I needed that. I'll have to save my 7-team parlay story for later (no...didn't hit it thanks to Damaso Marte's 9th), but I get an extra 
for hopping on a late Cubs/Padres under, as soon as I found out that Jerry under-Meals-ticket was behind the plate.
7 out of 7 70% calls were winners yesterday (5 hit runline). That's scary.
My totals system needs work -- favors the unders.
Finally ended my POD losing streak.
------------------------------------------
Keeping it short (I think/plan/dream) for now. May add later.
--------------------------------------------
braves 63% (49 runline)
--Maddux rocks vs Brewers
--braves -200 is cruel (PV-4)
--considering under 9 -105
Astros 70 (56)
--Heilman unimpressive and Miller not dominating this year
--Mets bats hotter than Astros right now
--price a joke; would try Mets but Heilman basically stinks
--huge edge to Astros BP
--passing on the over 9.5 temptation
Cards 55 (68)
--two hot rookies starting here
--don't be fooled by Cards .208 last 10 vs lefties -- that is vs ZERO starters; they slug considerably higher vs lefties, and definately hit better at home
--Marlins OPS considerably higher on road, but they've done most damage vs lefties
--ump Eddings is a solid under lean
--considering under 8 -115
--Cards runline actually looks to have value, but why should I lay the -150 when I can get anti-vig at home
PLAYING:
Cards +113 (PV+8)
1/1.13
Rockies 54
--Duckworth has shown signs of life lately
--Tsao still majorly unpredictable right now, and Rockies pen is pretty poor
--price looks about right; crapshoot total looks a bit low at 12
D'Backs 78 (65)
--very hot Schilling has had little trouble with Expos in past
--tough match here for the semi-slumping Day, facing a D'Backs team that looks to get it's hitting stride back during this new homestand
--Expos greatly prefer facing lefties this year, even more so since the all-star break
--ump Nelson a decent under play, but I see little value at 7.5 -115 (my system says 58% (PV+4), but it's a little under-heavy)
--believe it or not, I think the moneyline has value (PV+7 at -240 if 78%)
PLAYING:
D'Backs -1.5 -120 (PV+10)
2.4/2
cubs 57
--both starters have done decent work vs opponent
--Wood is tough to figure - I have this goofy theory about him requiring a large-K-zone ump to truly dominate, but I haven't got the numbers (yet) to back it up; he has still been dominating lately, as K-man and low-whip-boy, but a couple of tough calls -- i.e. walks -- and he seems to get really flustered and have a bad inning
--ump Vanover looks pretty even, slight under-lean (13-7 under this year), and his K% the past couple of seasons looks high enough to kill my theory if Wood brain-cramps again; Vanover has done two Wood games, BOTH IN '98, both @Wrigley, and Wood's Cubs won 8-1 over Nomo &Dodgers, and then 5-1 over Marlins @L.Hernandez
--Eaton has decent stuff, and Cubs still aren't hitting, righties especially, so I like the under 7 ... somebody slap me ... pending
Dodgers 58
--both starters on the plus-side vs opponents, but Perez is ridiculously inconsistent, while Acevedo is one of the few positive stories with the Reds right now
--Dodgers large BP edge, but Reds BP has done quite well lately, despite recent salary dumps
--ump Wally Bell a bit of an under lean
--mostly based on the offense, this one looks under, but I can't bring myself to play under 7 in this matchup; poor offenses (Reds in particular vs lefties, Dodgers in particular vs righties, and fairly strong pitching, along with a small bonus from Bell, spat out under 7 for 59%, giving me PV+10 on the +105 ... just doesn't sound right to me, and this is why I need to do surgery on the totals system ... pending
Giants 71 (57)
--Fogg is still in one -- very cold -- and nothing special in his one start @Pac Bell last year (5.1, 12hit, 4BB, 4K, 4er, no decision)
--Ponson was so-so near the end with O's, has solid numbers on the year, and faces Pirates for first time
--decent offensive edge to Giants, but they still have their trouble with righties -- same thing as last year when they were also much more productive vs lefties
--large BP edge to Giants, but I still don't really trust closer Worrel (well, maybe a little more than Phillies 'what bullpen-by-committee-?!?!' ex-closer Mesa ... 'bout time they made THAT move ... what was his era, like 5?)
--small (very) value on the runline here - pending
Anybody know how to catch a squirrel?
grrr...I'll give it some thought (not) as I take a coffee break.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, I got taken away when the sun went down
And I stood there in my own mind the way a stranger prowls around
I'm walking in darkness
I can see one thing is right
Got lotsa company when I walk in the night
(Goss-Masters of Reality-self-titled-Sleep Walkin')
for hopping on a late Cubs/Padres under, as soon as I found out that Jerry under-Meals-ticket was behind the plate.7 out of 7 70% calls were winners yesterday (5 hit runline). That's scary.
