superbowl plays & info....
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
mr c..
i agree with you.....seattle doesn't seem to play as well on the road....
i've been trying to find out where i can view the box scores on those away games.....specifically how many points did seattle give up on the road that are considered "garbage points".....
i checked a book site that gives percentages of plays....
57% on pitt
43% on seattle
59% on pitt moneyline
41% on seattle moneyline
52% on the over
48% on the under
2 things that surprise me....
i thought that about 65-70% would be on pitt....so much for seattle not getting respected...
and i thought that more people would be on the over....
any thoughts on these guys...
i agree with you.....seattle doesn't seem to play as well on the road....
i've been trying to find out where i can view the box scores on those away games.....specifically how many points did seattle give up on the road that are considered "garbage points".....
i checked a book site that gives percentages of plays....
57% on pitt
43% on seattle
59% on pitt moneyline
41% on seattle moneyline
52% on the over
48% on the under
2 things that surprise me....
i thought that about 65-70% would be on pitt....so much for seattle not getting respected...
and i thought that more people would be on the over....
any thoughts on these guys...
AR, You can just use the NFL.com weekly scoreboard for the boxscores...or there's another good site I use;
http://www.jt-sw.com/football/boxes/index.nsf
(Sorry if that offends anyone)
But, just off the top of my head, I'm pretty sure Seattle actually had to come from behind late to beat Tenn...
SF scored the last TD and had the 2 pt conversion attempt for OT...
They lost @ Jax and Wash...so not alot of garbage points I wouldn't have thought.
It will be interesting to see if there's any late line movement, that's for sure.
http://www.jt-sw.com/football/boxes/index.nsf
(Sorry if that offends anyone)
But, just off the top of my head, I'm pretty sure Seattle actually had to come from behind late to beat Tenn...
SF scored the last TD and had the 2 pt conversion attempt for OT...
They lost @ Jax and Wash...so not alot of garbage points I wouldn't have thought.
It will be interesting to see if there's any late line movement, that's for sure.
- Nov 7, 2004
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AR...
AR...
The oddsmakers set the opening line at 3, maybe 3.5 depending on the sportsbook. This had me thnking right off the bat. With the way Pitt had rolled through the playoffs beating Cincy, Indy, and Denver all on the road , in my eyes they would and should be the clear cut fav for the SuperBowl.
What confuses me about this number is the fact that Vegas had to know that Pitt would also be the overwelming sendemental favorite. "Jermoe Bettis comes home",The "blue collar" style of play comming to Detroit......ESPN and FOX are all over it!
All I hear is ALL of the $$$$ is comming in on Pitt. As you noted AR, every site that I've checked shows no more than 57%!!!
I know a couple local books and one from my hometown. He has already moved the line to 5 and told me if late action moves in the same direction, he won't hesitate to take it up to 6 or 6.5. For him at this point its 80%-%20 Pitt!
What does Vegas know? Will all of the late betting action come in on Pitt? Would Vegas risk taking another beating like they did with Baltimore? When is the last time you've seen someone wearing a Seahawks jersey that isn't from Seattle?, well I know the answer to that one ....NEVER.
As time expired and Pitt walked off the field in Denver, I thought to myself " Pitt is going to win the Superbowl"...now I'm having second thoughts.
AR...
The oddsmakers set the opening line at 3, maybe 3.5 depending on the sportsbook. This had me thnking right off the bat. With the way Pitt had rolled through the playoffs beating Cincy, Indy, and Denver all on the road , in my eyes they would and should be the clear cut fav for the SuperBowl.
What confuses me about this number is the fact that Vegas had to know that Pitt would also be the overwelming sendemental favorite. "Jermoe Bettis comes home",The "blue collar" style of play comming to Detroit......ESPN and FOX are all over it!
All I hear is ALL of the $$$$ is comming in on Pitt. As you noted AR, every site that I've checked shows no more than 57%!!!
I know a couple local books and one from my hometown. He has already moved the line to 5 and told me if late action moves in the same direction, he won't hesitate to take it up to 6 or 6.5. For him at this point its 80%-%20 Pitt!
What does Vegas know? Will all of the late betting action come in on Pitt? Would Vegas risk taking another beating like they did with Baltimore? When is the last time you've seen someone wearing a Seahawks jersey that isn't from Seattle?, well I know the answer to that one ....NEVER.
