Team Totals

[Mr. Poon]

Chiefs Over 9.5 +110 - this is based heavily on their schedule. I think they are last year's Jacksonville, easy schedule, decent team, double digit wins and a playoff appearance.

Buccaneers Over 8 -105 - They may not be a playoff team this year, but they are good enough to be .500 at the minimum.

Charges Under 9 -170 - Man this is pricey as everyone is on the same page with this team. What will Rivers do w/ the starting role? Personally I think teams will load up to take LT out of the game and make Rivers beat them. He may turn out to be a decent QB, but this year he will have some lumps.

Cardinals Under 8 +105 - I'm not on the Arizona band wagon like everyone else. If there is anyone that can mis-manage talent, it's Dennis Green. And adding Edge isn't going to magically improve their running game. Their OL is terrible.

 

[Destructor D]

I really like your calls on KC and San Diego. Heck, the Chargers didn't win over 9 games with Brees last season. Rivers looked terrible in limited play and San Diego still can't stop the pass.

KC might be a little risky, but their schedule makes this play solid. The only scary thing about the Chiefs is Green is fairly old and more likely to injury IMO plus their offensive line is very old (Shields and Roaf nearly retired this past offseason), their WR's are currently below average, and they don't have anyone proven and healthy besides Larry Johnson at RB. If LJ goes down, who is going to step up? The KC defense also needs another cover corner and the defensive line is still suspect. The LB's are improved, but Kawika Mitchell is still a below average MLB.

 

[Mr. Poon]

DD, I think their line and loss of Richardson at FB could be huge factors. Without those, they don't have the dominant running game they have in years past. Hopefully their line contiues to perform well. It is true LJ might not hold up for his first whole season, but the Chiefs have a good scheme and if their line holds up, an average back can look good (remember Blaylock shining momentarily). Their D is suspect, but if they could win 10 games last year, they should at least match that this year.

 

[Destructor D]

Mr. Poon, I'm a Chiefs season ticket holder so I agree, they should win 10+ games. However, they have a first year coach in Edwards and a new offensive coordinator. There will be adjustments to the game plan and it's tough to say how the players react to new roles. Vermiel wanted to score over 35 points a game, but Edwards will stress ball control and not worry about scoring multiple touchdowns.

Good Luck Mr. Poon, I'm rooting for the Chiefs to go 19-0!

 

[Mr. Poon]

DD, I'm a fan of the team too, but really don't think this is a homer play. I know they have a lot of questions going into the season, but still think they are a solid club and will make some noise in the AFC this year.

I'm headed to the road tilts in STL and Pittsburgh this year.

 

[Destructor D]

Good chance I'll got to the St. Louis game this year. Probably pass on Pittsburgh because it will involve flying and airfare is going through the roof.

 

[WayneWonder]

Not here to knock your plays...just offer a contrarian point of view.

Chiefs Under 9.5 wins -129

1. Herm Edwards, IMO, is a hire this team will regret. He never was somebody I saw as a winner, posting a 39-41 reg. season mark in his time with the NY Jets. I think the Chiefs were hoping that he might offer some defensive help, but if that is his strong point than there is a reason for the Chiefs to worry. The Jets have ranked in the top half in total defense only twice in Edwards five-year tenure. His offense has not been much to write home about either. His Jets teams ranked in the bottom 10 offensively in four out of the last five years.]

2. The offensive line and run game has been the strength of this team the past five years or so, allowing the Chiefs to consistently rank amongst the league leader in total offense. Now they are also introducing a new offensive coordinator, Mike Scolari, and they lost a key cog in their blocking scheme, Tony Richardson. Last year, while Roaf was hurt, Tony Gonzo was forced to stay at home more often to help block, limiting both his and Trent Green's numbers. With the way this unit has performed L5 years they have nowhere to go but down.

3. Their schedule includes five teams which made the playoffs last year, including four of the AFC's best. They also have to face six of the top 9 rush defenses (Chiefs were in top 10 themselves) and have an early bye week, Week 3, not a favorable one for a team as old as the Chiefs.

All told I see the Chiefs finishing right around .500 this year, maybe 9-7.

 

[Mr. Poon]

WW, no problem at all, that's what this forum is for.

