Superbowl system works every year

[Scrapman]

found by googling systems for nfl


There is a thread originally posted by DW (now banned) regarding a system that helps revealing frauds in the playoffs. The thread was posted on 11/06/2010. The system uses total yards - total defense yards, then divided by the 16 games. Anyone with an average of at least +35 yards generally does well in the playoffs. It also mentions the t/o ration being important also. Anyways here are the numbers...they kind of coincide with playoff seeds.

AFC
Denver +107.125 / -1 TO
New England +54.625 / +25 TO
Houston +48.812 / +12 TO
Cincy +13 / +4 TO
Baltimore +1.562 / +9 TO
Colts -11.812 / -12 TO

NFC
San Fran +67.437 / +9 TO
Seabirds +44.437 / +13 TO
ATL +26.062 / +13 TO
GB +22.687 / +7 TO
Wash +5.5 / +17 TO
Minn -13.437 / -1 TO

a reply here from another user clears it up


YES that's the system all though last years neither team qualified but once again defense wins championships prevailed

teams that meet the requirements you can eliminate every team with a rookie QB so remove Seattle , 49ers, colts redskins ,

remove teams who lost to tampa bay in season none ever won a superbowl except saints who decided to go bench final 3 games of year

Vikings lost to Tampa at home on thursday night

Falcons got hammered at Home by tamapa and they played starters all 4 quarters

they both will be exiting playoffs again

also sos comes intoplay the teams that got in on a losers schedule will go bye bye

two of them are Denver and atalanta

also NO superbowl loser ever got back to bowl in following year (only the bills pulled it off)

the bowl losers who went kaboom next year are from earliest
i can remember ,Rams Panthers, Eagles, Cardinals , Patriots Seahawks

so say bye bye to Patriots whom again their defense is ranked at bottom of league ranked 28th overall

So we have your best possible Matchup being the one nobody sees in every forum i have looked no one not even ESPN or NFL network sees it being Texans vs Packers

all though texans lost 3 games out of 4 the last one again colts used coach being back on sidelines for motivation got them that win i think this time now with all that bullshit out of the way texans will play thier game as they have done most of year

win home game in a breeze

remember bengals played vs 2nd string of Ravens and it wasn't easy for them that rookie QB for Balty was driving bengals nuts

this is rematch of last years two teams with rookie QB's Texans vs Bengals

texans won huge then went on road and hung in as a 7.5 dog at Ravens but lost the game

So Texans have a fairly easy road into bowl 1 home game then two roads @ Patriots then @ Broncos and yes Manning was great but when your divison consist of Chargers, Raiders Chiefs LOL you get the picture

Patriots same thing gifted 6 wins and dont use that game vs Texans no team would win or even come close on that mid season 3 trip rodeo in 17 days.

MY analysis

I have to look deeper into this system but it does figure. If I can pull up past few super bowl years to do a comparison but who in heel keeps those stats from whole season saved?

Yahoo sports i know has most games of all teams but some you get file not found then have to go direct to teams site.



:0003

 

[Mr. Poon]

you can get the yardage and turnover stats from espn going back 10 years.

Interesting take, however SOS needs to be considered, its mentioned some but can thwart some of those stats. For instance everyone in Houston's division (6 games) is ranked in the bottom 7 of total defense. Baltimore's division had two in the top 6.

 

[Scrapman]

OK got the whole thing now

OK got the whole thing now

The hank strahams has fallen off because he set points based on teams catergories

but it's good a model to use in some aspects of the big game

Here is what is imporatnt as posted above your winning team Must have out gained all 16 foes by 35 yards or more per game

they also must have plus in TO's not zero a Plus must be there

The Team with highest ranking defense will win the superbowl



The team with better ATS record gets the cash 100% every year

if both teams are equal in that stat take the Dog to cover

it happened with cardinals +7 vs steelers

The team that gave up 19 points plus more than other team is a 100% loser

Example 10 games allowed 19- 40 points or more Hello Patriots

means this team is not good at all

only the saints were good that year because thier defense was a scoring defense also they beat you on both sides of the ball

and colts were a playoff fraud way below the 35 yards plus per game and all players gone from previous

Championship and HC was 1st year with team.

SO i'm double checking above stats found to make sure they are correct

focusing on teams with veteran QB's of course

I prefer a team that wins games like like this 24-10 17-3 21-12 as the texans have done

not teams that win games 45-7 then come out flatter than steamrolled snails next game

and lose 36-3
BBL with results this takes time

:0003

 

[hogman14]

Patriots Post BYE points allowed...

Week 10 31
Week 11 24
Week 12 19
Week 13 16
Week 14 14
Week 15 41
Week 16 13
Week 17 0

 

[Scrapman]

you can get the yardage and turnover stats from espn going back 10 years.