As time expired and Pitt walked off the field in Denver, I thought to myself " Pitt is going to win the Superbowl"...now I'm having second thoughts.
mully...
thanks for your post....
i will definitely bet pitt......but not sure the amount.....i'm hoping the line goes up to 6...but not sure that it will.....
if i keep the 10* that i have on pitt-3..i will be going double or nothing on my playoff winings..which i built up by making larger bets on seattle in both of their wins....
good luck.
thanks for your post....
i will definitely bet pitt......but not sure the amount.....i'm hoping the line goes up to 6...but not sure that it will.....
if i keep the 10* that i have on pitt-3..i will be going double or nothing on my playoff winings..which i built up by making larger bets on seattle in both of their wins....
good luck.
i just got off the phone with my friend who got the results of phil steele's superbowl system.....
they claim the system to be 32-5-2....86%
i don't know if it's true & i won't verify it..so i'll take them at their word....
the results of this year's game....
pitt........total points 47.5
seattle...total points 20
subtracting the difference....27.5
they claim that there have been 18 superbowl games above 20 points with the record at 15-3...
they claim the system to be 32-5-2....86%
i don't know if it's true & i won't verify it..so i'll take them at their word....
the results of this year's game....
pitt........total points 47.5
seattle...total points 20
subtracting the difference....27.5
they claim that there have been 18 superbowl games above 20 points with the record at 15-3...
today this book has..
people betting seattle....45%
people betting pitt.........55%
people betting the moneyline on seattle....43% people betting the moneyline on pitt.........57%
people betting the under.........................47% people betting the over...........................53%
i have read 6 newsletters.....4 pick seattle & 2 are on pitt....
most of the talking heads (theisman,simms,)that i have seen are picking seattle.....
so i still don't understand how people say that everybody is on pitt.....
people betting seattle....45%
people betting pitt.........55%
people betting the moneyline on seattle....43% people betting the moneyline on pitt.........57%
people betting the under.........................47% people betting the over...........................53%
i have read 6 newsletters.....4 pick seattle & 2 are on pitt....
most of the talking heads (theisman,simms,)that i have seen are picking seattle.....
so i still don't understand how people say that everybody is on pitt.....
season records....
nfl regular season..........64-47.........+15.50*
nfl playoffs....................4-4............+13.49*
college regular season....173-109-4...+70.20*
college bowl season.......10-6...........+7.63*
10*pitt.-3(130)....bought this early...
although my playoff record is at 50%, i'm still up over 13*because i hit 2 big bets on seattle in both of their games....i took them because the situations favored the seahawks in both games.....wash. was playing their 3rd straight road game with brunell & portis both showing the signs of playing a long season....& carolina who was playing their 4th straight road game & was down to their 3rd string back for the game (he was lost in the 1st quarter).........
in no particular order this is why i'm taking pitt.....
seattle has played the 32nd toughest schedule in the nfl this season....8 of their 15 wins this season came against teams that posted a combined won/loss record of 21-59.....
imo,much of seattle's stats are a product of who they played.....so in my opinion seattle is not battle tested like pitt......during the regular season, seattle went 1-4 ats against their strongest opponents....atl, wash., dallas, giants, & jax.....
seattle has the biggest disparity between playing home with the "12th man" & on the road...they haven't beaten a winning team on the road this year.....seattle's defense has given up an average of 21 points per game on the road, while pitts. defense gives up an average of 13.5 points per game...
seattle's defense is very light & teams with a solid running game like pitt, have done well this year against them as jax., wash.(with a healthy portis in the 1st game),dallas, & the giants averaged 148 ypg & 4.3 ypr.....imo the problem for seattle in this game is that the pitt. offense is the most experienced & best balance offense that seattle has faced the entire year....
pitt. has won 16 of their last 18 away games & are 26-4 su with big ben at quarterback...they are 23-9 ats vs. teams with a winning record.......
including the playoffs, pitt. has beaten on the road this year......san diego, cinn. twice, indy, & denver...all teams that imo are equal to or better than seattle.....
pitts. defensive coordinator, dick ****** developed the zone bltz 2 decades ago to counter the west coast offense....pitts d-line is very tough & disciplined & play their gap assignments very well.....along with outstanding linebackers they have allowed only 1 runner to gain over 100 yds. in the last 32 games, including playoffs.....pitts ability to constantly shutdown their opponents running attack has forced the opposition to go away from their game plan quicker than they expected....& forcing turnovers....
