that's right, superb owl. i ain't getting sued by the nfl.
let me start by saying that i was on the wrong side of 5 straight SBs involving new england, until getting the last 2 right. so rams' backers should be happy.
i'll start with all the negatives i can think of off the top of my head... ne is one miraculous comeback away from being 0-6 ATS as a fav in the SB. they really haven't played great in a single SB. their largest margin of victory in a SB (not including OT) is 4. if not for that crazy comeback and the seahawks throwing the ball at the goal line, the pats easily could/should have lost their last 5 SBs. outside of the afc east, the pats were 6-4 this year. they beat a vastly overrated chiefs team in the afc championship.
so why is most of my money on the pats? well, belichick vs mcvay is a huge mismatch. some of the in-game decisions mcvay makes are really, really stupid. it may only take one stupid decision to cost the rams the game tonight. and he may make a few, trying really hard to outcoach belichick.
neither team stops the run very well. that would appear to give an advantage to the rams. but since we still don't know what's going on with gurley, i wouldn't count on him being a big factor. and i trust belichick to stick with the run a lot more than i trust mcvay to.
speaking of trust, i have zero faith in goff in a big game until he proves me wrong.
ok, i've taken so long doing my research that it's only 50 minutes 'til kickoff. so i'd better post what i'm doing.
rams 1H (+.5) 3 units
1H under (27) 3 units. the pats have been notoriously slow starters in the SB. and goff will be nervous early, so hard to imagine he'll get in much of a rhythm in the first half.
NE (-2) 3 units
over (55.5) 3 units. belichick vs mcvay... brady vs goff... is gurley really healthy?... i think the second half is going to be simliar to ne/kc, when both teams just started marching up and down the field virtually unopposed. although brady has certainly looked his age at times, i trust him more in a close game in the 4th quarter.
oh, and as i say every year, you shouldn't be the SB until you read bill barnwell's breakdown...
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25877288/barnwell-super-bowl-liii-preview-need-know-patriots-rams-2019
let me start by saying that i was on the wrong side of 5 straight SBs involving new england, until getting the last 2 right. so rams' backers should be happy.
i'll start with all the negatives i can think of off the top of my head... ne is one miraculous comeback away from being 0-6 ATS as a fav in the SB. they really haven't played great in a single SB. their largest margin of victory in a SB (not including OT) is 4. if not for that crazy comeback and the seahawks throwing the ball at the goal line, the pats easily could/should have lost their last 5 SBs. outside of the afc east, the pats were 6-4 this year. they beat a vastly overrated chiefs team in the afc championship.
so why is most of my money on the pats? well, belichick vs mcvay is a huge mismatch. some of the in-game decisions mcvay makes are really, really stupid. it may only take one stupid decision to cost the rams the game tonight. and he may make a few, trying really hard to outcoach belichick.
neither team stops the run very well. that would appear to give an advantage to the rams. but since we still don't know what's going on with gurley, i wouldn't count on him being a big factor. and i trust belichick to stick with the run a lot more than i trust mcvay to.
speaking of trust, i have zero faith in goff in a big game until he proves me wrong.
ok, i've taken so long doing my research that it's only 50 minutes 'til kickoff. so i'd better post what i'm doing.
rams 1H (+.5) 3 units
1H under (27) 3 units. the pats have been notoriously slow starters in the SB. and goff will be nervous early, so hard to imagine he'll get in much of a rhythm in the first half.
NE (-2) 3 units
over (55.5) 3 units. belichick vs mcvay... brady vs goff... is gurley really healthy?... i think the second half is going to be simliar to ne/kc, when both teams just started marching up and down the field virtually unopposed. although brady has certainly looked his age at times, i trust him more in a close game in the 4th quarter.
oh, and as i say every year, you shouldn't be the SB until you read bill barnwell's breakdown...
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25877288/barnwell-super-bowl-liii-preview-need-know-patriots-rams-2019