Interesting take, however SOS needs to be considered, its mentioned some but can thwart some of those stats. For instance everyone in Houston's division (6 games) is ranked in the bottom 7 of total defense. Baltimore's division had two in the top 6.

Correct sir Poon love your avatar too Chevy chase is one of my fav actors

SOS is very imporatnt so glaring was when seattle got in vs steelers

Bears vs colts OMG

Patriots vs Giants the 18-0 Patriots

many more years in superbowl history of teams who played on losers schedule got ears handed to them in the bowl

 

[hogman14]

tough call scrappy

most of the nfl sucks.

can't control who you play

afc championship could be 2 of the weaker schedules around...afc west produces the #1 pick overall, and could have been won with a .500 record, and the pats get to play in the boiler room that is the afc least

 

[Scrapman]

ok got Patriots done had to use NFL.com for couple of games not up at yahoo sports


PATRIOTS
@ Titans
First Downs 25 16
Total Yards 390 284 + 106 yards
Turnovers 0 2
Time of Possession 31:01 28:59
First Downs 25 16
Passing 12 13
Rushing 13 1
Penalty 0 2
Third Down Efficiency 6-12 5-14
Fourth Down Efficiency 0-0 1-2
Total Net Yards 390 284
Total Plays 67 61
Average Gain Per Play 5.8 4.7
Net Yards Rushing 162 20
Rushes 35 16
Average Per Rush 4.6 1.3
Net Yards Passing 228 264
Completions-Attempts 23-31 29-43
Yards Per Pass Play 7.1 5.9
Times Sacked 1 2
Yards Lost to Sacks 8 8
Had Intercepted 0 1
Punts 4 4
Average Punt 38.5 52.3
Penalties 3 3
Penalty Yards 20 30
Fumbles 0 1
Fumbles Lost 0 1
Time of Possession 31:01 28:59


vs cardinals ---Patriots plus 142 yards and LOST the game

First Downs 16 25
Total Yards 245 387
Turnovers 2 1
Time of Possession 28:19 31:41

@ Balty
---------------Patriots
First Downs 33 28
Total Yards 396 503--- - 107 yards
Turnovers 0 1
Time of Possession 31:03 28:57


@ Bills

First Downs 33 19
Total Yards 580 438------ plus 142 yards but notice bills 6

turnovers
Turnovers 2 6
Time of Possession 30:47 29:13

vs Broncos
----------------------Pats
First Downs 22 35
Total Yards 402 444 +42 yards
Turnovers 3 1
Time of Possession 24:11 35:49

@ Seat. ----PATS
First Downs 26 17
Total Yards 475 368 +107 yards LOST the game???
Turnovers 2 2
Time of Possession 34:00 26:00 8 mins more TOP????

you getting the picture now how bad this pats defense is?




vs Jets ....won by 3 in OT

----------------------Pats
First Downs 26 26
Total Yards 403 381 / - 22 yards
Turnovers 2 1
Time of Possession 35:49 31:43


fuck @ london vs rams page not available


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Passing Cmp Att Yds TDs +99 yards
T. Brady 23 35 304 4
Rushing Car Yds Avg TDs
S. Ridley 15 127 8.5 1
S. Vereen 7 22 3.1 1
Receiving Rec Yds Avg TDs
R. Gronkowski 8 146 18.2 2
D. Woodhead 5 56 11.2 0
ST. LOUIS RAMS
Passing Cmp Att Yds TDs
S. Bradford 22 30 205 1
Rushing Car Yds Avg TDs
D. Richardson 7 53 7.6 0
I. Pead 3 32 10.7 0
Receiving Rec Yds Avg TDs
C. Givens 3 63 21 1
B. Gibson 3 46 15.3 0

vs Bills


BUFFALO BILLS
Passing Cmp Att Yds TDs
R. Fitzpatrick 27 40 337 2
Rushing Car Yds Avg TDs
F. Jackson 16 80 5 2
C. Spiller 9 70 7.8 0
Receiving Rec Yds Avg TDs
St. Johnson 6 86 14.3 0
D. Jones 6 74 12.3 1
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Passing Cmp Att Yds TDs - 100 yards won game
T. Brady 23 38 237 2
Rushing Car Yds Avg TDs
S. Ridley 22 98 4.5 1
D. Woodhead 1 15 15 1
Receiving Rec Yds Avg TDs
W. Welker 6 74 12.3 0
D. Woodhead 4 46 11.5 1


