I know people are going to be all over me, but this warrants looking into wether you dislike big chalk or not. A WIN IS A WIN so I just wanted to see how good my odds of winning are laying this big chalk!
Trends and Facts to start:
-TB is 0-5 in game four of a series overall.
-Tampa Bay is 2-14 in their last 16 away.
-BOS has won Martinez' last five starts vs. TB.
-BOS is 9-2 this year against the Devil Rays.
-The over is 5-0 in TB's last five overall.
-The under is 6-2 in Martinez' last eight starts.
-The 'over' has cashed in the last six games for Tampa Bay, and the last five outings for Boston.
-All games in this series since 1997
-BOSTON is 42-24 (+1.7 Units) against TAMPA BAY since 1997
-38 of 64 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997. (Under=+9.4 Units)
-Games over the last 3 seasons
-BOSTON is 29-12 (+8.2 Units) against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
-19 of 40 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-4.4 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)
-All games at BOSTON since 1997
-TAMPA BAY is 12-20 (+0.2 Units) against BOSTON since 1997
-17 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997. (Under=+0.8 Units)
-Games played at BOSTON over the last 3 seasons.
-BOSTON is 14-6 (-0.1 Units) against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
-10 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-1.7 Units, Under=-0.8 Units)
TAMPA stats:
in all games 31-68
games played on a grass field 11-28
in July games 3-16
in night games 18-47
in road games 13-37
on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 =6-7
vs. division opponents 2-5
vs. right-handed starters 27-55
when playing against a team with a winning record 16-35
when playing on Thursday 4-11
when playing with a day off 6-6
BOSTON stats:
as a home favorite of -300 or more 4-1
at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 8-4
in all games 58-41
in games played on a grass field 46-38
in home games 25-22
in July games 12-9
in night games 40-26
vs. division opponents 5-6
vs. right-handed starters 44-35
when playing against a team with a losing record 37-17
when playing on Thursday 8-2
when playing with a day off 9-6
PITCHING:
Tampa Bay
Luis De Los Santos was lit up by Toronto in his lone start as a $1.75 road underdog, 12-10. The right-hander was reached for nine runs (eight earned) on nine hits in just four innings. He brings in aWHIP of 2.5 and an ERA of 18.00. His only start this year was a day game so there are no night time stats.
Boston
Pedro Martinez brings in an overall WHIP of 0.98 and ERA of 2.65.
His last three starts he is 2-0 (team 2-1) while pitching 18.1 innings allowing 11 hits carrying an ERA of 1.47 and a WHIP of 0.98.
He is 6-1 this season at Fenway Park with a 3.76 ERA and a WHIP of 1.109 in 9 games and 55 innings while allowing 23 earned runs.
This year Pedro is 4-0 against Tampa giving up a total of 7 earned runs and 39 strike outs.
Martinez went 2-0 last year against Tampa Bay in four starts, yielding a combined eight runs (seven earned) on 20 hits with five walks and 39 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings. The 'over' went 3-1 in those outings.
Since 1997 Pedro is 5-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.36 and a WHIP of 0.859. His team's record is 8-2 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.2 units)
Pedro brings in a night time record of 6-1 with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 0.96. His opposition batting average is .216 while giving up 50 hits with 20 earned runs, 6 homeruns, 69 strike outs in 62.1 innings pitched!!!
This gives Pedro a runs against average of 2.56 while having an average for of 5.56 at night time.
ADV: BOSTON (HUGE)
BULLPENS (AVAIL. ONLY)
Tampa Bay
They have a more experienced available BP combining for 189.2 innings pitched with an ERA of 4.98 and a WHIP of 1.48.
Boston
They bring in a BP with a combined 57 IP with an ERA of 5.05 and a WHIP of 1.39.
ADV: T.B. (MINOR)
My main concern is how long will they leave Pedro in for. He has an average of 6.1 innings pitched in his last 10 starts going 8 innings three times in his last 10.
HITTING: (both are vs. righties)
Tampa Bay
Devil Rays are averaging .252 with an OBP of .312 and a slug % of .377.
Red Sox are averaging .277 with an OBP of .344 and a slug % of .443.
(vs. lefties for BP purposes)
If either team puts a lefty in out of the bullpen then Tampa's avg. drops to a .219 and OBP drops to a .278 while Boston's avg. rises to a .288 and their OBP rises to a .357.
ADV: BOSTON (MEDIUM)
UMP
Mike Everitt
This year he has a home team record of 7-14 and with a home favorite of -185+ record of 0-2. His strike % is 62.2% which favors Pedro BIGTIME. Pedro has much more control over his pitches and will use this big strike zone to his advantage. His average runs broken into innings goes like this:
Innings 1-3 4.10
Innings 4-6 4.14
Innings 7+ 2.19
This shows that most of the hitting is done while the starters are in!
ADV: EVEN (cause of the homefield disadvantage for Boston)
All this said I have to say I think Boston is a good bet. I think they get the split (something I never thought I would say) here in Boston with the Devil Rays. I have seen them -1 1/2 -205 and at -2 1/2 -135 as wel as -a shitload on the RL too. Inkow it's a heavy favorite and everyone thinks this is a no brainer to say take the Sox but I am putting my money where my mouth is and just wanted to give reasoning why.
