Just some thoughts for now. Feel free to chime in.
There is a rumor that Marshawn Lynch has come out of retirement, and Seattle WILL give him the ball in goal line situations.
Much has been made of NE's weak schedule this year, and understandably so. BUT... there's so much parity in the NFL these days, that there's really not much difference between a 6-11 team and an 11-6 team. Honestly, I wouldn't put too much stock into that.
I'd say NE's run through the playoffs has been FAR more impressive that what Seattle has done. First of all, let's not forget NE had the 3rd-highest percentage of snaps by rookies in the league this year. That's not normally a recipe for success in the playoffs. And yet they have done what they needed to do to keep advancing.
They absolutely shut down the Chargers (207 total yards, 1-of-10 on 3rd down), then beat one of the best defenses in the NFL, then went on the road to beat maybe an even better defense. They held Justin Herbert to 159 yards and 3 points before playing 2 incompetent QBs their last 2. Now they get Sam Darnold. Think about it... Seattle wasn't trailing in many games. Darnold had the luxury of playing with the lead most of the time. So he rarely had to force throws. And yet only 2 QBs threw more INTs... Tua and Gino Smith.
Ok, back to the teams' respective playoff runs. While NE beat 3 solid teams, Seattle first beat an absolutely depleted SF team (even that game wasn't really that dominant of a performance, despite the deceptive final score. Seattle only had 45 more total yards than SF. And they only had one drive over 50 yards the entire game. Even that one drive would have been a 3-and-out if not for a defensive holding call on a run play.). Then Seattle beat the Rams. The Rams were playing their 3rd straight road game. And their defense was TERRIBLE. They gave up 31 points to Bryce Young, for fuck's sake.
Injuries... Maye isn't even listed on the Injury Report, so maybe his shoulder is ok. We'll see. Darnold is listed as Questionable with an oblique injury. Both defenses have a key defender listed as Questionable with ankle injuries. LB Spillane missed practice yesterday. That would be a big loss for the Pats. For Seattle, Hybrid Nickel/LB Emmanwori was limited in practice yesterday. They are insisting he'll be ready to go.
Coaching staffs... the NE staff, primarily with Vrabel (as a player) and McDaniels, has plenty of Super Bowl experience. The Seattle staff... no Super Bowl experience between the HC, OC, and DC. One note here... the NE DC, Terrell Williams, missed almost the entire season as he fought prostate cancer. Happily, he's doing well and has rejoined the team. I don't know how active his role will be for this game. I assume they wouldn't have him just step right back into calling defenses at this stage. I mean, the only game he coached this year, they lost to the Raiders. I gotta believe Vrabel is smart enough to keep the status quo that's been working all year.
I know, I'm a broken record... but the left side of the NE OL is worrisome. Rookies Campbell (LT) and Wilson (LG) have had their struggles in the playoffs. Maye was under pressure on 40% of his dropbacks against Denver, and Campbell was responsible for 5 of those. Now, Seattle doesn't normally generate the same kind of QB pressure that Denver does. The Seahawks were in the middle of the pack with Sacks, just as close to the 31st team as they were to the league leader. After 17 (rough estimate) fumbles his first two playoff games, Maye held onto the ball in the AFC Championship.
NE has been great in the first half all season. I think they were something like 14-3 ATS in the first half (16-5 including the playoffs). And they only trailed at halftime once all year.
I'll probably play some Unders in the first half and first quarter. I don't see either team having much offensive success early.
As far as Props, I'll probably bet both QBs to throw a pick. Also I'll be looking at Unders for TreVeyon Henderson. His production has fallen off a cliff in the playoffs. After averaging 5.1 yards/carry during the season, here's his production in the 3 playoff games:
27 yards on 9 carries against LAC.
25 yards on 12 carries against Houston.
5 yards on 3 carries against Denver.
Statistically, Seattle has the best run defense in the league, only allowing 3.7 yards/carry. I expect to bet Henderson Under 18.5 yards.
I'm conflicted on the side. If I had any discipline, I would probably stay off it. New England is so young. That left side of the OL scares me. Maye could turn it over 6 times. And yet... I don't know if I can bet Sam Darnold laying points in the Super Bowl.
