Super Bowl....something to think about.

[ChasDee]

We all know you can make a case (with stats) for either team in any NFL game, but especially when it comes to the Super Bowl. Here are a couple of stats I find interesting for betting purposes.

The point spread has come into play 9 times out of 49 games (one game was even) in the Super Bowl, and 4 times in the last 16 games. In the last 21 Super Bowls, the underdog is 13-5-3 against the spread.

This is Belichick and Brady's 7th Super Bowl. I find it interesting that the margin of victory in the previous 6 games have been.....3, 3, 3, 3, 4, and 4 points! New England's spread record in those 6 games is 2-4.

Matt Ryan is the 1st QB in NFL history with 3+ TD passes in 4 straight playoff games. Atlanta was a dog 5 times this year, winning 4 of those games outright and covering the point spread in all 5 games by an average margin of 12.4 points per game. Ryan converted 20-22 third downs vs Seattle and Green Bay the last two weeks. Atlanta has won 6 straight games by an average score of 39-19. (39 +19 = 58.....what's the over/under?? lol)

I'm not sure any of this means much, like I said you could make a compelling case for taking NE too... it's just something to think about.
:0003

 

[HUDSON]

Good stuff Chas......as of right now I'm leaning Falcons and ML! Probably won't make a play till closer to game day gotta a lot of stuff to read and look at still. But, yes there are solid cases for both sides in this game! It's a tough one.....I feel the wrong team is favored though. Oddsmakers put NE favorites just because its the PATRIOTS and everyone knows who they are and what they've done. They will be a major square play in this game, but sometimes square plays win

 

[ChasDee]

Good stuff Chas......as of right now I'm leaning Falcons and ML! Probably won't make a play till closer to game day gotta a lot of stuff to read and look at still. But, yes there are solid cases for both sides in this game! It's a tough one.....I feel the wrong team is favored though. Oddsmakers put NE favorites just because its the PATRIOTS and everyone knows who they are and what they've done. They will be a major square play in this game, but sometimes square plays win

I couldn't agree with you more HUD. I'm taking ATL and the Over. IMO the only way NE wins is to outscore Atlanta in a shoot out. I just can't see anybody stopping Matt Ryan and that offense right now.

 

[LordofBalls]

I couldn't agree with you more HUD. I'm taking ATL and the Over. IMO the only way NE wins is to outscore Atlanta in a shoot out. I just can't see anybody stopping Matt Ryan and that offense right now.

that's what I'm thinking too...
and to average that many ppg, the offensive coordinator has a good game plan, for many contingencies the defense throws at em


Belichek is famous for getting his defense to "take away the other teams best player".. which is probably Julio Jones, right?

So, if they take him away, Atlanta HAS TO expect that, and make a plan to get the other WR's/TE's/and RB's ready to make the plays.. Ryan is known for spreading the ball around anyway.

Atl's defense can be had (usually) but they stymied Sea/GB pretty well.. not fantastic, but pretty well.

So, I see both teams being able to move the ball effectively most of the game

I expect the game to reach the 50's easy... and hope it gets into the 60's.

maybe a teaser with Atl/Over is a good idea too!


PROPS:
BOTH QB's OVER in passing yardage (whatever that number may be)

just the way I'm thinking right now... GL to us few Falcon backers lol :0074

 

[BGFalcon]

I just can't see anybody stopping Matt Ryan and that offense right now.

I can see NE doing that.

 

[ChasDee]

I can see NE doing that.

Then maybe you should bet on New England! I'm betting they can't stop Atlanta. I don't think Atlanta can stop NE either....if you are right, it won't be the first time I've been wrong, that's for sure!!

 

[BGFalcon]

Then maybe you should bet on New England!

I did.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ChasDee]

I did.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Good luck....you're gonna need it!

 

[IE]

BG has done his homework, :spotting: , LOLOL (kidding)


The team in white has won 11 of the past 12 Super Bowls.

Falcons will wear red.
Patriots will wear white.


--thanks Scott

 

[yyz]

NE has never scored a 1st qtr TD in the Belichick era.

 

[ChasDee]

The underdog in Tom Brady's previous 6 SuperBowls is 5-0 ATS (SuperBowl 49 spread was a pick vs Seattle).

:142smilie

 

[Speed]

Big One...

Big One...

I Think "Commish" does NOT want to hand the Lombardi to Mr.Brady...Give me the points

 

[Little chippy]

Great write up Chas.

 

[ChasDee]

Great write up Chas.

Thanks Chippy!
It's always fun to go back and forth on these big games, but you can honestly make a case for either squad. good luck!

