All Ws for the system last week. Let’s continue. I’ve recalibrated the system to use defenses’ passing TD allowed averages through Week 6.
Thursday, Oct. 10 (8:15 p.m. ET - Amazon Prime)
#1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. NYG (2.2/game): Eagles @ Giants.
-350 1 TD $561.50/$721.92
The Giants have allowed 2.2 passing TDs per game through Week 5, comfortably above your 1.7+ threshold, making Hurts a qualifier. His dual-threat nature (61.8% completion, 1,111 yards, 6 TDs, 4 INTs this season) and Philly’s aggressive play-calling against a porous Giants secondary (28th in pass defense EPA) give him a high floor for at least one TD pass. The -350 price reflects this—implying an 77.8% probability—but it’s not unreasonable given the matchup and Hurts’ 83% TD pass rate in games against defenses allowing 2.0+ TDs since 2023.
But there are a couple concerns: Giants pass rush is decent ( 3.4 sacks/game), which could disrupt Philly’s rhythm if Hurts’ ankle (minor concern) limits his mobility.
I’m thinking of parlaying this with LJ for 1 TD for +120 odds between the two.
Stay tuned
Thursday, Oct. 10 (8:15 p.m. ET - Amazon Prime)
#1. Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. NYG (2.2/game): Eagles @ Giants.
-350 1 TD $561.50/$721.92
The Giants have allowed 2.2 passing TDs per game through Week 5, comfortably above your 1.7+ threshold, making Hurts a qualifier. His dual-threat nature (61.8% completion, 1,111 yards, 6 TDs, 4 INTs this season) and Philly’s aggressive play-calling against a porous Giants secondary (28th in pass defense EPA) give him a high floor for at least one TD pass. The -350 price reflects this—implying an 77.8% probability—but it’s not unreasonable given the matchup and Hurts’ 83% TD pass rate in games against defenses allowing 2.0+ TDs since 2023.
But there are a couple concerns: Giants pass rush is decent ( 3.4 sacks/game), which could disrupt Philly’s rhythm if Hurts’ ankle (minor concern) limits his mobility.
I’m thinking of parlaying this with LJ for 1 TD for +120 odds between the two.
Stay tuned
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