Tar Heel Gameday 11/24

[saint]

UNC Picks YTD: 3-0 +3 units


Well, for the 1st and probably only time in my life, I am fairly confident that I personally caused a line shift of 1 point at pinnacle. The line for our game for Davidson came out tonight, I placed my wager taking UNC -18, came back a few more minutes to put more money on it, and the line was -19 I never thought I'd see the day.


Anyways, the Heels travel to Davidson for their 1st road game of the season. They played extremely well Sat night against JMU. JMU hit 3 three's in the last minute against our scrubs, or else we would have held them to 55ish points. The defense was absolutely ferocious, the players played unselfishly, Sean May looked unstoppable. Last year, without Sean May and without the discipline instilled by Roy, we beat Davidson at home by 15 points. Although this is on the road, I don't think it will be a factor as there will be plenty of Tar Heel faithful in attendence. We haven't forgotten two years ago when Davidson beat us, and the players will likely take any opportunity to run this one into the ground. Think this line is too low, I expect a cover. I will probably have some more plays once more lines come out (totals etc)

Pick: UNC -18 -105 2 units

Good luck everyone

 

[saint]

Another note of significance: Davidson lives and dies off the 3 pointer (56 attempts in 2 games this year). Against Texas Tech in their opener, they struggled from the 3 pt line, and they ended up losing by 31 as a result. We have a very quick defense that played very aggressively in our opener, from the outside on in. I think with our quickness on the perimeter they won't get many good looks, something else that makes me like this game even more.

 

[RightAngle]

UNC is at home in this game.

I agree they looked great in their season opener. Seems to be a buzz in the crowd with Roy Williams at the helm.

If they come out with a similar performance should be a 20+ point win.




Edward

 

[gman2]

honestly, i think this one is davidson or pass.

as far as the davidson revenge angle:
1) if there was revenge to be had, it was last year
2) also, basically nobody on this roster (save for williams) was around for that davidson loss if im not mistaken. and the coaching staff is different. im sure they will take davidson seriously, but i dont think theyll necessarily try to exact revenge for 2 yrs ago with a rosterful of kids who werent involved.

carolina looked solid the other night. but davidson seems to take the in-state david v. goliath approach. smaller in-state schools are always tough to hammer just because its so much more important to the dog than the favorite.

that being said, davidson was pathetic vs texas tech. although tech and carolina are two very different teams in terms of style and physical play. as much as i want to grab the points, i will pass until at least halftime. maybe carolina jumps on em early and a 2h shot will open up.

with this game being on a neutral court, id be surprised if carolina opened a can on 'em. these are never easy gms for favorites. and carolina hasnt exactly imposed their will on davidson in recent years and those games were in the dean dome.

thats just my opinion. ive been wrong before (and dead wrong for that matter on the tech/davidson game last week). just the way i see it though

gl

 

[freelancc]

good luck Saint...

 

[Send it in]

Where's this game at? home , davidson, or neutral. If neutral, where at? thanks.

 

[Heyward]

Where's this game at? home , davidson, or neutral. If neutral, where at? thanks.

NEUTRAL: Charlotte Coliseum, Charlotte, NC

 

[hoff0214]

got your call about the game last night late so i did not call you back .but i will probably give it a good shot.i like it and i know you are right on in carolina sports.will try and call you later.good luck saint and keep up the solid work.

 

[saint]

I appreciate your input Gman. If you will read my post, I stated several reasons why I think UNC will cover tonight. The revenge factor was probably the last one listed as I know it is weak.

The revenge factor as a whole is stronger just in general this entire season. The players and fans obviously know that UNC has a target on its back when playing other teams. However, we basically were just pissed on the last 2 years by some teams, not just beaten. I'm not saying that this applies to Davidson, but to every opponent we play as a whole, these players will never forget losing like they did and will take it out on any team, no matter who they are playing.

The game is in Charlotte, my mistake. Even better for the Heels, will be plenty of excited fans in the charlotte area to see the roys boys play.

