Managed to go 4-3-1 last week (3-3-1 on Saturday and 1-0 on Wednesday).
S. MISSISSIPPI -2.5 TCU
Another big game for TCU as they try to keep their BCS bowl hopes alive and their undefeated record this year. But it's also a big game for S. Mississippi as they can win the conference with a win here and a given win (short of a letdown after this game) against East Carolina next week. And I believe S. Mississippi can get the win here and somewhat easily too. S. Mississippi is an underrated team and I think TCU is a bit overrated. This is a very good match up for S. Miss. While TCU defends the run very well, S. Miss. will look to pass the ball with their 7.4 yps against teams allowing 6.7 yps offense against a horrible TCU pass defense, which is allowing 7.6 yps against 6.5 yps. While TCU is just average rushing the ball, they do throw the ball well, averaging 8.5 yps against 7.1 yps but they'll face an extraordinary tough S. Miss. pass defense, which is allowing just 5.9 yps against 6.8 yps this year. TCU has faced three good passing teams and they allowed UAB to throw for 296 yards at 9.9 yps (UAB averages 7.6 yps), Houston to throw for 434 yards at 11.7 yps (Houston averages 8.1 yps) and Louisville to throw for 459 yards at 9.2 yps (Louisville averages 8.4 yps). The Houston game was the only road game amongst those three games. S. Miss. has faced good passing teams in California and allowed 157 yards at 8.7 yps (Cal averages 7.8 yps), UAB 262 yards at 7.1 yps (UAB averages 7.6 yps), and Houston to throw for 158 yards at 5.3 yps (Houston averages 8.1 yps). TCU has allowed 24, 28 and 55 points against good passing teams. Against teams who can defend the pass, TCU has scored 17 points against Navy, and 13 points against S. Florida, In addition, other than a game where they were 11 point underdogs at home, S. Miss. has destroyed all teams they have played this year at home, winning by 17 over a good Memphis team, 21 over S. Florida, 45 over UL-Lafayette and 14 over Tulane. For TCU, this is really their first true test this year and they have barely escaped against the other teams they have played on the road this year, winning by 3 at Tulane (Yes, they were ahead by considerably more), 3 at Arizona, three at S. Florida and seven at Houston. S. Mississippi qualifies in some terrific situations this week, which are 72-32-0 and 7-3 this year (a home momentum situation) and a revenge situation, which is 157-88-4 and 8-3 this year. TCU qualifies in a negative situation, which actually plays against undefeated road teams late in the year, which is 37-9-0. My numbers, before accounting for the great situations, favor S. Mississippi by three points, giving us slight line value and after the situations are accounted for, give us tremendous value and the fundamentals line up as well. I had TCU last year in this game and got the win and I expect to get the win this year with S. Mississippi. S. MISSISSIPPI 31 TCU 13
YTD 33-37-2 -19.50%
3% S. MISSISSIPPI -2.5
S. MISSISSIPPI -2.5 TCU
Another big game for TCU as they try to keep their BCS bowl hopes alive and their undefeated record this year. But it's also a big game for S. Mississippi as they can win the conference with a win here and a given win (short of a letdown after this game) against East Carolina next week. And I believe S. Mississippi can get the win here and somewhat easily too. S. Mississippi is an underrated team and I think TCU is a bit overrated. This is a very good match up for S. Miss. While TCU defends the run very well, S. Miss. will look to pass the ball with their 7.4 yps against teams allowing 6.7 yps offense against a horrible TCU pass defense, which is allowing 7.6 yps against 6.5 yps. While TCU is just average rushing the ball, they do throw the ball well, averaging 8.5 yps against 7.1 yps but they'll face an extraordinary tough S. Miss. pass defense, which is allowing just 5.9 yps against 6.8 yps this year. TCU has faced three good passing teams and they allowed UAB to throw for 296 yards at 9.9 yps (UAB averages 7.6 yps), Houston to throw for 434 yards at 11.7 yps (Houston averages 8.1 yps) and Louisville to throw for 459 yards at 9.2 yps (Louisville averages 8.4 yps). The Houston game was the only road game amongst those three games. S. Miss. has faced good passing teams in California and allowed 157 yards at 8.7 yps (Cal averages 7.8 yps), UAB 262 yards at 7.1 yps (UAB averages 7.6 yps), and Houston to throw for 158 yards at 5.3 yps (Houston averages 8.1 yps). TCU has allowed 24, 28 and 55 points against good passing teams. Against teams who can defend the pass, TCU has scored 17 points against Navy, and 13 points against S. Florida, In addition, other than a game where they were 11 point underdogs at home, S. Miss. has destroyed all teams they have played this year at home, winning by 17 over a good Memphis team, 21 over S. Florida, 45 over UL-Lafayette and 14 over Tulane. For TCU, this is really their first true test this year and they have barely escaped against the other teams they have played on the road this year, winning by 3 at Tulane (Yes, they were ahead by considerably more), 3 at Arizona, three at S. Florida and seven at Houston. S. Mississippi qualifies in some terrific situations this week, which are 72-32-0 and 7-3 this year (a home momentum situation) and a revenge situation, which is 157-88-4 and 8-3 this year. TCU qualifies in a negative situation, which actually plays against undefeated road teams late in the year, which is 37-9-0. My numbers, before accounting for the great situations, favor S. Mississippi by three points, giving us slight line value and after the situations are accounted for, give us tremendous value and the fundamentals line up as well. I had TCU last year in this game and got the win and I expect to get the win this year with S. Mississippi. S. MISSISSIPPI 31 TCU 13
YTD 33-37-2 -19.50%
3% S. MISSISSIPPI -2.5
