I was just re-reading Mike Lee's "Betting the Bases", arguably one of the best, if not best, books on betting baseball. He addresses one of the most talked about theories/misconceptions: the sweep game theory:
"It is obvious that a streaking club gathers a certain amount of momentum. If it wins one game, the players are positively charged to win a second and vice versa. So, if we embrace a losing home club in the sweep situation, would we not be going against the very concept that has worked well for us? (current form) We can now form one very solid conclusion; It is far more difficult to anticipate a streak (reversal of form) than go along with one. In other words, to predict the home team to win its final game simply because it needs to do so is not good enough. We are neglecting that important handicapping factor--current form.
Take a look at what happens to a club in this sweep game at home situation. First, we know nothing is going right for the team, the fans are getting impatient, some are booing at every opportunity, the manager is feeling the pressure as he needs a win to impress the owner and the visiting team is playing more relaxed than ever. This situation is magnified further if the home club is a pennant contender. The average bettor looks at that situation as an absolute lock. As you can see, the results over 5 years seems to prove otherwise:
wins: 171 losses: 175 %: 49% avg lay price: -115 profit/loss:
-3025 (based on $100 unit).
-Betting on the club in danger of losing a 3 game series at home does not show a profit in the long run. In fact, it shows a substantial loss.
-Pennant contenders do not show a profit in this situation either.
-In a 4 game series, there is a small profit in wagering on the club in danger of being swept, but these plays are few and far between.
-In a 3 game series, wager AGAINST the club in danger of being swept if they are the favorite.
"It is obvious that a streaking club gathers a certain amount of momentum. If it wins one game, the players are positively charged to win a second and vice versa. So, if we embrace a losing home club in the sweep situation, would we not be going against the very concept that has worked well for us? (current form) We can now form one very solid conclusion; It is far more difficult to anticipate a streak (reversal of form) than go along with one. In other words, to predict the home team to win its final game simply because it needs to do so is not good enough. We are neglecting that important handicapping factor--current form.
Take a look at what happens to a club in this sweep game at home situation. First, we know nothing is going right for the team, the fans are getting impatient, some are booing at every opportunity, the manager is feeling the pressure as he needs a win to impress the owner and the visiting team is playing more relaxed than ever. This situation is magnified further if the home club is a pennant contender. The average bettor looks at that situation as an absolute lock. As you can see, the results over 5 years seems to prove otherwise:
wins: 171 losses: 175 %: 49% avg lay price: -115 profit/loss:
-3025 (based on $100 unit).
-Betting on the club in danger of losing a 3 game series at home does not show a profit in the long run. In fact, it shows a substantial loss.
-Pennant contenders do not show a profit in this situation either.
-In a 4 game series, there is a small profit in wagering on the club in danger of being swept, but these plays are few and far between.
-In a 3 game series, wager AGAINST the club in danger of being swept if they are the favorite.