There is a rumor that Marshawn Lynch has come out of retirement, and Seattle WILL give him the ball in goal line situations.
Much has been made of NE's weak schedule this year, and understandably so. BUT... there's so much parity in the NFL these days, that there's really not much difference between a 6-11 team and an 11-6 team. Honestly, I wouldn't put too much stock into that.
I'd say NE's run through the playoffs has been FAR more impressive that what Seattle has done. First of all, let's not forget NE had the 3rd-highest percentage of snaps by rookies in the league this year. That's not normally a recipe for success in the playoffs. And yet they have done what they needed to do to keep advancing.
They absolutely shut down the Chargers (207 total yards, 1-of-10 on 3rd down), then beat one of the best defenses in the NFL, then went on the road to beat maybe an even better defense. They held Justin Herbert to 159 yards and 3 points before playing 2 incompetent QBs their last 2. Now they get Sam Darnold. Think about it... Seattle wasn't trailing in many games. Darnold had the luxury of playing with the lead most of the time. So he rarely had to force throws. And yet only 2 QBs threw more INTs... Tua and Gino Smith.
Ok, back to the teams' respective playoff runs. While NE beat 3 solid teams, Seattle first beat an absolutely depleted SF team (even that game wasn't really that dominant of a performance, despite the deceptive final score. Seattle only had 45 more total yards than SF. And they only had one drive over 50 yards the entire game. Even that one drive would have been a 3-and-out if not for a defensive holding call on a run play.). Then Seattle beat the Rams. The Rams were playing their 3rd straight road game. And their defense was TERRIBLE. They gave up 31 points to Bryce Young, for fuck's sake.
Injuries... Maye isn't even listed on the Injury Report, so maybe his shoulder is ok. We'll see. Darnold is listed as Questionable with an oblique injury. Both defenses have a key defender listed as Questionable with ankle injuries. LB Spillane missed practice yesterday. That would be a big loss for the Pats. For Seattle, Hybrid Nickel/LB Emmanwori was limited in practice yesterday. They are insisting he'll be ready to go.
Coaching staffs... the NE staff, primarily with Vrabel (as a player) and McDaniels, has plenty of Super Bowl experience. The Seattle staff... no Super Bowl experience between the HC, OC, and DC. One note here... the NE DC, Terrell Williams, missed almost the entire season as he fought prostate cancer. Happily, he's doing well and has rejoined the team. I don't know how active his role will be for this game. I assume they wouldn't have him just step right back into calling defenses at this stage. I mean, the only game he coached this year, they lost to the Raiders. I gotta believe Vrabel is smart enough to keep the status quo that's been working all year.
I know, I'm a broken record... but the left side of the NE OL is worrisome. Rookies Campbell (LT) and Wilson (LG) have had their struggles in the playoffs. Maye was under pressure on 40% of his dropbacks against Denver, and Campbell was responsible for 5 of those. Now, Seattle doesn't normally generate the same kind of QB pressure that Denver does. The Seahawks were in the middle of the pack with Sacks, just as close to the 31st team as they were to the league leader. After 17 (rough estimate) fumbles his first two playoff games, Maye held onto the ball in the AFC Championship.
NE has been great in the first half all season. I think they were something like 14-3 ATS in the first half (16-5 including the playoffs). And they only trailed at halftime once all year.
I'll probably play some Unders in the first half and first quarter. I don't see either team having much offensive success early.
As far as Props, I'll probably bet both QBs to throw a pick. Also I'll be looking at Unders for TreVeyon Henderson. His production has fallen off a cliff in the playoffs. After averaging 5.1 yards/carry during the season, here's his production in the 3 playoff games:
27 yards on 9 carries against LAC.
25 yards on 12 carries against Houston.
5 yards on 3 carries against Denver.
Statistically, Seattle has the best run defense in the league, only allowing 3.7 yards/carry. I expect to bet Henderson Under 18.5 yards.
I'm conflicted on the side. If I had any discipline, I would probably stay off it. New England is so young. That left side of the OL scares me. Maye could turn it over 6 times. And yet... I don't know if I can bet Sam Darnold laying points in the Super Bowl.