My totals system needs work -- favors the unders.
Finally ended my POD losing streak.
------------------------------------------
Keeping it short (I think/plan/dream) for now. May add later.
--------------------------------------------
braves 63% (49 runline)
--Maddux rocks vs Brewers
--braves -200 is cruel (PV-4)
--considering under 9 -105
Astros 70 (56)
--Heilman unimpressive and Miller not dominating this year
--Mets bats hotter than Astros right now
--price a joke; would try Mets but Heilman basically stinks
--huge edge to Astros BP
--passing on the over 9.5 temptation
Cards 55 (68)
--two hot rookies starting here
--don't be fooled by Cards .208 last 10 vs lefties -- that is vs ZERO starters; they slug considerably higher vs lefties, and definately hit better at home
--Marlins OPS considerably higher on road, but they've done most damage vs lefties
--ump Eddings is a solid under lean
--considering under 8 -115
--Cards runline actually looks to have value, but why should I lay the -150 when I can get anti-vig at home
PLAYING:
Cards +113 (PV+8)
1/1.13
Rockies 54
--Duckworth has shown signs of life lately
--Tsao still majorly unpredictable right now, and Rockies pen is pretty poor
--price looks about right; crapshoot total looks a bit low at 12
D'Backs 78 (65)
--very hot Schilling has had little trouble with Expos in past
--tough match here for the semi-slumping Day, facing a D'Backs team that looks to get it's hitting stride back during this new homestand
--Expos greatly prefer facing lefties this year, even more so since the all-star break
--ump Nelson a decent under play, but I see little value at 7.5 -115 (my system says 58% (PV+4), but it's a little under-heavy)
--believe it or not, I think the moneyline has value (PV+7 at -240 if 78%)
PLAYING:
D'Backs -1.5 -120 (PV+10)
2.4/2
cubs 57
--both starters have done decent work vs opponent
--Wood is tough to figure - I have this goofy theory about him requiring a large-K-zone ump to truly dominate, but I haven't got the numbers (yet) to back it up; he has still been dominating lately, as K-man and low-whip-boy, but a couple of tough calls -- i.e. walks -- and he seems to get really flustered and have a bad inning
--ump Vanover looks pretty even, slight under-lean (13-7 under this year), and his K% the past couple of seasons looks high enough to kill my theory if Wood brain-cramps again; Vanover has done two Wood games, BOTH IN '98, both @Wrigley, and Wood's Cubs won 8-1 over Nomo &Dodgers, and then 5-1 over Marlins @L.Hernandez
--Eaton has decent stuff, and Cubs still aren't hitting, righties especially, so I like the under 7 ... somebody slap me ... pending
Dodgers 58
--both starters on the plus-side vs opponents, but Perez is ridiculously inconsistent, while Acevedo is one of the few positive stories with the Reds right now
--Dodgers large BP edge, but Reds BP has done quite well lately, despite recent salary dumps
--ump Wally Bell a bit of an under lean
--mostly based on the offense, this one looks under, but I can't bring myself to play under 7 in this matchup; poor offenses (Reds in particular vs lefties, Dodgers in particular vs righties, and fairly strong pitching, along with a small bonus from Bell, spat out under 7 for 59%, giving me PV+10 on the +105 ... just doesn't sound right to me, and this is why I need to do surgery on the totals system ... pending
Giants 71 (57)
--Fogg is still in one -- very cold -- and nothing special in his one start @Pac Bell last year (5.1, 12hit, 4BB, 4K, 4er, no decision)
--Ponson was so-so near the end with O's, has solid numbers on the year, and faces Pirates for first time
--decent offensive edge to Giants, but they still have their trouble with righties -- same thing as last year when they were also much more productive vs lefties
--large BP edge to Giants, but I still don't really trust closer Worrel (well, maybe a little more than Phillies 'what bullpen-by-committee-?!?!' ex-closer Mesa ... 'bout time they made THAT move ... what was his era, like 5?)
--small (very) value on the runline here - pending
Anybody know how to catch a squirrel?
grrr...I'll give it some thought (not) as I take a coffee break.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Well, I got taken away when the sun went down
And I stood there in my own mind the way a stranger prowls around
I'm walking in darkness
I can see one thing is right
Got lotsa company when I walk in the night
(Goss-Masters of Reality-self-titled-Sleep Walkin')
