2/7/2016 6:30 PM NFL Football 101 Carolina Panthers/Denver Broncos* Under 23 -120 3% for 2nd Half
2/7/2016 6:30 PM NFL Football 101 Carolina Panthers*TT Under 14? -125 4% vs Denver Broncos for 2nd Half
Cam Newton was pressured on 191 dropbacks this season. His output was 51%, 6TD, 6INT and th his qb rating dopped to 58.6 on those plays.. When under pressure, Cam Newton still struggles to read defenses. In their only loss at ATL, A team that was worst in sacks at 19. But cam had nowhere to run because he was pressured on the edge and spied up the middle. Cam Newton got pressured on 16 of 34 dropbacks, Thus his bad performance.. Newton couldn't escape from the pocket (2 scrambles) because of the edge rush. Carolina faced 1 team in the top 10 on sacks and knockdowns combined -Houston and they struggled against Ryan Mallet. 13 of there wins were against teams that just do not pressure the qb consistently Like 10 of those wins rated in bottom 10 . Here comes Denver who led the NFL in sacks by a wide margin but also pressured the qb on 37% of all dropbacks and knocked down the qb 24% of all dropbacks. Both tops by far.. Denver played against some mobile qbs. Smith twice(besides Newton most mobile qb) who also runs a O similiar too Carolina. Gbay Rodgers is not just a rushing threat but beyond elusive in the pocket. Bridgwater and I would argue Brady. Why he is great in the pocket and outside of Denver this year twice was only knocked around in 1 other game. I believe Newton is pressured continually. He will run and will get some yards. but I have Carolina at 100 yards rushing but will struggle mightily thru the air. The denver pass d is beyond stout. Look at the. good passing teams they faced. They give up 199 yards a game and led the NFL in completions over 20 yards by a wide margin. Carolina pass game is predicated on the big play thru the tend. They run well teams have to cheat put 7 in the box many times leaving slow backers on Olsen and pathetic pass d on there very average recievers. Carolina had 1 win agaist a good pass D who was also good at the run and pressure the qb(a key)-That was Houston. Every other team they played Was pathetic either against th and e run or pass or both. Now you can say what about Seattle or Zona. Well neither one is good at pressuring the qb. Like 19th and 20th in sacks and 15th and 27th in pressures. If Cam feels comfortable and his recievers can get down field his qb rating goes to 93.2. None of things will happen with Denver. They will cheat 7 right away press the edges and spy newot with Marshal is one of the best run stoppers in the NFL who does not miss tackles. They will have Talib and Harris on the wideouts. Mismatches on both sides. Then Stewart and Ward on Olsen who accounts for 30% of there passing yardage and 70% of there big plays. I have Carolinas tackles as the 4th worst in the NFL. Miller and Ward will have there way. Best DEND Tandem by far. If Carolina gets to 24 will be shocked.
Now the Carolina d against the Bronco O- Carolina ranks 6th-They are good-Very Good. Denver O sucks. I completely disagree. Denver has averaged 24 points to 4 of those 5 games top 10 defenses, Cincy,Pitt twice and Newengland. The last 6 games they have averaged 128 yards on the ground. Manning qb rating since coming back in second half of San Diego game is 93.6 Compared to 67 before he got hurt. I believe Denver uses some multiple te packages. I heard Vernon Davis will be in alot this game. They run for 100
and alot of short passes.Norman is a shut down much like both Denvers corners. But Harper is a huge liability. Did not show up in last 2 games as much because of the huge leads Carolina had. But against Giants Atlanta and Saints he got crushed. When carolina could not drop 7 in coverage Harper gave up 29 catches, 358 yards and 4tds. Carolina is out 3 starters on D from week 12 on. Meanwhile Davis is in a cast -tough to defend the pass with a cast. He will be tested on the shoties often. There is no reason Denver does not put 20 on the board.
Now the intangibles,
Games with at least 70% of the tickets coming on a side.
THE FIRST ARE ESTIMATES DUE TOO MY BOOK TIES
SB 3- 71% ON BALTIMORE
SB 4 -68% ON VIKINGS
SB 32- 73% ON PACKERS
SB 35 - 68% ON GIANTS
SB 42- 76% ON PATRIOTS -HIGHEST EVER
SB-50 THIS WILL CLOSE MID 70s
This matters - all these lines were opened lower than expected. All them got beat all were dogs. Now are there alot of favs covering yes. But below 64% on tickets.
Teams with the #1 d rushing,passing and pressures have won every SB. 9 occasions
THE SHARPS ARE ON DENVER. Alot of them took panthers -3 and will buy back for alot more on denver over next 48 hours.
I had this line Denver -3 On neutral field - +2 at Carolina. What this line says is Carolina is a 10 point fav at Carolina. RIDICULOUS
Shanahan -Kubiaks mentor has been very much of the rocess the last 5 week. There staff has way mor experience in this situation.
