Tar Heel Gameday 11/18

[saint]

UNC games YTD: 5-1 +9 units


I'm at school right now so I don't have time for an explanation, but after some thought I think this line is way off. I think this should be 10+ points, but the line is so off it's one of those spreads that makes you hesitate a bit as if you were missing something. I will have a write-up when I get home from my root canal class

I will say that I think this line is what it is largely from the fact that we put up numbers on them last season. I'll elaborate later.

 

[bgold13]

astate put up 650+ yards of offense as well, but turned it over 5 times and missed 4 field goals

 

[hoff0214]

davey sorry i have not got back to you yet.i got killed last weekend so you did not want to talk to me.when you get a chance give me a buzz this weekend.

 

[saint]

astate put up 650+ yards of offense as well, but turned it over 5 times and missed 4 field goals

I wasn't really making a point about that, I know ASU put up a ton of yardage against us last year. I was simply trying to justify in my mind at least possibilities why the books have this line so low. If you have any ideas why, I would like to hear them. All that I can come up with is so far on the road ASU hasn't played well, they do let up a lot of yardage on D, UNC's d was a little better against ECU. Other than that I'm not too sure why it's not more.

Opinions?

 

[budhachi]

Why line is soooo low!!!

Why line is soooo low!!!

ASU has only put up 19 total points on the road! It was against Iowa and Ore St., though...just some imput

gl budha

 

[bgold13]

actually under dirk koetters 3 years asu has been beyond horrible on the road... off the top of my head I can only remember wins at san diego st, oregon and arizona. That is the reason for the 5.5 point line. THere is no question that ASU can score WHEN its clicking, the question is, is the defense as good as I think. I think they have a very very good secondary, last year the number 2-5 cb's were out practiclly all season.
If ASU can get going on the road they should roll, if not it should be close

 

[saint]

I just bought back my play, UNC +6.5.

I changed my mind about this game, I'm sorry if you played it because of me. I'll probably not play, or I might be playing a half unit on UNC or UNC moneyline.

Good luck

 

[ND2002HORNS]

GL! Glad I could you help you on the Sens play last night, hope you made alot of $$$

HORNS

 

[loophole]

i'm staying with asu -5-, even though you've made me a little nervous as you've had a much better handle on the heels this year than i have. i expected them to break through with a better effort the cavs. failing that, i give them little credit for the ecu win as i know how bad the pirates are. asu is coming in with the extra focus occasioned by last year's home loss; it's just hard for me to see carolina matching their effort.

 

[onelostrebel]

Much to my chagrin I must agree with loophole, don't expect the Heels to win again this year.

 

[loophole]

btw, didn't i read where the heels have another db ou this week? i know it struck me as not the best thing to happen with asu coming to town.

 

[saint]

Yeah, in a way I wish I hadn't bought back that play, but you know it's a sign that you are getting more mature as a capper when if you don't feel too strong on a play, you can buy it back. I've been on the best run of my life, don't want to kill it with a play im not totally confident with.


One thing I definitely did not like was ASU cannot play on the road. And we are not talking about just this year, we're talking about the last 3+ years. And this is quite a road game for them...3 time zones later they are in Chapel Hill.

Second, this is also an anti-consensus play. Everyone I've seen is on ASU, for reasons that I agree with, but the line hasn't budged that much and the books aren't that stupid.

And the most important reason why I will take a stab on the Heels ML today...the passing away of Tar Heel Legend Choo-Choo Charlie Justice. People outside of North Carolina won't know much about him, but Loop if you grew up in NC you must know the legend. He died yesterday, the game will have his number 22 painted on each 22 yard line, and special commmemorative programs etc. In his spirit we will be victorious today.

Lastly, its homecoming. Maybe those damn Heels will give us a home win for the first time in forever. Playing Heels +225 or so ml for a half unit.


Good luck today guys

 

[saint]

Last consensus I just checked was 90% on ASU half unit unc+7

 

[hoff0214]

good luck today david.you are probably on the right side.give oklahoma st a try today.i will speak to you.

 

[treynolds]

how about the total o/u 58???

Can either team stop each other through the air.

ive seen both teams play and walter hasnt been impressive in the games ive watched. But i know carolina has a weak enough defense that he should be able to move the ball well against them.

Any one else have any imput on the total?

 

[saint]

Honestly, that was the straw that broke the camel's back. As much as this team lets me down, this one takes the cake. We're up 4 with 45 secs left, 3rd and 1 and we can't even punch it for a first down to win the game. We punt, they drive 55 yards in 36 seconds to set up a play on our 5 yard line, 3 secs left. They throw a TD into the corner, end of game.


Honestly, I hate to get too confident but I can pick these games every week. In the next few weeks, I will be loading up and putting my entire profit from this season on one of the games. Keep a very close eye on the Clemson line next week. After such an emotional loss this week, heading into death valley against a resurgent Tigers team, we are ripe for a good ol' ass-woopin.


Today: 1-1 even (got greedy w/ the ML should have just taken the points.


YTD: 6-2 +9 units

signing off, a depressed heels fan