Well, I have a little extra time on my hands waiting for a game that they refuse to play until I?ve already packed my lunch and laid out my clothes for the return to work early on Monday morning, (groan) so I?ve been crunching the numbers, looking at all the games that the Patsies and E-Gals played during the year vs. teams that were considered ?good defensively?. (Jets, Skins, Ravens, Pitts, etc)
For me, everything comes up UNDER!
First, the game total of 47.5 is way off. These two teams only had totals set that high a 2-3 times each the whole year, and that was against the likes of weak defensive teams like StL, Minny, GB, and KC. In all of the games that they played vs. good ?D? teams, (or even average ?D? teams) the total was set anywhere from 34 to 44. (roughly). A huge numbers overlay. Plus we have two teams that haven?t played in 2 weeks and a grass field that has been rained on all week. Now of course the condition of the field will still be good I?m sure, so I?m not basing any bets on or against the field. That said, it?s not like we?re playing in a dome here either. The field could get a little messy by the 4th. And if one team is ahead by 10 or more, you?ll see run-run-run in the late stages. Even without all that, the number is still very inflated. Put this game in NE or Philly during the season or even the playoffs and what number do you come up with? (38-41 in good weather maybe?) Advantage UNDER 47.5
Next, the quarter lines: Although each team tends to have excellently scripted opening drives, the numbers show that the combined scoring for each team in the 1st quarter is usually relatively low. You gotta figure if each team has success moving the ball, then tries a FG or a punt, the first 2-3 drives could take up ? of the quarter. And with two good ?D? teams after a two week layoff (and especially with the Pats battling a bad practice field all week, taking it easy at times on the sloppy turf to avoid injuries), these teams may be a bit rusty on ?O?. However, even though I like the 1st qtr under, I feel that 7.5 isn?t enough of an advantage to put my 12/10 juice on (local bookie). Pass
Now, as many of my fellow gambling pals know, I ALWAYS take the 3rd Qtr under in the SB. With the long halftime show, combined with the halftime locker room defensive adjustments, it?s almost like starting a brand new game. Teams often come out lethargic and spar defensively until one team finally breaks through. Then as the 3rd winds down to the 4th, all hell starts to break loose again as each team gets back in rhythm for crunch time. I don?t ?always? win on this one, but at o/u 10.5, it?s always a good bet, and better than the 7.5 you get in the first qtr. (this of course assumes that one team isn?t down by say 17 or 24 at the half!) 3rd Qtr under 10.5
Now, if you just HAVE to play overs, then from what I see, the best bets are the 2nd and 4th qtrs, where it seems that both teams gear up, especially the 4th as good teams such as these are used to wearing out the opponent's "D" and really turning it on in crunch time. Although I wouldn?t personally touch the line of 14.5 myself, I wouldn?t be surprised to see 17+ scored in the 2nd and/or 4th. (and last year?s SB, with two teams supposedly considered good on ?D?, both the 1st and 3rd were scoreless, and then the teams went nuts in the 2nd and 4th, go figure) But again, I'll pass on the overs this year
On the half lines of o/u 24, I see a slight advantage of ? point by taking under on both rather than the game total of 47.5. However, if one half goes way under and the other over, it just takes juice away from my game total wager. Sooo, going with my gambling gut, I feel that the 1st half is more likely to stay under 24 than the second. If the game is tight and conservative in the first half, then the 4th qtr has a chance to be wild. I wouldn?t be surprised to see 0-10 points scored in the 3rd, then 17 ? 24 in the 4th. I expect a close, tight game for a while, but I also wouldn?t be surprised to see the game end around 27-20 Pats by the time the confetti rains down.
So for me, basically this is what it comes down to?
Under 24: 1st half (2-units)
Under 10.5: 3rd Qtr (2-units)
Under 47.5: game total (2-units)
(oh, and for a little extra, I like the E-Gals to score less than 20.5. I expect the Pats to come out take a page out of SB XXXVI against the Rams and nail TO at the line every time he lines up to throw off his routes and make him limp through the game, making him a non-factor. Then they can concentrate on the other receivers and try to neutralize Westbrook similar to what they did to Marshal Faulk. That?ll leave it all up to McNabb. Can McNabb shine? Well we?ll see. But for the Eagles to win, they BETTER keep the Pats under 21, which in that case, it?s even better for the unders)
Now, the only way I see that I can get creamed here is if there?s a one-sided blowout. It?s certainly possible, and history shows that the 2-week layoff is prone to such. (of course one team may win by double digits, but that?s not necessarily a blowout). But with these two teams, I just feel the talent on both sides is close enough to allow the game to go back and forth long enough to bring me a at least a little cash?