 

[gman2]

saint:

my point was that almost nobody on carolina's roster or coaching staff was around when they had their 8-20 season (or whatever the exact record was) two years ago. so when you say "these players will never forget losing like they did" -- youre talking about 2 maybe 3 kids on an entire roster (williams and manuel) that were even around to experience it. and the coaching staff obviously wasnt there. carolina has so many freshmen and sophs this year that they werent even a part of the struggles in 2001-2002 season. only 2 of like 15 guys "will never forget the losing". just my opinion.

gl man

 

[saint]

Uh, 2002-2003, 6-10 in the ACC, 16 losses. To teams like Iona, Miami, etc. 2 losses to NC State in basketball. All 5 starters tonight were there last year and will remember losing like that when we lost 10 ACC games so you are wrong in what you said. Not to mention, in talking to a couple players a few days ago and having them tell me how they feel this year, I think it's more than accurate. Also has to do with all of the stuff that went down with Doherty as well. You may read about this team from Ohio and catch the occasional game, and that's not very accurate to gauge a team's emotion in less you see them day in and day out.

And besides, the revenge factor had little to do with this play. As my post indicated.

Good luck with your picks

 

[pwine]

What do you think of the over/under of 151? I like NC but was looking at the total as well

 

[gman2]

saint:

clearly you interpreted my post all wrong. :shrug: it seems youre taking offense to someone offering a different viewpoint.

also, before you start slinging anything about "reading about this team and catching the occasional game", perhaps you should be aware of where jawad williams is from; his high school is a basketball factory right down the street from here and various D-1 players and pre-draft pros workout both there and w/in the area. the acc is a conference that has lots of cleveland-area ties in both football and basketball and ive have had good friends pass through acc programs. perhaps you would be surprised to know that while some players played a large role in the doherty dismissal, there were some current guys who liked playing for him and didnt agree with the decision, although the media would have you believe otherwise.

im off base now. the whole point of my post from before was to offer a counterpoint. i know the team wasnt great last year, but they had their moments and played in the NIT (a huge improvement from the previous year). certainly, the NIT isnt what that venerable program aims for in the preseason, but they did a lot more LOSING the previous year, which was my point (not many players experienced that disastrous season that culminated with doherty playing stall-ball in the acc tournament vs duke)

gl saint. dont take things so seriously that you cant go back and forth on a topic with a point/counterpoint

 

[saint]

If I HAD to play it, I would probably lean to the Under. Our defense is very aggressive this year, and I have a feeling Davidson will try to slow the game down. That's the only way that they can compete, if they slow the tempo to try and stop us from running.

Also, our team and Davidson's coach on our good terms just because of locality and I think Roy might call the dogs off if the game gets too much out of hand.

I think the number is about right, which is why I won't play the total. But like I said, maybe the under but who knows Davidson's game with TTech was very high total.

 

[saint]

Gman,

No problem, debate is good when it's controlled. I didn't mean for an aggressive tone to my post, sorry about that. I certainly appreciated your input and think you make some very valid points on why Davidson might be the play, or at least to hesitate laying 18.

As far as the Doherty thing goes, the press didn't sway me. I'm not bragging about anything, but I have contact with the players a lot as I was an athlete here at UNC and shared a training room with them, and am very tight with someone who sees the team every single day, in the practice and in the lockerroom. So I know what went down with Doherty from someone who was there 1st hand the entire season. He deserved to go although he was a good guy.

 

[gman2]

saint:

thats cool. like i said, i meant nothing negative by my post. anyone who provides thorough information more than has my respect. my main objection was when you threw the ohio reference in there, simply because it was not only unfounded, but it neglects the cleveland/acc pipeline in recent years- especially with jawad williams.

like i said, im not discounting that this program is ready to become an elite program again very soon. and theyre not going to accept losing to in-state teams that are grossly inferior. i was just pointing out that only 2 guys in the rotation were around for the 2001-2002 debacle.

you were referring to last year as well.
my reference was more 2001-2002 season where they were 8-20
thats cool.
and seriously - im not playing davidson tonight, so i hope you hit your carolina play. was just leaning that way is all.

gl

 

[saint]

Adding over 71 1st half

Bought 1 unit back on my 1st play, I forgot I wanted to start out the season w/ 1 unit plays. So...

Final plays:

UNC -18 1 unit
UNC 1st half Over 71 1 unit


Good luck everyone

 

[saint]

2 baskets away from the over in the 1st half

 

[gman2]

good start for carolina. may looks good. most impressive thing is carolinas defense. they havent played this aggressively on defense in quite some time. davidson is starting their offense 35 feet from the basket.

 

[freelancc]

Carolina obviously built to run... as they have good athletes, but i think Davidson is exposing their weakness.. PERIMETER SHOOTING.... so far they are not hitting outside shots.. teams will clamp the ZONE on them... if they don't hit from perimeter.