Cincinnati +160
The Reds are a top 5 team v LHP which they draw a good one tonight in Hyun-Jin Ryu, but I'm not sure his recent form is all that great. His WHIP of 1.39 in his last three games isn't all that awful, but those games are against the Mets, Arizona and San Diego. Other than Arizona it doesn't take a very good LHP to keep those runners off base.
Ryu only has one win in his last 7 starts and that was against San Diego who is bottom third against LHP. Again, the Reds are a top 5 team against LHP and the Reds are at home in this one.
Castillo goes for the Reds and, yes, the Dodgers hit RHP pretty well, top 5 in MLB as a matter of fact. Castillo's recent form is not all that bad, though, and I find good pitching to beat good hitting most days. Castillo is 2-2 in his last four starts beating STL and San Francisco and losing to the Cubs along with San Diego. Normally if you get beat by San Diego I'm willing to write you off pretty quickly, but he only gave up 2 earned runs in a 6-2 loss, his defense and bullpen let him down as he gave up 5 hits across 5 innings with 7 strikeouts. His WHIP in the last three gams is a flat 1.00 with it being 1.10 season long at home.
I'm not going to try and convince anyone we are getting the better team or even the better pitcher in the grand scheme of things, but I think we are getting a pitcher in at least a little better form than his mound opponent and pitching for a team that hits LHP pretty well. In this case I think the plus 60 cents is well worth the gamble.
I'll take the Reds in this one.
The Reds are a top 5 team v LHP which they draw a good one tonight in Hyun-Jin Ryu, but I'm not sure his recent form is all that great. His WHIP of 1.39 in his last three games isn't all that awful, but those games are against the Mets, Arizona and San Diego. Other than Arizona it doesn't take a very good LHP to keep those runners off base.
Ryu only has one win in his last 7 starts and that was against San Diego who is bottom third against LHP. Again, the Reds are a top 5 team against LHP and the Reds are at home in this one.
Castillo goes for the Reds and, yes, the Dodgers hit RHP pretty well, top 5 in MLB as a matter of fact. Castillo's recent form is not all that bad, though, and I find good pitching to beat good hitting most days. Castillo is 2-2 in his last four starts beating STL and San Francisco and losing to the Cubs along with San Diego. Normally if you get beat by San Diego I'm willing to write you off pretty quickly, but he only gave up 2 earned runs in a 6-2 loss, his defense and bullpen let him down as he gave up 5 hits across 5 innings with 7 strikeouts. His WHIP in the last three gams is a flat 1.00 with it being 1.10 season long at home.
I'm not going to try and convince anyone we are getting the better team or even the better pitcher in the grand scheme of things, but I think we are getting a pitcher in at least a little better form than his mound opponent and pitching for a team that hits LHP pretty well. In this case I think the plus 60 cents is well worth the gamble.
I'll take the Reds in this one.