Hope this helps. Comments?
For me, everything comes up UNDER!
First, the game total of 47.5 is way off. These two teams only had totals set that high a 2-3 times each the whole year, and that was against the likes of weak defensive teams like StL, Minny, GB, and KC. In all of the games that they played vs. good ?D? teams, (or even average ?D? teams) the total was set anywhere from 34 to 44. (roughly). A huge numbers overlay. Plus we have two teams that haven?t played in 2 weeks and a grass field that has been rained on all week. Now of course the condition of the field will still be good I?m sure, so I?m not basing any bets on or against the field. That said, it?s not like we?re playing in a dome here either. The field could get a little messy by the 4th. And if one team is ahead by 10 or more, you?ll see run-run-run in the late stages. Even without all that, the number is still very inflated. Put this game in NE or Philly during the season or even the playoffs and what number do you come up with? (38-41 in good weather maybe?) Advantage UNDER 47.5
Next, the quarter lines: Although each team tends to have excellently scripted opening drives, the numbers show that the combined scoring for each team in the 1st quarter is usually relatively low. You gotta figure if each team has success moving the ball, then tries a FG or a punt, the first 2-3 drives could take up ? of the quarter. And with two good ?D? teams after a two week layoff (and especially with the Pats battling a bad practice field all week, taking it easy at times on the sloppy turf to avoid injuries), these teams may be a bit rusty on ?O?. However, even though I like the 1st qtr under, I feel that 7.5 isn?t enough of an advantage to put my 12/10 juice on (local bookie). Pass
Now, as many of my fellow gambling pals know, I ALWAYS take the 3rd Qtr under in the SB. With the long halftime show, combined with the halftime locker room defensive adjustments, it?s almost like starting a brand new game. Teams often come out lethargic and spar defensively until one team finally breaks through. Then as the 3rd winds down to the 4th, all hell starts to break loose again as each team gets back in rhythm for crunch time. I don?t ?always? win on this one, but at o/u 10.5, it?s always a good bet, and better than the 7.5 you get in the first qtr. (this of course assumes that one team isn?t down by say 17 or 24 at the half!) 3rd Qtr under 10.5
Now, if you just HAVE to play overs, then from what I see, the best bets are the 2nd and 4th qtrs, where it seems that both teams gear up, especially the 4th as good teams such as these are used to wearing out the opponent's "D" and really turning it on in crunch time. Although I wouldn?t personally touch the line of 14.5 myself, I wouldn?t be surprised to see 17+ scored in the 2nd and/or 4th. (and last year?s SB, with two teams supposedly considered good on ?D?, both the 1st and 3rd were scoreless, and then the teams went nuts in the 2nd and 4th, go figure) But again, I'll pass on the overs this year
On the half lines of o/u 24, I see a slight advantage of ? point by taking under on both rather than the game total of 47.5. However, if one half goes way under and the other over, it just takes juice away from my game total wager. Sooo, going with my gambling gut, I feel that the 1st half is more likely to stay under 24 than the second. If the game is tight and conservative in the first half, then the 4th qtr has a chance to be wild. I wouldn?t be surprised to see 0-10 points scored in the 3rd, then 17 ? 24 in the 4th. I expect a close, tight game for a while, but I also wouldn?t be surprised to see the game end around 27-20 Pats by the time the confetti rains down.
So for me, basically this is what it comes down to?
Under 24: 1st half (2-units)
Under 10.5: 3rd Qtr (2-units)
Under 47.5: game total (2-units)
(oh, and for a little extra, I like the E-Gals to score less than 20.5. I expect the Pats to come out take a page out of SB XXXVI against the Rams and nail TO at the line every time he lines up to throw off his routes and make him limp through the game, making him a non-factor. Then they can concentrate on the other receivers and try to neutralize Westbrook similar to what they did to Marshal Faulk. That?ll leave it all up to McNabb. Can McNabb shine? Well we?ll see. But for the Eagles to win, they BETTER keep the Pats under 21, which in that case, it?s even better for the unders)
Now, the only way I see that I can get creamed here is if there?s a one-sided blowout. It?s certainly possible, and history shows that the 2-week layoff is prone to such. (of course one team may win by double digits, but that?s not necessarily a blowout). But with these two teams, I just feel the talent on both sides is close enough to allow the game to go back and forth long enough to bring me a at least a little cash?
Hope this helps. Comments?
