with Antowain Smith, because the Panthers defense is pretty good at stopping the stretch runs. Their corners do a good job of run support on the outside.

I think the third receiver for New England has a chance to make an impact. Rookie Bethel Johnson might be that person. The New England receivers are not great at getting off press coverage, and I think you'll see Carolina show a lot of press coverage.

You'll see Carolina use five and six defensive backs often in this game. When they use five DBs, linebacker Greg Favors will go out and cornerback Terry Cousin comes in; when they go with six DBs, one of the defensive linemen will go out, replaced by Dante Wesley.

A key for Carolina's defense will be stopping the tight end. The Patriots will try to spread the defense, but the Panthers will do everything possible to take the tight end out of the game.

When the Panthers have the ball
The Panthers' philosophy on offense has been to hang around long enough to give the team a chance to win at the end. It worked during the regular season, as they won seven games by three points or less and their average margin of victory for the season was 5.8 points. Like the Pats, Carolina was not very good at scoring touchdowns in the red zone: they were 18 of 43 on the season.

Here's a little viewing tip: The Panthers will occasionally line up with two running backs, two tight ends and just one receiver. When that receiver is Steve Smith, look for a high-percentage type of pass -- a quick screen, for example. When the receiver is Muhsin Muhammad, there's a good chance it's a running play.

Carolina will try to run the ball to control the clock and keep New England's offense off the field. You can be sure the Patriots will be looking closely at the film of Carolina's loss to Tennessee in Week 7, because the Titans stopped the run pretty good in that game. New England needs to focus on the wham and the inside trap, two running plays that Carolina has a lot of success with.

They also need to keep the pressure on Delhomme and force him to throw the ball up for grabs. Dallas was able to do this in their regular-season game against Carolina, and Delhomme completed just 9 of 24 passes. But they got some pressure on him in the playoff game as well, and Delhomme was able to make plays that time.

The real key for New England's defense is the status of linebacker Tedy Bruschi. If he doesn't play, it's a big loss for the Pats.

The pick
Last year, as you may recall, most people expected the Raiders to win. When there is a clear consensus on who will win the Super Bowl, it frequently goes the other way. But most everyone I've talked to about this game thinks it will be very close. That being the case, I'll look to another historical trend, which is that the team that allowed fewer points during the season has a better chance of winning. Of course, New England led the NFL in fewest points allowed.

I'm really looking forward to this game. I would not be surprised if Carolina won, but I'm going with the Patriots.

New England 16, Carolina 14

 

[baby johnson]

close on the score, but I'd give brady and co. about 10 more points....

jr capper