@ Jets

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Passing Cmp Att Yds TDs + 22 yards won huge 49-19
T. Brady 18 28 323 3
Rushing Car Yds Avg TDs
S. Ridley 21 97 4.6 1
S. Vereen 10 42 4.2 0
Receiving Rec Yds Avg TDs
S. Vereen 2 91 45.5 1
W. Welker 7 71 10.1 1
NEW YORK JETS
Passing Cmp Att Yds TDs
M. Sanchez 26 36 301 1
Rushing Car Yds Avg TDs
S. Greene 14 71 5.1 0
B. Powell 12 40 3.3 1
Receiving Rec Yds Avg TDs
J. Kerley 7 86 12.3 0
D. Keller 5 64 12.8 1

@ Dolphins
Team Leaders
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Passing Cmp Att Yds TDs +52 yards Lost money -

8pts


T. Brady 24 40 238 1
Rushing Car Yds Avg TDs
S. Ridley 19 71 3.7 1
D. Woodhead 6 24 4 0
Receiving Rec Yds Avg TDs
W. Welker 12 103 8.6 1
A. Hernandez 8 97 12.1 0
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Passing Cmp Att Yds TDs
R. Tannehill 13 29 186 0
Rushing Car Yds Avg TDs
R. Bush 15 64 4.3 0
R. Tannehill 5 19 3.8 1
Receiving Rec Yds Avg TDs
B. Hartline 5 84 16.8 0
R. Matthews 1 28 28 0


vs Texans

First Downs 19 27
Total Yards 323 419 +96 yards
Turnovers 1 1
Time of Possession 29:11 30:49

vs 49ERS


First Downs 19 32
Total Yards 383 520 + 137 yards LOST the game??? 41-34
Turnovers 2 4 of course lost the TO battle
Time of Possession 30:13 29:47

@ jaguars - 14 points favorite

First Downs 23 22
Total Yards 349 436 -87 yards won game
Turnovers 2 3
Time of Possession 27:25 32:35

vs the We aint playing dolphins

First Downs 16 28
Total Yards 256 443 +187 yards
Turnovers 2 0
Time of Possession 24:22 35:38

defense worst of all teams in playoffs ranked 28th in league 10th vs the run 30th vs the pass same shit different year

 

[Scrapman]

Texans
vs Miami
First Downs 15 19
Total Yards 275 337 +62
Turnovers 4 0 +4
Time of Possession 25:16 34:44

@ Jaguars
First Downs 28 9
Total Yards 411 117 +294
Turnovers 0 1 +1 + 4 = +5
Time of Possession 43:17 16:43
@ Broncos
First Downs 23 24
Total Yards 436 375 +61
Turnovers 2 1 +1 +5 = +6
Time of Possession 31:40 28:20

vs Titans

First Downs 17 16
Total Yards 325 297 - 28 yds
Turnovers 3 0 + 3 + 6 = +9
Time of Possession 27:34 32:26

@ Jets (lost B cushing for season)
First Downs 18 15
Total Yards 378 286 +92 yds
Turnovers 1 2 +1 +9 = +10
Time of Possession 35:16 24:44

got waxed
vs Packers
First Downs 25 23
Total Yards 427 321 - 106 yrds
Turnovers 0 3 - 3 10 - 3 = +7

Destroyed them
Vs Ravens
First Downs 12 27
Total Yards 176 420 +244 yds
Turnovers 2 0 +2 +7 = +9
Time of Possession 21:44 38:16

vs Bills (notice 3 teams in Patriots div way differnt results margin of victory and points allowed Miami Jets Bills )

First Downs 17 21
Total Yards 308 374 +66 yrds
Turnovers 1 0 =1 +9 = +10
Time of Possession 25:57 34:03
Time of Possession 27:59 32:01

@ Bears Won 13- 7
First Downs 13 8
Total Yards 215 249 - 34 yds
Turnovers 2 4 +2 =10 = +12
Time of Possession 31:08 28:52

vs Jags

First Downs 17 39
Total Yards 458 640 +182
Turnovers 1 3 -2 +12 = +10
Time of Possession 31:19 41:40

@ lions Won in OT
First Downs 26 29
Total Yards 501 525 - 24 yrds
Turnovers 1 1 =0 +10

@ Titans Won 24-10
First Downs 16 17
Total Yards 332 354 - 22 yds
Turnovers 0 6 +6 +10 = +16
Time of Possession 33:48 26:12

@ Patriots of course any team in this spot would get croaked even .500 team would beat them


lost 14 -42

First Downs 19 27
Total Yards 323 419 - 96 yards
Turnovers 1 1 =0 +16
Time of Possession 29:11 30:49

vs Colts Won 29-17 (notice the bounce back margin - 22.5 ATS points to +2 points ATS = 24.5 points movement from negative to positive 36 points s/u )