seattle has faced one 3-4 defense similar to pitt this year.....dallas limited them to 289 total yards (game was at seattle) after seattle averaged 408 yds. per game entering that game.....
seattle is 1-6 su/ats the week after a bye...
imo, the 2 week layoff has benefited pitt. more than seattle....
in the previous 39 super bowl games only 8 times has a team been favored by more than 3 points but less than 7 points....the favorite's record is 7-1 ats....
there is a well respected capper at another site that developed hias own super bowl system....it reads...
take a team with the greater amount of regular season games in which they have held their opponents to less than 10 points a game...if the number is equal take the dog....
seattle has stopped opponents from scoring 10 or more points twice.....while pitt. has done it 5 times......so the system says to take pitt....
this system's record....
17-5-2 ats in the last 24 superbowls
10-3-2 ats in the last 15
7-1-2 ats in the last 10...
since this is the last football game of the year i would like to thank everybody for their contributions to the forum....you're participation has helped me tremendously & in turn i hope i was able to contribute something worthwhile to all the members here.....my goal this year was to come out on the plus side of the ledger & with your help i was able to reach it.....
good luck.
nfl regular season..........64-47.........+15.50*
nfl playoffs....................4-4............+13.49*
college regular season....173-109-4...+70.20*
college bowl season.......10-6...........+7.63*
10*pitt.-3(130)....bought this early...
although my playoff record is at 50%, i'm still up over 13*because i hit 2 big bets on seattle in both of their games....i took them because the situations favored the seahawks in both games.....wash. was playing their 3rd straight road game with brunell & portis both showing the signs of playing a long season....& carolina who was playing their 4th straight road game & was down to their 3rd string back for the game (he was lost in the 1st quarter).........
in no particular order this is why i'm taking pitt.....
seattle has played the 32nd toughest schedule in the nfl this season....8 of their 15 wins this season came against teams that posted a combined won/loss record of 21-59.....
imo,much of seattle's stats are a product of who they played.....so in my opinion seattle is not battle tested like pitt......during the regular season, seattle went 1-4 ats against their strongest opponents....atl, wash., dallas, giants, & jax.....
seattle has the biggest disparity between playing home with the "12th man" & on the road...they haven't beaten a winning team on the road this year.....seattle's defense has given up an average of 21 points per game on the road, while pitts. defense gives up an average of 13.5 points per game...
seattle's defense is very light & teams with a solid running game like pitt, have done well this year against them as jax., wash.(with a healthy portis in the 1st game),dallas, & the giants averaged 148 ypg & 4.3 ypr.....imo the problem for seattle in this game is that the pitt. offense is the most experienced & best balance offense that seattle has faced the entire year....
pitt. has won 16 of their last 18 away games & are 26-4 su with big ben at quarterback...they are 23-9 ats vs. teams with a winning record.......
including the playoffs, pitt. has beaten on the road this year......san diego, cinn. twice, indy, & denver...all teams that imo are equal to or better than seattle.....
pitts. defensive coordinator, dick ****** developed the zone bltz 2 decades ago to counter the west coast offense....pitts d-line is very tough & disciplined & play their gap assignments very well.....along with outstanding linebackers they have allowed only 1 runner to gain over 100 yds. in the last 32 games, including playoffs.....pitts ability to constantly shutdown their opponents running attack has forced the opposition to go away from their game plan quicker than they expected....& forcing turnovers....
seattle has faced one 3-4 defense similar to pitt this year.....dallas limited them to 289 total yards (game was at seattle) after seattle averaged 408 yds. per game entering that game.....
seattle is 1-6 su/ats the week after a bye...
imo, the 2 week layoff has benefited pitt. more than seattle....
in the previous 39 super bowl games only 8 times has a team been favored by more than 3 points but less than 7 points....the favorite's record is 7-1 ats....
there is a well respected capper at another site that developed hias own super bowl system....it reads...
take a team with the greater amount of regular season games in which they have held their opponents to less than 10 points a game...if the number is equal take the dog....
seattle has stopped opponents from scoring 10 or more points twice.....while pitt. has done it 5 times......so the system says to take pitt....
this system's record....
