Talladega

[Motorcat]

Concerning Burton - Ragan

Better line late - please.

Burton's car was the class of the field most of the day despite the electrical issue.

Even laps down he was racing up front and leading at times. He almost raced his way back on one of those laps and probably would have had he not been in line for the lucky dog.

Thats the same chassis he ran up front with at Daytona and ran strong last year at Tally. Luck pick - not if a little scouting was done before hand.

Daytona bores me to no end but there is something about Tally that will make me pull up a chair and watch. Give me Tally or a short track anyday over one of those mile and a half tri-ovals.

California,Kansas etc all equal good long naps.

They only run the paltes 4x all year - why all the crying ?

 

[Motorcat]

Oh and the final proof of luck in a plate race:

BRAD KESELOWSKI WON THE RACE!!!!!!!!!

He qualified strong and he had some of the best practice times before they qualified.

Sure it was a long shot but its not like it was impossible based on his pre-race efforts.

You might have an argument if you said Morgan Shepard or some other retread that had no car behind him to begin with but that was a damn strong car off the truck.

 

[kegray1]

He qualified strong and he had some of the best practice times before they qualified.

Sure it was a long shot but its not like it was impossible based on his pre-race efforts.

So I guess Keselowski will be a factor the rest of this race season now that his team has figured it out.:shrug:

Don't think so. Bottom line is a plate race is THE ONLY CHANCE for a car like his to win with the small exception of winning a race on luck pit strategy late in a race.

As for Burton being better than Ragan well yes he has been better all season though. The point of luck was ANY other type race down 3 laps and your day is done. And Ragan was towards the front many times during the day and was two cars back of Burton so the right line would have shot him past Burton. That is Talladega.

And everybody unloads off the Track at Talladega with a strong car. Its called plate racing. The guys that stay out of trouble and finish the race are 3 seconds off the lead at most.

Regan Smith almost won this race last year. What does that tell you.

 

[kegray1]

And if you want to bring up practice which is ridiculous in a plate race because you dont know how many cars are out there to draft with at times then look at the final numbers:

Final practice:
Ragan was 8th
Keselowski was 22nd
Burton was 27th

 

[Motorcat]

No where did I say Keselowski was going to be a factor the rest of the season - dude, don't even try misrepresent what I am posting and counter with an invalid argument.

I'm just saying plate racing is not entirely based on the amount of luck you present it to be.

Matter of fact I'm not even going to continue - you have your mind made up and nothing I present is even going to sway you one bit.

I won my bet and there was hardly a doubt in about it when I made it ..... yes , even at luck filled Tally.

:roll:

 

[kegray1]

I agree Burton was the play on paper over Ragan and I agree that there are skilled plate racers out there(Jr,Stewart to name a few).

I am just saying that things can more than go your way at a plate race even if you don't have a week in and week out top 10 car team if you are in the right place at the right time..

Two prime examples are Regan Smith and now Keselowski. Hamlin could push anyone to the front on Sunday but he was nowhere to be seen on the last lap becaue he got sucked back.
Kurt Busch was running out front with no rear and a damaged front.
Not arguing with you, as I agree that skilled drivers exist in plate races,but being in the right place is the biggest factor.
Good to have another Nascar capper in here my friend.
Talk to ya for Richmond.

 

[grinin]

Sure what happens on the track at a plate race has a lot to do with luck. From being caught up in an accident not of your own making to being in the wrong line at the finish. This is what makes the variance on these wagers far higher.

There is still lots of value bets out there for plate races where if you took them 1000 times you would be ahead 550 times. Its just not as predictable for a good handicapper as other races where you might be ahead 600 times. That does not make them bad bets.

By the way my statement of its hard to argue with Brad Keselowski was being facetious. The whole point of betting win bets in restrictor plate races is to understand that anomalies happen FAR more frequently than with other types of racing.