 

[Scrapman]

MAy i add this stat

the teams with highest scorins offenses in super bowls are almost 100% losers in bowls

when facing the top number 1 defense

PATRIOTS now are #1 defense giving up only an average of 15.7 PPG better than Broncos D of last year

YES Texans had best defense BUT since Pats disposed of them in Playoffs

they now are #1 defense

The only time the highest scoring offense won a superbowl was Montans 49ers but they also had good defense

This is same set up as Broncos getting buried by seahawks & Panthers got smoked by Broncos thye 15-1 Panthers highest scoring unstoppable offense last year

BUT Both teams were favored Broncos - 2 1/2 Panthers line dropped to - 5

THEY LOST so why is Patriots favored - 3

HERES reason Falcons D ranked at bottom of NFL 28th IN Air and on ground

more than half of teams they faced all subbie 500 teams ripped em for 28 points 32 points etc...

MODEL Game @ DENVER

pats WON 16-3 FALCONS WON 23 - 16

tHE FALCONS NEVER HELD ANY OF 16 TEAMS TO ONLY 3 POINTS

worst o0ffense in league scored TD's on them 2 or more

two bad west coast teams Rams n 49ers hit the teens

these two teams had trouble beating them selves this year both cleaned house HC's GM's gone

I 100% Guarantee Patriots hold falcons in 20's and are able to put up 35 points or more

 

[ChasDee]

MAy i add this stat

the teams with highest scorins offenses in super bowls are almost 100% losers in bowls

when facing the top number 1 defense

PATRIOTS now are #1 defense giving up only an average of 15.7 PPG better than Broncos D of last year

YES Texans had best defense BUT since Pats disposed of them in Playoffs

they now are #1 defense

The only time the highest scoring offense won a superbowl was Montans 49ers but they also had good defense

This is same set up as Broncos getting buried by seahawks & Panthers got smoked by Broncos thye 15-1 Panthers highest scoring unstoppable offense last year

BUT Both teams were favored Broncos - 2 1/2 Panthers line dropped to - 5

THEY LOST so why is Patriots favored - 3

HERES reason Falcons D ranked at bottom of NFL 28th IN Air and on ground

more than half of teams they faced all subbie 500 teams ripped em for 28 points 32 points etc...

MODEL Game @ DENVER

pats WON 16-3 FALCONS WON 23 - 16

tHE FALCONS NEVER HELD ANY OF 16 TEAMS TO ONLY 3 POINTS

worst o0ffense in league scored TD's on them 2 or more

two bad west coast teams Rams n 49ers hit the teens

these two teams had trouble beating them selves this year both cleaned house HC's GM's gone

I 100% Guarantee Patriots hold falcons in 20's and are able to put up 35 points or more

I know New England's defense is good, but not nearly as good as some of the Super Bowl winning teams in the past. Did you know there were 90 defensive scores in the NFL this year? 56 fumble returns and 34 INT returns.....NEW ENGLAND HAD A GRAND TOTAL OF 0!! By the way....speaking of defense, Atlanta was second in the league with 8 defensive scores, 2nd only to KC's 9. Also this year, 16 teams had more sacks than New England's defense had, so they are in the middle of the pack in QB sacks. I know New England has a good D. But I am wagering my money on Atlanta, because I don't think New England can stop them. I'm also taking over 58 because I don't think Atlanta can stop the Pats either. If I go 0-2, it won't be the first time. Good luck if you take Atlanta!

 

[Little chippy]

NE got early leads this year, and opponents with marginal QB play were forced to throw the ball to keep up. When considering defensive statistics, consider the strength of the opponent. The NE D is not as good as advertised

 

[LordofBalls]

NE got early leads this year, and opponents with marginal QB play were forced to throw the ball to keep up. When considering defensive statistics, consider the strength of the opponent. The NE D is not as good as advertised

Belichik and co. will have a good game plan, but NE played the weakest schedule in the nfl this yr, so I'm not overly impressed with their "#1 scoring defense"


I think Pats will have a very solid game plan (as usual) and offensively (being w/o Gronk) will probably mix in a few trick plays that get some yards and/or pts...

but Falcons ability to score in quantity all season long against a much more difficult schedule leads me to believe their Off Coord is capable of drawing up a great game plan and making adjustments if/when the defense came up with something they did not expect.

I think it will come down to turnovers... IF its even, then its a shootout, and I'll take my chances w/Falcons

If on the other hand, the Falcons come out nervous, turn it over.... u have to like the Pats to take advantage of that and get some cheap points in... still a high scoring affair in my eyes

Only way it stays under is if they keep turning it over after time-consuming drives..

my two cents anyway at this point

Falcons and Over (definitely Over) look good to me opcorn2

 

[T]

MAy i add this stat

the teams with highest scorins offenses in super bowls are almost 100% losers in bowls

when facing the top number 1 defense

PATRIOTS now are #1 defense giving up only an average of 15.7 PPG better than Broncos D of last year

YES Texans had best defense BUT since Pats disposed of them in Playoffs

they now are #1 defense

The only time the highest scoring offense won a superbowl was Montans 49ers but they also had good defense

This is same set up as Broncos getting buried by seahawks & Panthers got smoked by Broncos thye 15-1 Panthers highest scoring unstoppable offense last year

BUT Both teams were favored Broncos - 2 1/2 Panthers line dropped to - 5

THEY LOST so why is Patriots favored - 3

HERES reason Falcons D ranked at bottom of NFL 28th IN Air and on ground

more than half of teams they faced all subbie 500 teams ripped em for 28 points 32 points etc...

