Super Bowl

[hogman14]

Funny, I always compared betting on the Super Bowl to going out drinking on New Year's Eve, or St. Patrick's Day. People coming out of the woodwork betting on squares, and on the game. Same people who snub you for betting Mid season MAC basketball. Just like the people who call you a drunk because you're at the local Elks club on a Tuesday afternoon trying to enjoy a few cold ones before the missus gets home, and they're the same aholes wearing a green tie on St. Patrick's Day, crashing up the minivan and wondering where you were...

Okay. Enough with the rants. Let's look at what the oddsmakers have given us to work with.

Player to score first TD:
Issac Redman 20-1
John Kuhn 10-1.

First Score
Steelers Rush TD 5-1

Adjusted Spread
Pitt -7.5 (3-1)

That's all I have for now.

I will provide writeups.

It has been a good year for me in the NFL. Probably the first year I've come out on top. Thanks to everyone here, and a lot of hard work, it's been a successful season.

PS. If anyone wants to do a hat bet, I'll take heads for the coin toss. It's better than me arbitrarily putting $100 on it with a local. I'd feel better getting a hat, or sending one off.

And if you want heads, I can be talked into tails, I'm just looking for the action.

First to reply.

More plays to come, probably not more props, will definitely dig into the side and why I think Pitt should win this one pretty handily. Bonus: my take on the total.


Stay tuned, and good luck!

 

[the addict]

im your huckleberry.

ill take tails for a hat/shirt bet. waddya talkin 20 bucks max ???????????? haha gotta get some details now. im in regardless:0074

 

[hogman14]

Mitchell and Ness Throwback 125$ minimum.

Just kidding.

Hat or Shirt. 20 max.
:toast:

 

[the addict]

Mitchell and Ness Throwback 125$ minimum.

Just kidding.

Hat or Shirt. 20 max.
:toast:

sounds good too me broseph. i have a throwback T already picked out man. $19.99 already picked out just waitin to be ordered after the ref says

"It is a tail, steelers your pick"

 

[hogman14]

John Kuhn is now 12-1.

I think if it gets to a close play to start off the game, Pitt's secondary will be looking pass. Kuhn has 3 TDs situationally on 1st and Goal (6 rushes, 8 yards, 3TD). He's a tough kid, and at 6 foot nothing, and 250lbs, he's built like an ox. I like him at that price.

Isaac Redman 20-1. Might be a stretch, but he could break free out of the backfield and get open for a score. With the uncertainty of Pouncey, surely Pitt will need some quick roll out type passes or the quick screens and at 20-1, why not Redman?

 

[hogman14]

The Big Game

The Big Game

Well, here we are.

"The Big Game"

A game where you have everyone from hookers to housewives looking for a piece of the action. Whether it's a $2 square, or a $1,500 side bet, everyone's tuned in. That said, the lines are usually razor sharp. I think the wrong team is favored, but we'll get into that later.

GREEN BAY:
Base 3-4 Defense. Studs on the left side in Matthews and Hawk. Matthews is outside, but can run as fast laterally and will create problems also in rushing the passer. B.J. Raji can be disruptive inside, recording 7 sacks this year. He'll need to hold on to two blockers, one of whom may not be the regular center for Pitt. Dom Capers has done an excellent job game planning week in and week out throughout the playoffs as well as regular season. He likes to run a "delay blitz" where he'll wait maybe 2 seconds, let his linebackers sort out what's going on, and then get after it.
Offensively is where I'm worried. Although they beat the Bears 21-14, Chicago held them after the first 14. Certainly we'll give credit where credit is due, but it was almost as if Chicago had figured them out after the barrage they took in the first quarter. We'll see if Tomlin and Co. can make similar adjustments.

PITTSBURGH:
Another base 3-4 team that just gets after the QB. They tell you they're going to blitz, and then they do it. About as well as anyone in the league. Their defense will be fast and stout enough to play whatever Green Bay wants to play. That said, I think whoever scores first may set the tempo of the game. I think GB wants to open it up more with the pass, where I can see Pitt using Miller and Mendenhall ad nauseum.

Green Bay 3-2 ATS on Turf, Over is 1-4 on Turf.
Pitt 2-2 ATS on Turf, Over is 1-3 on Turf.

I think this is a close one for a while, and Pitt pulls away.

28-17 Steelers.
Bets:
Steelers ML
Tease Steelers/Under.
Alt. Spread Steelers -7.5 (+300)

Good Luck folks.

Been a great year capping, and thanks to all MJers for making this a great forum!
:toast:

 

[grandpa]

My $.02

I like Pitt to win the game as well, but will be very surprised if it is by more than a TD.

After all, GB lost 8 games this year ( if you count two preseason losses, and I don't , but am doing so here for the sake of making my point), and their biggest loss was by 4 points.

More impressive than that is that the Pack has not trailed by more than 7 in any game this year.

In other words, they have played 23 times this year and have never trailed by more than 7, and to take Pitt -7.5, I would have to get way better odds than 3:1.

23:1 would still be a rip-off, but I would look at that, Anything less than 10:1 is a sucker-bet.

Pitt in a close one, 27-24.

Good luck all