I can give you some compelling trends for d winning sb - People will come back and say like turnover difference is like 24-6 or something. But if you take the to d in that equation they are 7-1 ats. Broncos tos have dropped dramatically last 6 games
The total is 44.5 now -was 46 with 75% on over- Vegas knows this will be close. - Carolina scores 31 -Denver 22- Last 5 games 36 and 24 -
Over should be a cakewalk- But line drops. THis game says slugfest All over -This reminds me of sB 36 -RAMS-PATS. - 75% OF TICKETS ALL ON RAMS OVER AND RAMS AT 70%. Huge money comes in late on under and pats. Closes under on both
I have BRONCOS 20-17
2/7/2016 6:30 PM NFL Football 101 Carolina Panthers*TT Under 14? -125 4% vs Denver Broncos for 2nd Half
Cam Newton was pressured on 191 dropbacks this season. His output was 51%, 6TD, 6INT and th his qb rating dopped to 58.6 on those plays.. When under pressure, Cam Newton still struggles to read defenses. In their only loss at ATL, A team that was worst in sacks at 19. But cam had nowhere to run because he was pressured on the edge and spied up the middle. Cam Newton got pressured on 16 of 34 dropbacks, Thus his bad performance.. Newton couldn't escape from the pocket (2 scrambles) because of the edge rush. Carolina faced 1 team in the top 10 on sacks and knockdowns combined -Houston and they struggled against Ryan Mallet. 13 of there wins were against teams that just do not pressure the qb consistently Like 10 of those wins rated in bottom 10 . Here comes Denver who led the NFL in sacks by a wide margin but also pressured the qb on 37% of all dropbacks and knocked down the qb 24% of all dropbacks. Both tops by far.. Denver played against some mobile qbs. Smith twice(besides Newton most mobile qb) who also runs a O similiar too Carolina. Gbay Rodgers is not just a rushing threat but beyond elusive in the pocket. Bridgwater and I would argue Brady. Why he is great in the pocket and outside of Denver this year twice was only knocked around in 1 other game. I believe Newton is pressured continually. He will run and will get some yards. but I have Carolina at 100 yards rushing but will struggle mightily thru the air. The denver pass d is beyond stout. Look at the. good passing teams they faced. They give up 199 yards a game and led the NFL in completions over 20 yards by a wide margin. Carolina pass game is predicated on the big play thru the tend. They run well teams have to cheat put 7 in the box many times leaving slow backers on Olsen and pathetic pass d on there very average recievers. Carolina had 1 win agaist a good pass D who was also good at the run and pressure the qb(a key)-That was Houston. Every other team they played Was pathetic either against th and e run or pass or both. Now you can say what about Seattle or Zona. Well neither one is good at pressuring the qb. Like 19th and 20th in sacks and 15th and 27th in pressures. If Cam feels comfortable and his recievers can get down field his qb rating goes to 93.2. None of things will happen with Denver. They will cheat 7 right away press the edges and spy newot with Marshal is one of the best run stoppers in the NFL who does not miss tackles. They will have Talib and Harris on the wideouts. Mismatches on both sides. Then Stewart and Ward on Olsen who accounts for 30% of there passing yardage and 70% of there big plays. I have Carolinas tackles as the 4th worst in the NFL. Miller and Ward will have there way. Best DEND Tandem by far. If Carolina gets to 24 will be shocked.
Now the Carolina d against the Bronco O- Carolina ranks 6th-They are good-Very Good. Denver O sucks. I completely disagree. Denver has averaged 24 points to 4 of those 5 games top 10 defenses, Cincy,Pitt twice and Newengland. The last 6 games they have averaged 128 yards on the ground. Manning qb rating since coming back in second half of San Diego game is 93.6 Compared to 67 before he got hurt. I believe Denver uses some multiple te packages. I heard Vernon Davis will be in alot this game. They run for 100
and alot of short passes.Norman is a shut down much like both Denvers corners. But Harper is a huge liability. Did not show up in last 2 games as much because of the huge leads Carolina had. But against Giants Atlanta and Saints he got crushed. When carolina could not drop 7 in coverage Harper gave up 29 catches, 358 yards and 4tds. Carolina is out 3 starters on D from week 12 on. Meanwhile Davis is in a cast -tough to defend the pass with a cast. He will be tested on the shoties often. There is no reason Denver does not put 20 on the board.
Now the intangibles,
Games with at least 70% of the tickets coming on a side.
THE FIRST ARE ESTIMATES DUE TOO MY BOOK TIES
SB 3- 71% ON BALTIMORE
SB 4 -68% ON VIKINGS
SB 32- 73% ON PACKERS
SB 35 - 68% ON GIANTS
SB 42- 76% ON PATRIOTS -HIGHEST EVER
SB-50 THIS WILL CLOSE MID 70s
This matters - all these lines were opened lower than expected. All them got beat all were dogs. Now are there alot of favs covering yes. But below 64% on tickets.
Teams with the #1 d rushing,passing and pressures have won every SB. 9 occasions
THE SHARPS ARE ON DENVER. Alot of them took panthers -3 and will buy back for alot more on denver over next 48 hours.
I had this line Denver -3 On neutral field - +2 at Carolina. What this line says is Carolina is a 10 point fav at Carolina. RIDICULOUS
Shanahan -Kubiaks mentor has been very much of the rocess the last 5 week. There staff has way mor experience in this situation.
I can give you some compelling trends for d winning sb - People will come back and say like turnover difference is like 24-6 or something. But if you take the to d in that equation they are 7-1 ats. Broncos tos have dropped dramatically last 6 games
The total is 44.5 now -was 46 with 75% on over- Vegas knows this will be close. - Carolina scores 31 -Denver 22- Last 5 games 36 and 24 -
Over should be a cakewalk- But line drops. THis game says slugfest All over -This reminds me of sB 36 -RAMS-PATS. - 75% OF TICKETS ALL ON RAMS OVER AND RAMS AT 70%. Huge money comes in late on under and pats. Closes under on both
I have BRONCOS 20-17
