Take this for what it's worth

[c20916]

From Tom Jackson on ESPN, Only 4 times in the history of the NFL have both teams that were in the Super Bowl the previous year, lost on the opening week of the NFL. With the St. Louis loss yesterday, based on history NE should win, but then again an expansion team hadn't won it's opening game sine 1941, and the Texans won, so just a little bit of info.

 

[NuttyGambler]

Actually

Actually

I think it was the Vikings in the early 60s. Maybe 61

 

[acehistr8]

Since 1990, the SB Champ is 8-4 straight up in Week 1 the following season. Since the Pats are the underdogs, I think the s/u number is more important than the ATS number, which if I recall is much worse.

 

[c20916]

You're right it was '61 I was going to put 41 years instead I put a combo of 1961 and 41 years, hence the 1941

 

[GM]

Re: Take this for what it's worth

...With the St. Louis loss yesterday, based on history NE should win...

I'd keep in mind that St Louis' loss yesterday in Denver will not affect this game in any way. The two are separate, unrelated events. I think it's dangerous to make decisions based on this way of thinking. Just my opinion though.

I'm on NE anyways.

 

[acehistr8]

Re: Re: Take this for what it's worth

Re: Re: Take this for what it's worth

I'd keep in mind that St Louis' loss yesterday in Denver will not affect this game in any way. The two are separate, unrelated events. I think it's dangerous to make decisions based on this way of thinking.

Great point, thats why I tend to think the stat about the defending champs is a little more relevant.

 

[c20916]

True, just b/c St. Louis lost, does not mean NE will win, but the stat is that both Super Bowl teams have lost their opening games only 4 times since the inception of the Super Bowl. So based on past history one would think NE would win.

I am not using this as a handicapping tool, just a little bit of info, like the subject said Take it for what's worth. I just thought it was an interesting stat I would throw out there. :shrug:

 

[GM]

It's actually not that surprising a stat. There have been something like 35 Superbowls? So...the next season, there are 4 possible combinations of outcomes for these two teams in their first game.

Both Win
Team A wins, Team B loses
Team B wins, Team A loses
Both Lose

Assuming total randomness, each combination has an equal chance of happening. So that means in 35 years it should happen 9 times.

But it's not totally random. The teams that made the SB last year should still be above-avearge teams (unless they've had a total house cleaning). Odds that at least one of them can pull off a SU win in Game 1 against any given team would be pretty good. So 4 times in 35 years sounds about normal to me. If anything, I'd say we're due for a 5th (though that's not what I want tonight).