MODEL Game @ DENVER

pats WON 16-3 FALCONS WON 23 - 16

tHE FALCONS NEVER HELD ANY OF 16 TEAMS TO ONLY 3 POINTS

worst o0ffense in league scored TD's on them 2 or more

two bad west coast teams Rams n 49ers hit the teens

these two teams had trouble beating them selves this year both cleaned house HC's GM's gone

I 100% Guarantee Patriots hold falcons in 20's and are able to put up 35 points or more

Scrapman...Your guarantee is dead. You guaranteed GB would beat ATL and PITT would beat NE.

That neither NE or ATL would make it to the superbowl. Sorry but you had a great run but the stat book you

carry is officially CLOSED. :0074

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

Some integral angles worth pursing in a more in-depth fashion once we commence rolling out the absolute best Super Bowl LI gambling coverage available anywhere on the planet.

1. Experience: The Patriots enter Super Bowl LI with a roster that includes 21 players with prior Super Bowl experience, an architect in Bill Belichick who will be coaching his 36th playoff game and a quarterback in Tom Brady who will be starting his 34th postseason contest. Conversely, the Falcons boast a roster with just four players who have prior Super Bowl experience, a head coach in Dan Quinn who is in just his second season on the job and a quarterback in Matt Ryan who is 3-4 lifetime in the postseason. New England knows how to handle the demands that come from friends, family, the media, etc. in the build-up to a Super Bowl appearance. Atlanta does not. Edge: New England.

2. Julio Jones: The six-year veteran wideout ranked second in the NFL this season in receiving yards (1,409) and has been En fuego during the playoffs with 15 receptions for 247 yards and three scores through just eight quarters of action. But if there?s one thing we know about Bill Belichick, it?s that he?s a master at taking away an opponent?s top offensive weapon. In this case, that likely means playing man-to-man coverage on Jones with either cornerback Logan Ryan or Eric Rowe while simultaneously rolling a safety over the top to double-team the explosive Atlanta wide receiver. Whether or not Jones can fight through the double teams on Super Bowl Sunday is irrelevant. Instead, focus on the fact that Atlanta wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel will benefit from facing single coverage for the better part of professional football?s ultimate game. And you know what that means, right? Yep, we?re most likely going to bet the OVERS on all receptions and receiving yards props involving both Sanu and Taylor.

3. Unstoppable force vs. Immovable object: February 5 will mark the eighth time in Super Bowl history in which the NFL?s No. 1 scoring offense (Atlanta) goes head-to-head with the league?s No. 1 scoring defense (New England). In the previous seven title game encounters between the top offense and the top defense, the top defense has posted a record of 6-1 both straight-up and against-the-spread. Take a look:

2014: Seattle 43, Denver (-2.5) 8
1991: New York Giants 20, Buffalo (-7) 19
1990: San Francisco (-12) 55, Denver 10
1985: San Francisco (-3.5) 38, Miami 16
1979: Pittsburgh (-3.5) 35, Dallas 31
1970: Kansas City 23, Minnesota (-12) 7
1967: Green Bay (-14) 35, Kansas City 10

4. Points, points and more points: Super Bowl LI currently features a total of 58.5 points which, if it holds, would be the highest over/under in Super Bowl history. From a historical perspective, the OVER has cashed in four of the last six Super Bowls. In addition, the OVER is 4-1 in the five previous Super Bowls that have featured a matchup between the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 1 scoring defense (no total was offered for Super Bowl I). From a team perspective, the UNDER went 10-8 in New England games this year while the OVER went 15-2-1 in Atlanta contests this season. If you?re looking to make a contrarian play on the UNDER, you can go ahead and wait until Super Bowl Sunday, as the betting public will no doubt drive the current total higher prior to kickoff.

5. The road less traveled: There?s no such thing as a ?home team? when it comes to playing at a neutral site. There is, however, such a thing as a ?road team? when it comes to playing at a neutral site, as each franchise will find itself in an unfamiliar city sleeping in unfamiliar beds while playing in an unfamiliar stadium. So don?t waste any of your precious time over the next week studying home trends. Instead, focus on how both New England and Atlanta performed away from their home confines this season. In regards to the Patriots, New England went 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS on the road in 2016 while winning by an average of 12.6 points per game. As for Atlanta, the Falcons went 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS while outscoring the opposition by an average of 9.5 points per contest. The edge here may lie with the Patriots, but both of these organizations performed well above the norm when on the road in 2016.

I hate the F Patriots, but they find creative ways to win. Good Luck to everyone.