TAMPA vs CHIEFS LINE

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Jord20

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Cassell vs Quinn probably doesn't account for 1 point in the spread, IMO. People always overrate how much 1 person moves a spread. Even quarterbacks.

I still like Tampa to roll this pathetic team though
 
the addict

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I would agree jord that missing players is not always as significant as the public likes to believe...

But as far as qbs not moving lines, I would say that about 15 quarterbacks could move a line by 4-5 points with the announcement of a injury or suspension if they weren't going to play....


Like I said I agree for the most part jord, but these guys are the exception...

if the line was -7 for the game,

And


Brees
Brady
Rodgers
Manning
Manning
Vick
Ben
Ryan
Schuab
Rivers
Stafford
Cam
Flacco
Luck
Dalton

Any of them went out, it would move towards -2ish in a day...so while most players wouldn't warrant a move, there are a few who totally do...



Now, cassel maybe doesn't warrant a 1 point swing...


But he is a better nfl qb then quinn....I think it has to atleast be ackowledged when capping this game...

The chiefs strength is running the ball....

With cassel gone and quinn in, they will 100% bring more pressure and load the box more often then they would have initially with cassel in....they would've loaded the box regardless, but I see much more aggressive play from tampa now...


Gl to ya all I am layin off this game...
 
B

Billy in 4C

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thunder seems to love this one, so ill take my chances trailing him
 
the addict

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Jord20 said:
Some guys on that list wouldn't move a line 2 points, let alone 5
Click to expand...

So if any of those teams were 7 pts favorites, and the above named qb was ruled out, your tellin me line wouldn't drop to 3?



Don't see any team above where that wouldn't be the case....I admit I have no data to back this up, I just can't see any of those teams being a td fav with their backup qb in?????


U could be 100% correct....I just can't imagine it
 
stockjockey

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the addict said:
So if any of those teams were 7 pts favorites, and the above named qb was ruled out, your tellin me line wouldn't drop to 3?



Don't see any team above where that wouldn't be the case....I admit I have no data to back this up, I just can't see any of those teams being a td fav with their backup qb in?????


U could be 100% correct....I just can't imagine it
Click to expand...

IMO, you're both right. The pointspread does indeed move based on who the starting QB is. Look no further than this as an example. Last year's AFC playoff game between Pittsburgh at Denver. Denver was an 8.5 point dog to Pitt with Tim Tebow as the QB. However in Week 1 with Pittsburgh at Denver and Peyton Manning at QB the line was Denver -2.5.

However, remember the pointspread is not a prediction. It is a number that represents mostly public opinion, and IMO one can find value if oddsmakers move the line too much for a given QB change. If the Bucs line moved to 5 or 6 based on Quinn starting, that presents value to me because I don't see that much of a drop off there.
 
the addict

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the addict said:
Already from 3 to 4


I know cassel wasn't lighting it up, but this guy has lead 2 teams to the playoffs and was a big part to the patriots winning 11 games in a season...


I know he hasn't been great, but come on how can anyone say the switch from cassel to quinn isn't a downward one....

I'm not sayin kc isn't as good all around as tampa, and maybe that's why the line hasn't moved much, but to say quinn and cassel are both equal in talent is incorrect...

From 3 to 4 and will hit 5 by kickoff....

Quinn is terrible....




That being said, I bought outta this game....

Takin chiefs +4.5 on the buy to have a shot at a middle..

Nolonger bettin this with injuries....quinn sucks but chaarles could run wild...like I said, kc may be better at every other position....


The line isn't movin much, maybe that's cause the cheifs win, but not because of brady quinn replacing cassel....
Click to expand...

shuold of never bought out of original one like stated above...


fuckin talked myself right outta free money


brady quinn will be a good fade all year
 
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