GL & PEACE, HAIL
Trends and Facts to start:
-TB is 0-5 in game four of a series overall.
-Tampa Bay is 2-14 in their last 16 away.
-BOS has won Martinez' last five starts vs. TB.
-BOS is 9-2 this year against the Devil Rays.
-The over is 5-0 in TB's last five overall.
-The under is 6-2 in Martinez' last eight starts.
-The 'over' has cashed in the last six games for Tampa Bay, and the last five outings for Boston.
-All games in this series since 1997
-BOSTON is 42-24 (+1.7 Units) against TAMPA BAY since 1997
-38 of 64 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997. (Under=+9.4 Units)
-Games over the last 3 seasons
-BOSTON is 29-12 (+8.2 Units) against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
-19 of 40 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-4.4 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)
-All games at BOSTON since 1997
-TAMPA BAY is 12-20 (+0.2 Units) against BOSTON since 1997
-17 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997. (Under=+0.8 Units)
-Games played at BOSTON over the last 3 seasons.
-BOSTON is 14-6 (-0.1 Units) against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
-10 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-1.7 Units, Under=-0.8 Units)
TAMPA stats:
in all games 31-68
games played on a grass field 11-28
in July games 3-16
in night games 18-47
in road games 13-37
on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 =6-7
vs. division opponents 2-5
vs. right-handed starters 27-55
when playing against a team with a winning record 16-35
when playing on Thursday 4-11
when playing with a day off 6-6
BOSTON stats:
as a home favorite of -300 or more 4-1
at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 8-4
in all games 58-41
in games played on a grass field 46-38
in home games 25-22
in July games 12-9
in night games 40-26
vs. division opponents 5-6
vs. right-handed starters 44-35
when playing against a team with a losing record 37-17
when playing on Thursday 8-2
when playing with a day off 9-6
PITCHING:
Tampa Bay
Luis De Los Santos was lit up by Toronto in his lone start as a $1.75 road underdog, 12-10. The right-hander was reached for nine runs (eight earned) on nine hits in just four innings. He brings in aWHIP of 2.5 and an ERA of 18.00. His only start this year was a day game so there are no night time stats.
Boston
Pedro Martinez brings in an overall WHIP of 0.98 and ERA of 2.65.
His last three starts he is 2-0 (team 2-1) while pitching 18.1 innings allowing 11 hits carrying an ERA of 1.47 and a WHIP of 0.98.
He is 6-1 this season at Fenway Park with a 3.76 ERA and a WHIP of 1.109 in 9 games and 55 innings while allowing 23 earned runs.
This year Pedro is 4-0 against Tampa giving up a total of 7 earned runs and 39 strike outs.
Martinez went 2-0 last year against Tampa Bay in four starts, yielding a combined eight runs (seven earned) on 20 hits with five walks and 39 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings. The 'over' went 3-1 in those outings.
Since 1997 Pedro is 5-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.36 and a WHIP of 0.859. His team's record is 8-2 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.2 units)
Pedro brings in a night time record of 6-1 with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 0.96. His opposition batting average is .216 while giving up 50 hits with 20 earned runs, 6 homeruns, 69 strike outs in 62.1 innings pitched!!!
This gives Pedro a runs against average of 2.56 while having an average for of 5.56 at night time.ADV: BOSTON (HUGE)
BULLPENS (AVAIL. ONLY)
Tampa Bay
They have a more experienced available BP combining for 189.2 innings pitched with an ERA of 4.98 and a WHIP of 1.48.
Boston
They bring in a BP with a combined 57 IP with an ERA of 5.05 and a WHIP of 1.39.
ADV: T.B. (MINOR)
My main concern is how long will they leave Pedro in for. He has an average of 6.1 innings pitched in his last 10 starts going 8 innings three times in his last 10.
HITTING: (both are vs. righties)
Tampa Bay
Devil Rays are averaging .252 with an OBP of .312 and a slug % of .377.
Red Sox are averaging .277 with an OBP of .344 and a slug % of .443.
(vs. lefties for BP purposes)
If either team puts a lefty in out of the bullpen then Tampa's avg. drops to a .219 and OBP drops to a .278 while Boston's avg. rises to a .288 and their OBP rises to a .357.
ADV: BOSTON (MEDIUM)
UMP
Mike Everitt
This year he has a home team record of 7-14 and with a home favorite of -185+ record of 0-2.
His strike % is 62.2% which favors Pedro BIGTIME. Pedro has much more control over his pitches and will use this big strike zone to his advantage. His average runs broken into innings goes like this:Innings 1-3 4.10
Innings 4-6 4.14
Innings 7+ 2.19
This shows that most of the hitting is done while the starters are in!
ADV: EVEN (cause of the homefield disadvantage for Boston)
All this said I have to say I think Boston is a good bet. I think they get the split (something I never thought I would say) here in Boston with the Devil Rays. I have seen them -1 1/2 -205 and at -2 1/2 -135 as wel as -a shitload on the RL too. Inkow it's a heavy favorite and everyone thinks this is a no brainer to say take the Sox but I am putting my money where my mouth is and just wanted to give reasoning why.
GL & PEACE, HAIL
