Team Cycle Theory

[taxi driver]

Team Cycle Theory

This is undoubtedly one of my all-time favorite NFL Systems. I posted this at xxxxxxxxx.com in July '99, and as I recall the record at the time was 23-5 ATS since 1980. That year, it followed up with a most impressive 5-0 mark ATS. Then last year it hit rock bottom at 4-5 ATS. It is a 'cycle play' theory of mine and makes all the sense in the world. It is still a concept I am most prepared to back. As you know, I firmly believe in team cycles; so let me state the system and its rationale:

***Go AGAINST an NFL team that lost last week breaking a 4-or-more game winning streak and is now on the road***

Done. Simple enough. Let me re-word it:

***Wait for a team to win 4 games in a row. Now wait for them to lose a game. Once they lose a game (breaking their win streak), now go against them if they are on the road***

You would be shocked at how often teams on a roll--even undefeated teams--will fail to bounce right back after a loss if they are now on the road. I'm talking about some of the best teams to ever play the game. They not only fail to cover, they more often than not lose a second game in a row straight up. Let's take a look at some of the "weaklings" that have faltered at this point, and then I'll state the rationale.

'92 Bills (4-0 at time; went to Superbowl) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 25
'95 Bills (5-1; went to AFC Title Game) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 10
'96 Bills (9-3; went to Playoffs) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 12
'99 Bills (4-1; went to AFC Title Game) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 8
'92 Dall (8-1; won Superbowl) failed ATS & missed spread by 3
'98 Dall (8-3; went to Playoffs) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 25
'97 Den (6-0; won Superbowl) failed ATS & missed spread by 4
'98 Den (13-0; won Superbowl) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 14
'96 GB (8-1; won Superbowl) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 11
'98 GB (4-0; went to Playoffs) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 14
'98 Jax (5-0; went to Playoffs) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 5
'92 Mia (6-0; went to AFC Title Game) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 18
'95 Mia (4-0; went to Playoffs) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 9
'97 Min (6-0; went to Playoffs) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 2 (ooh, a real sqeaker)
'00 Min (7-0; went to NFC Title Game) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 9
'96 Pit (5-1; went to Playoffs) failed ATS & missed spread by 2
'99 Stl (6-0; won Superbowl) failed OUTRIGHT & missed spread by 7

There's a list of 17 winners, and as you can see, there are some strong teams that have fallen to the Cycle System. You could eliminate all of them and still be sitting at 60% with a 15-10 record since 1980. But as it stands, history records it at 32-10 for better than 75% winners.

The rationale is simply this: Things happen in 1's, 2's, and 3's. But you get to that fourth straight, and anything can happen. Once a team wins that 4th straight, they have gone beyond status quo atleast for a short time. Check the numbers for yourself, and you'll be amazed at how few teams muster 4 straight wins. Of course, once a team loses and breaks that streak, they are headed into a downward cycle and we'll look to go against them as long as they are on the road. If they are at home, their downward cycle could be re-ignited by a home crowd, but on the road, the unfamiliarity is bad medicine for a team already headed into a temporary (though perhaps shortlived) slump.

This year's first play came was a PUSH as the young Browns +3 couldn't get past the resurgent Steelers. But we'll keep an eye out for this one and figure it to continue its success...

dave

 

[GM]

Interesting. If I'm not mistaken this system will be in play this week with Chicago too.

 

[bear]

Good Stuff Taxi!
bear

 

[Valuist]

Yep; Chicago does qualify this week.

 

[4bubba]

Great work taxi. It is a trend that does make a lot of sense.

------------------
indecision is the KEY to flexibility

 

[pepin46]

makes a lot of sense.

independently, chi was in a lot of sh....for this week at home, and it happened. their road performance is set to be shaky. it is just a matter of the line itself, although i will assume that it will be biased for chi still.

nevertheless, taking chi as an example: their troubles are starting to show: they show tremendous weakness in pass defense, but solid on the ground. further off. weakness showed against a good defense (clev.) so basically, the stage is set, and other teams are more ready for them now that they have achieved noteriety (and are very beatable).

the point is that there is almost always another road that leads to the same conclusion. i have seen this over and over in many trends brought up at this forum.


pep

 

[Scarecrow]

I identified a similar trend/theory a few years ago wherein a team that has won or lost by 10 or more points ATS (against the spread) for three consecutive games will lose or win, ATS, respectively for their next game. IOW, a team that covers the spread for 3 consecutive games by 10 or more points likely will not cover on their 4th attempt and conversely a team that loses by 10 or more points ATS on 3 consecutive attempts likely will cover their next game. I don't have my notes readily available, but the ATS resulting percentage increases if the team should go 4 in a row in which case you still go against the streak on the 5th game. There have been a few times where the streak has gone beyond 5 but there is no advantage to further following the trend.