First Downs 19 23
Total Yards 272 417 +145 yds
Turnovers 1 0 +1 = +17
Time of Possession 26:54 33:06

now you will see why they lost at home vs vikings because of that huge swing above the DD loss to a Win

vs Vikings Lost 23 -6

First Downs 22 11
Total Yards 345 187 - 158
Turnovers 1 2 - 1 = +16
Time of Possession 34:46 25:14

@ colts Lost 28-16 (again that Coach strong BS his 1st game back on sidelines with team got them the win and Vegas adds the Hook - 6 1/2 to texans to make sure you Lost lol)

First Downs 19 19
Total Yards 352 265 +87 yrads
Turnovers 2 0 - 2 +16 = +14
Time of Possession 28:51 31:09

ok totals are +765 yards divided by 16 games = +47.81 ypg plus 14 in to's a # 4 ranked offense with a # 6 ranked defense is solid superbowl contender )

Yes Patsies are plus in both catergories but defense wins champions baby and Pats still aint got it ranked 27th over all just about any team they played scored 3 td's or more against them and you know the record of super bowl losers none returned next year except the bills


offense rankings 5th 3rd rushing 10th passing defense rankings 6th 4th stopping the run 10th stopping the pass scoring defense 9th patriots scoring defense 11th

 

[Scrapman]

Broncos not wasting space here they are bad real bad lowest ypg of all teams in playoffs no wheres near the minimum of +35 ypg and - 2 in turnovers = EXIT stage left in Playoffs

holy shit i just realized something if Ravens Beat Broncos and Texans Beat Patsies Texans are Home in Finals

Falcons will not be at Bowl so i'm not wasting space on them either weakest schedule of all teams horrible defense ranked 21st

weak ass schedulle full of losers from last year and this year

wouldn't be surprised they lose to Seahawks but then again seahawks were fortunate to play against a limpy QB with shit for Brains HC

Next team i do is 49ers

 

[hogman14]

scrapman,

what do you chalk up the texans losing 3/4 to to close the season up to?

 

[Scrapman]

49ers

totals are +1072 div. by 16 games =

+67 YPG +8 in To's

offense rankings

11th 7th rushing but 31st passing

Defense rankings (remember SOS)

3rd 9th stopping the run but 21st stopping the pass

huge negative is the Rookie QB 1st year in playoffs sorry 49ers fans cheer on final game of year Packers are healthy and rolling and will exact revenge or that week 1 loss >

besides dosent Packers own 49ers in Playoffs ?

one time 49ers beat them with Mariucci but Falcons got in that year

 

[Scrapman]

scrapman,

what do you chalk up the texans losing 3/4 to to close the season up to?

yes i know thats bad but it was due to massive swings from negative losses to a plus win

and that friggin motivation by Colts having HC on sidelines for 1st time Got Colts the win

that game was 1 point margin at half colts up 17-16

still we shall hoodie lol I presume your a pats fan (i'am too ever since Brady & Bill B took over)

Kudos to Pats if they win this game but i cannot see Ravens in the Bowl sorry just using weak div of Pats as my main negative and a very soft schedule plus 27th ranked defense just dosen't cut it

 

[Dr. Fade]

FYI- Kapernik is not a rookie

 

[Scrapman]

PACKERS totals

bad news

+360 yards divide by 16 = +22.5 YPG 12.5 ypg below the min of 35

+7 in turnovers Good

Offense rankings 14th 16th rushing 17th passing

Defense rankings 11th 14thh stopping run
19th stopping pass

Scoring defense ranked 10th

 

[Scrapman]

FYI- Kapernik is not a rookie

he is 1st year rookie i know he was there last year but didnt play season lol stop it will ya!

HE is a Rookie who did not start season and HE will not lead his team to the Superbowl.

 

[Amethyest]

hmm gonna look into this a bit further, thanks for the post :0008 :toast:

yes IE, we seen yours as well :toast:

 

[shablazin10965]

So who you taking this week

Packers, ravens, falcons, & texans?

 

[Scrapman]

So who you taking this week

Packers, ravens, falcons, & texans?

plftttttttttttttttttttttttttttt

you really think i'm telling you who i'm betting on

have two freinds Tom and Frank who i bet every week they pick 5 games i pick 5 games whoever has more wins gets the whole $100 pot

SO far in playoffs we are tied 1- 1

i had Cincy +4 1/2 L and Packers - 9 W

they had Colts +7 Lost and Seahwks W

so i guarantee this week i go 2-0
hope they screw up again

 

[shablazin10965]

I don't understand the point of this thread you have bashed every team and haven't made a single pick

 

[bigdaddy19]

:0002 :0002 :0002 :shrug: :shrug: :shrug: :shrug: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :0003 :0003 :moon: :moon: :moon: :moon: :moon: :lol: :lol: :lol: :0002 :0002 :0002 :142smilie :142smilie :142smilie