Taking Illinois over Arizona

Scott4USC

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Sep 11, 2002
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Illinois ML for good size wager for my standards.

$228 to win $100 Illinois ML over Arizona!

Illinois

4 consistent players

Brown
Head
Williams
Augustine

3/4 are guards and I put a lot of value in guard play in NCAA hoops. Augustine is the Illinois big man and he has been on a terror the last 3+ weeks. Brown also has snapped out of his shooting slump entering this NCAA tourney.

Arizona

2 consistent players

Stoudamire
Frye

So with Illinois I am getting a +2 advantage in terms of # of consistent players. I really like that. What I don't like is AZ prob. has the 2 BEST players in the game.

As for defense, I give advantage to Illinois but AZ has been playing solid defense as well. Offensively it might be a wash but Illinois has more consistent explosive weapons. AZ has the best offensive player in Salim but he might be somewhat affected by the tough Ill. defense. Head took out UWM best and current hot shooter last game despite having sore hammy. VERY IMPRESSIVE! I wouldn't be surprised if Salim struggles today. Salim could very well have off night shooting or be affected by the tough defense of Illinois. But even if Salim goes off AND Frye going off, I still think Illinois wins this game.

AZ likes to play 1-3-1 zone defense and Illinois with 3 superstar guards will carve it up. Plus Illinois has Augustine down low.

Remember, 4 consistent great players for Illiinois vs 2 consistent great players for AZ. That is the difference in addition to Illinois being the better defensive team.

Lastly, you gotta respect Illinois even more now that 3 BIG TEN teams reached the ELITE 8!!!! :clap:

I guess my Illinois future bet wasn't enough action for me and I needed to put $$$ on Illinois ML. I think there is value in Illinois ML even though its slightly above -200.

BTW, I hope WVU beats UL so Illinois has an easier time reaching the finals AFTER they beat AZ! :)
 
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Nickelback

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GL Scott. . .

Obviously I hope you are wrong but logically its a good play when you're on a team that has lost only one game all season long.
 

Sun Tzu

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You call that a good size wager to win a regional final when you claim have $2600 on them to win the whole tournament?
 

Scott4USC

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Sep 11, 2002
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Sun Tzu said:
You call that a good size wager to win a regional final when you claim have $2600 on them to win the whole tournament?

Yep!

My normal bets are $10-$200. Sometimes I bet $500 plays and sometimes $1000+ plays. Depends how MUCH I like a team/game. But "normal" wagers are between $10-$200. So risking $228 to win $100 is a good size wager for me. I make my bread and butter on big wagers and I usually break even or have negative on small wagers.
 
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