I firmly believe that not only does this "system" take into account the probability of a team not continuing their winning or losing way, but it also factors in the betting public's misguided view toward a team's performance.

So far this year 3-0.

Detroit - week 5
Green Bay - week 4
Jacksonville - week 7

Any comments welcome.

 

[4bubba]

It sounds good, but I am sure it will be forgotten when needed. Please post this when you have a play for that week.

------------------
indecision is the KEY to flexibility

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Do you happen to know how many teams were dogs in their game after the 4-game streak was broken.

Have a feeling that we're in unchartered territory with the Bears.

 

[pepin46]

scarecrow

undoubtedly, the bettor's perception of that team becomes worse and worse, and thus the line must keep moving up in relation to the opponent to attempt to half the bets. i suppose the ideal situation is when the other team's perception is going the other way.

other than that, remember that a superior team will not, or rather, should not, waste too much of their time preparing for a game that they have in their pocket.

thus we have the "looking ahead" theory, as the next game is always more important than that one. the other words used to describe these games is "taking it lightly". these, when properly identified, also provide a wonderful money line opportunity, and thus we end up with that other famous cliche "they were surprised" by X team.


pep

 

[Skinar]

What would be slick is if someone could take trends like these posted here, codify them into some sort of knowledge base, then let the knowledge base spit out the predictions for you when the criteria are met. That would be some kinda project.

 

[djv]

In my humble opinion were talking emotion here. Emotion is one of the best ways to beat the spread. That is why many times you may see a team after 3 divs games in a row. Then play a none div team and do poorley. The fire is gone after three tough games.
There was another way years ago and I have not followed this. Any team that scored over 30 three games in a row. Now on road and fav play against. That was a mid 70% play if I remember right. Now if you took the last two things above 3 div games in a row and scored 30 or more in each. Now on road and fav in a none div game. Believe were talking 90%. But your getting this play only 4/5 times a year maybe just 3. There was another way to apply this and get 8 to 10 plays at about 80%. Sorry have to find it and read it. Im going my memory only here. But these are all about emotion. You cant stay high for ever. And as first rule above states. Once you fall many times you do once more before the bounce back. Good post Taxi keeps us thinking.

 

[MrMoney]

Originally posted by Skinar:
What would be slick is if someone could take trends like these posted here, codify them into some sort of knowledge base, then let the knowledge base spit out the predictions for you when the criteria are met. That would be some kinda project.

Skinar,

There are programs out there that do this sort of thing. You can do a search on google.com and locate handicapping software. Micro. Bros. has a football package that I have used in the past. It does a good job of looking at criteria that you build into it. Plus it comes with several formulas built in.

MM

 

[Palmetto Pimp]

Dont forget this angle.
TB -5 2 units

 

[GM]

Originally posted by djv:
There was another way years ago and I have not followed this. Any team that scored over 30 three games in a row. Now on road and fav play against. That was a mid 70% play if I remember right.

I have also heard of this angle, and St Louis meets this criteria this week. It's one of many reasons I am on NE. Not to mention the Rams perform better on the fake stuff, and don't perform as well vs teams with good D. I'm of the belief the Pats D is underrated. AND it's a non-divisional game, AND St Louis had it so easy last week.

All those factors together and I am liking the Pats quite a bit.

The downside - the Rams DO like to put on a show in primetime more than most, possibly lessening the chances that they take this game for granted.

 

[cruisin]

Chicago was mentioned above, and now Tb, so is TB the play for today under this cycle? Thanks, a bit confused.


Never mind, read the angle, play is TB.

[This message has been edited by cruisin (edited 11-18-2001).]

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Bump for Taxi as this theory applies this week

***Wait for a team to win 4 games in a row. Now wait for them to lose a game. Once they lose a game (breaking their win streak), now go against them if they are on the road***

Green Bay is the go-against this week.

Record was 32-10 at the start of the 2001 season
Went 1-2-1 in 2001 and is 1-0 this year, so the record since 1980 is 34-12-1.

 

[Valuist]

BBC-

Thanks for bumping this up. Great angle.

 

[Brick]

Rams

Rams

I believe the Rams qualify as a play against under this trend this week. Sorry I didn't read close enough. They haven't lost yet.

 

[c20916]

BBC you said the record this year is 1-0, but scarecrow has it at 3-0, I didn't check to see if his were correct. does it have to be exactly 4 wins, or at least 4 wins. TB won 5 in a row then lost at NO, and then won at Carolina but didn't cover so assuming scarecrow was right that would make the record 4-0 this year.