tampa at boston

[pepin46]

nomo -200?

this one drew my attention right away. however, upon further inspection i find that albie lopez has a horrible record: after starting out the year with a 1.66 era in his first 5 games, and a 3-1 record to go along with it, he is now 0-9, last 10 games and era of 8.36, last 4 games 7.38, and a whopping average of 2 plus hits/bb per inning. actually his numbers are very steady, very predictable.

what is wrong here? is it that the whole league is on to his pitching patterns?

in any event, i cannot pull the trigger on tampa here, and neither will i lay down this type of wood, i don't care who is pitching.

the one play that sounds very appealing here is the o/u at 9.5.

nomo has been yielding an average of 4 er per game, albie 4-5 per 4 or 5 innings. that is 9 with about 7 innings left of relief work for both bullpens.

in addition, if tampa has a strong/weak suit, it is right handers in their favor and viceversa.

the over is the play here. predicted score, at the risk or making a fool of myself, 9-8 boston, mol.

pep

 

[cavs1234]

I would not lay this number, but the right play here is Boston, Tampa Bay sucks and never wins.....Boston is in the hunt and will win this game tonight....

 

[Investment Executive]

pepin...was very close to adding this to my shop tonight...

nomo on back to back pitch counts of over 100 is a very below avg pitcher...at the most he will be gone sometime in the 6th tonight..

looking at red sox bp usage last 4 days..they have effectivley:

schourek
kim
pichardo

to go on tonight...not good...if they use beck/lowe combo...they are meat...

looking for tb to score 2 or 3 off nomo in first 6+ innings then getting 3 runs in 7th,8th and 9th...

lopez even though his line didn't look good vs the yankees last game was throwing decent enough...and will probably churn up some innings no matter how hard he is getting hit...

tb is swinging some sticks right now....

tb +200 and
over 9.5


could be worth a strong look...i think you have 70% chance rays score 5 runs tonight...

still waiting to check lineups...

 

[Nick Douglas]

It may depend on the lineups but I see a good performance coming from Lopez tonight. Like IE said he looked better than his stats last time out. He is in a contract year so a good July may mean a trade to a contender, maybe postseason, and maybe $8 mil+ next year. No guarantee of success, but he has incentive to turn it up huge tonight.

I see Tampa getting runs. To me the safer bet here is Tampa but the over may not be bad, either. Good luck, guys.

 

[Investment Executive]

grab a snickers....red sox are not going to go anywhere in the near future:
=======

Red Sox put Martinez on DL, activate Florie
By JUSTIN POPE
Associated Press Writer
June 27, 2001


BOSTON (AP) -- Pedro Martinez was placed on the 15-day disabled list by the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday with inflammation in his right shoulder.

The team also activated right-hander Bryce Florie, who is attempting to come back from being struck in the face by a line drive last season.

Martinez underwent tests on his throwing shoulder Wednesday at the University of Massachusetts Medical Center in Worcester. Manager Jimy Williams said the results on the three-time Cy Young Award winner's tests are expected Thursday.

``We all just have to be patient here, wait for the results and determination from the medical corps and go from there,'' Williams said.

Martinez, who hasn't had a win since May 30, gave up four runs in less than five innings in Boston's 7-6 victory over the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on Tuesday.

``Just watching him pitch, maybe he took a couple detours, not bringing his overpowering stuff,'' Williams said.

Williams said Rolando Arrojo will take Martinez's spot in the rotation.

Meanwhile, Florie will move into Boston's bullpen a day after he said he thought his days with the Red Sox were over. The team offered Florie a rehabilitation assignment at Triple-A Pawtucket on Tuesday, and Florie said he would likely refuse it because he was ready to pitch in the majors.

He also complained that the team and general manager Dan Duquette had communicated poorly with him throughout his nine-month rehabilitation.

``It's unfortunate an injury had to open a spot, but it's also unfortunate I had to go through what I had to go through because of an injury,'' Florie said.

Florie was hit in the right eye by a line drive off the bat of the New York Yankees' Ryan Thompson last Sept. 8.

 

[pepin46]

i do agree there is just a slight glimmer of hope here for albie, it is just hard to see how he can avoid 5-6 runs, even if he can stretch it to 8 innings.

his bb/hits per inning dropped in that last game to 1.25 or so, quite a change from his long-term average, and still he got hammered for 6/5earned in 7 innings. this was his stellar performance in the last 2 months, excepting the 3 inning outing for 0 hits/runs. what was that about?

still, it is quite optimistic to expect an encore here, as there are just too many games in a row of that terrible performance.

also, you must get a pretty bad performance from nomo and/or a breakdown in the boston bullpen in order for everything to fall in place. but i suppose if the parlay is attractive enough, it may be worth a small play as well.

stats aside, tampa gives a bang for the buck, but too many are lost by 1 run. close but no cigar. they are a good sunday team, though, especially at home.


pep

 

[phoenix566]

I like the odds of this game going over. It would set-up tomorrows matchup between Castillo and Kennedy as a theory-under play.

 

[Nosigar]

Any under thoughts should first consider Mr. Rolando Arrojo. He pitched last night, so I doubt he will be in tonite, unless Nomo gets hit in the shin in the 3rd.

[This message has been edited by Nosigar (edited 06-27-2001).]

 

[Investment Executive]

that was not a parlay pep...

it was 1 unit on each....

 

[pepin46]

all is well that ends well.

i.e., yes i understand you noting the difference, as it is a common mistake most of us make, thus ending up with nothing most of the time.


pep