Your #1 I think is more of a consideration for the Chiefs long-term though. I would agree that at this point, Herm Edwards doesn't appear near consideration of an "elite" coach, and down the road he may prove to be average for the Chiefs, just like he was for the Jets.

#2 - I agree with you and know it is a risk as both DD and I pointed out above.

#3 - I still think their schedule is favorable. 5 playoff teams (6 games due to Denver) is average for an NFL schedule. This is the same amount they had last year. And against top rush defenses, Trent Green does just fine. Last year in 5 games against top 10 rush defenses, Green averaged 270 passing yards.

 

[WayneWonder]

Here are a few other team totals that I like:

Washington Under 9 wins +126
In the last 14 years the Redskins have won over 9 games exactly one time...in 2005. This team looks explosive on paper with Moss, Portis and a top 10 defense. But there is one thing that will hold this team back: Mark Brunell's best days are two year's behind him. 8-8 sounds about right in a division in which each of the four teams has a legitimate shot to win.

Seattle Under 10.5 wins -126
Just playing the numbers game here. Each of the past five losers in the Super Bowl have struggled to a losing record the following season for a variety of reasons. The Seahawks should be no different despite playing in possibly the easiest division in football, save the AFC South.

Minnesota Over 9 wins -111
Minnesota was a perennial underachiever under Mike Tice. Many a time they shot out to a great record in the first half of the season only to crumble as the season wore on. Brad Childress brings offensive expertise from Philadelphia and the other new additions along the offensive line and at RB should help this team reach double-digits in wins. They started last season 2-5 and finished 9-7.

Indianapolis Over 11.5 wins +105
The Colts have won at least 12 games in each of the past three seasons and they play in an easy division which they have owned the past few years. (16-2 L3 seasons) Peyton Manning is worth about eight wins by himself and they should again cruise to about 12 wins or so. They realize that the window for winning a Super Bowl is not open forever and I expect them to be the AFC's best team again this year.

Chicago Under 9 wins +159
This team is Fools Gold. They won 11 games last season based on the strength of their defense but the offense was just awful last season. They cannot seem to keep Grossman healthy for an entire season, have no threat at the WR position besides Muhammed and their top RB from last season is threatening to holdout. This is Minnesota's division to win and I expect a good season from the Lions as well. Consider +159 an early Christmas present from the books.

 

[Superbear]

2006 TENNESSEE TITANS SEASON SCHEDULE


N.Y. JETS Sunday 9/10

at San Diego Sunday 9/17

at Miami Sunday 9/24

DALLAS Sunday 10/1

at Indianapolis Sunday 10/8

at Washington Sunday 10/15
BYE Sunday 10/22

HOUSTON Sunday 10/29

at Jacksonville Sunday 11/5

BALTIMORE Sunday 11/12

at Philadelphia Sunday 11/19

N.Y. GIANTS Sunday 11/26

INDIANAPOLIS Sunday 12/3

at Houston Sunday 12/10

JACKSONVILLE Sunday 12/17

at Buffalo Sunday 12/24

NEW ENGLAND Sunday 12/31

 

[Destructor D]

WayneWonder,

You seem very knowledgeable, but I'm curious why Minnesota won't have growing pains with Brad Childress as coach?

Also, the Chiefs just signed Ty Law so I like the Over 9.5 wins for KC a whole lot more. Surtain and Law form are possibly the best pair of CB's in the NFL.

Mr. Poon, I hope you already took the Chiefs Over 9.5 wins as Pinnacle now has KC at Over 9.5 wins (-105).

 

[Destructor D]

WW,

You can bet Minnesota Over 8 wins @ Pinnacle @ +108 odds... you are getting seriously hosed on Over 9 wins @ -111.

 

[WayneWonder]

Hey thanks for the heads up on the Minnesots price. I have an account at both Olympic and Pinnacle. The lines I posted were for Olympic as Pinnacle did not have anything up at the time, but I played Minnesota over 8. After double checking the line at Olympic I realized I made an error in the number of wins. It was set at 8, not 9. Obviously I still like the over.

 

[Mr. Poon]

DD, I already played that Over. I was considering adding more to the play, but will have to hash it over some with the price change.