17-5-2 ats in the last 24 superbowls
10-3-2 ats in the last 15
7-1-2 ats in the last 10...
since this is the last football game of the year i would like to thank everybody for their contributions to the forum....you're participation has helped me tremendously & in turn i hope i was able to contribute something worthwhile to all the members here.....my goal this year was to come out on the plus side of the ledger & with your help i was able to reach it.....
good luck.
SUPER BOWL RECAP
Pittsburgh over Seattle by 7 (at Detroit, MI)
When handicapping this season?s Super Bowl let?s not lose sight of one significant fact. The Steelers went 15-1 last year and are basically the same team this season with several exceptions. Second-year QB Ben Roethlisberger has more big-game experience and added confidence. He?s playing at a high level. The offensive line is healthier. Willie Parker has given more speed to the tailback spot while presenting an outside threat. Safety Troy Polamalu has developed into a dominating player. The Seahawks have yet to beat a team with a winning record away from Seattle and lack marquee wide receivers and a tight end that can stretch the field. PITTSBURGH 24-17.
OVER/UNDER: Oddsmaker?s have a distinct tendency to shade the total high on the Super Bowl knowing most people root and enjoy high-scoring games. That?s the case here for this matchup. Both Pittsburgh and Seattle are run-oriented, power teams, more comfortable eating clock and churning out yards on the ground. Neither team has great speed at the flanks, relying on possession receivers. Seattle?s defense doesn?t get the attention Pittsburgh?s does, but the Seahawks allowed only 16.9 points a game.Points will be scored here. Just not enough of them to push the total over.
Pittsburgh over Seattle by 7 (at Detroit, MI)
When handicapping this season?s Super Bowl let?s not lose sight of one significant fact. The Steelers went 15-1 last year and are basically the same team this season with several exceptions. Second-year QB Ben Roethlisberger has more big-game experience and added confidence. He?s playing at a high level. The offensive line is healthier. Willie Parker has given more speed to the tailback spot while presenting an outside threat. Safety Troy Polamalu has developed into a dominating player. The Seahawks have yet to beat a team with a winning record away from Seattle and lack marquee wide receivers and a tight end that can stretch the field. PITTSBURGH 24-17.
OVER/UNDER: Oddsmaker?s have a distinct tendency to shade the total high on the Super Bowl knowing most people root and enjoy high-scoring games. That?s the case here for this matchup. Both Pittsburgh and Seattle are run-oriented, power teams, more comfortable eating clock and churning out yards on the ground. Neither team has great speed at the flanks, relying on possession receivers. Seattle?s defense doesn?t get the attention Pittsburgh?s does, but the Seahawks allowed only 16.9 points a game.Points will be scored here. Just not enough of them to push the total over.
Teams match differently against other teams. In my opinion, if Carson Palmer won't have gotten hurt, pitts. would have lost their first game. With that being said, how many west coast off. have the steelers played this year. One, two? West Coast offense is something it takes along time to learn to defend.
Seattle ML
Seattle ML
i`m also on this big steeler bandwagon.....caught it as steelers vs "nfc winner" at 3.5 and bought down to 3...
the road home/ thing caught my eye...and the way the squeelers got here.... there should be a huge steeler contingent there....
the one thing that concerned me was the hasselback/roethlisberger comparison...
if i recall,big ben crapped out in the afc championship game last year.....
and i happened to take a gander at hasselback`s stats over the past 4 years.....pretty much consistent,steady improvement... to the point where he really has to be considered an elite nfl qb....right now..check those stats.....and he`s mobile....throw the balance that alexander affords them..and they`re very dangerous...
hasselback scares me....
i may also tease the over with pitts.....
i see jurevicius and stevens causing problems...looking for props on these two....
i hope big ben plays as well as he has recently....
g.l.,guys
the road home/ thing caught my eye...and the way the squeelers got here.... there should be a huge steeler contingent there....
the one thing that concerned me was the hasselback/roethlisberger comparison...
if i recall,big ben crapped out in the afc championship game last year.....
and i happened to take a gander at hasselback`s stats over the past 4 years.....pretty much consistent,steady improvement... to the point where he really has to be considered an elite nfl qb....right now..check those stats.....and he`s mobile....throw the balance that alexander affords them..and they`re very dangerous...
hasselback scares me....
i may also tease the over with pitts.....
i see jurevicius and stevens causing problems...looking for props on these two....
i hope big ben plays as well as he has recently....
g.l.,guys
