Team Win Totals / Dramatic Improvement Usually Followed By Relapse To Old Ways

[GM]

Some of those season win total "bargains" out there may not be the bargain that they appear to be.

I did a little research tonight and discovered what I was already pretty sure I knew: Teams that have a dramatic improvement or regression in form from one year to the next tend to revert back to their earlier form.

I've compared all of the teams in the past few years who had seasons in which they won 5 more (or won 5 fewer) games than the previous season, and checked out what they did in the next season. Here are the results, followed by the teams that meet the criteria going into this year, and their current season win totals courtesy of Olympic....

Teams which improved by 5 or more wins from one season to the next, and how they fared in the following season:

2000
Denver: Won 6 games in '99, 11 games in '00 ... then just 8 wins in '01 (+5 then -3)
NY Giants: Won 7 games in '99, 12 games in '00 ... then just 7 wins in '01 (+5 then -5)
Philadelphia: Won 5 games in '99, 11 games in '00 ... then 11 wins in '01 (+6 then 0)
New Orleans: Won 3 games in '99, 10 games in '00 ... then just 6 wins in '01 (+7 then -4)

2001
New England: Won 5 games in '00, 11 games in '01 ... then just 9 wins in '02 (+6 then -2)
Chicago: Won 5 games in '00, 13 games in '01 ... then just 4 wins in '02 (+8 then -9)
San Francisco: Won 6 games in '00, 12 games in '01 ... then just 10 wins in '02 (+6 then -2)

2002
Buffalo: Won 3 games in '01, 8 games in '02 ... then just 6 wins in '03 (+5 then -2)
Carolina: Won 1 game in '01, 7 games in '02 ... then 11 wins in '03 (+6 then +4 - the exception to the rule!)

2003's Big Gainers
New England went from 9 wins to 14 (currently listed at 10?)
Cincinnati from 2 wins to 8 (currently listed at 8)
Kansas City 8 wins to 13 (currently listed at 10)
Dallas 5 wins to 10 (currently listed at 9)
St Louis 7 wins to 12 (currently listed at 9?)

=======================================

Teams which regressed by 5 or more wins from one season to the next, and how they fared in the following season:

2000
Jacksonville: Won 14 games in '99, 7 games in '00 ... then just 6 wins in '01 (-7 then -1)
San Diego: Won 8 games in '99, 1 game in '00 ... then 5 wins in '01 (-7 then +4)

2001
Buffalo: Won 8 games in '00, 3 games in '01 ... then 8 wins in '02 (-5 then +5)
Tennessee: Won 13 games in '00, 7 games in '01 ... then 11 wins in '02 (-6 then +4)
NY Giants: Won 12 games in '00, 7 games in '01 ... then 10 wins in '02 (-5 then +3)
Detroit: Won 9 games in '00, 2 games in '01 ... then 3 wins in '02 (-7 then +1)
Minnesota: Won 11 games in '00, 5 games in '01 ... then 6 wins in '02 (-6 then +1)
Carolina: Won 7 games in '00, 1 game in '01 ... then 7 wins in '02 (-6 then +6)

2002
Chicago: Won 13 games in '01, 4 games in '02 ... then 7 wins in '03 (-9 then +3)
St Louis: Won 14 games in '01, 7 games in '02 ... then 12 wins in '03 (-7 then +5)

2003's Big Losers
Oakland went from 11 wins to 4 (currently listed at 8)
NY Giants from 10 wins to 4 (currently listed at 7)
Tampa Bay from 12 wins to 7 (currently listed at 9)

=======================================

Summary:
It would appear Olympic is clearly aware of this trend. However, there do appear to be a couple of decent deals on the board, based strictly on past history (not on what is actually going on with the teams in question at the moment).

I think there is value in taking Cincinnati and Dallas Unders. Dallas Unders are usually pretty good value anyways as their numbers are always artificially inflated due to their large, widespread popularity.

If nothing else, hopefully this explains why some of the current lines may look a bit out of whack, and may give someone who is considering betting on an improving team to continue improving a pause for thought.

GM

 

[4bubba]

GM

Good call. I have felt that way also but never tracked it.

The main problem is that there is usually at least a 20 cent middle and you have to wait until after the Super Bowl to collect (plus dont lose the ticket). Thats 7 months. Hopefully you wont need that money to bet during the season.

 

[Pujo21]

Nice write -up... maybe when their record improves so does their strength of opponents..

Also interestingly Dallas plays @ Cincinnati November 7th.

thanks for the info..good stuff

 

[GM]

Actually prior years' results are less important than they used to be in determining opponents. When there were only 31 teams in the league, 4 of the 16 games were decided according to how you finished in the prior season. However, since Houston joined the league that number was reduced to just 2 of 16.

For example, all teams in the AFC East this year will play each other twice (6 games), every team in the AFC North once (4 games), and every team in the NFC West once (4 games). The last-place team from last year (NY Jets) gets to play San Diego and Houston. The first place team though (New England) has to play Indianapolis and Kansas City. Other than that their opponents are exactly the same.

I've also looked at the Strength of Schedule for the coming year, by totaling up the # of wins each teams opponents had (counting division rivals twice, since they play them all twice). There is very little difference this year between the toughest and the easiest schedules...the least difference I've ever seen.

Toughest strength of schedule for the coming year:
Miami (136) (Miami's opponents last year won 136 games)
Arizona (134)
Seattle (132)
Jacksonville (132)
8 different teams tied at (131)

Easiest strength of schedule for the coming year:
Dallas (120)
Philadelphia (121)
Pittsburgh (122)
NY Giants (123)
Cleveland, Tennessee, Tampa Bay (124)

These differences are peanuts. In fact, I'd consider everyone's schedule to be just about even.

As a point of reference, last year the high was 138? (the ? because there was a tie game in the previous season), and the low was 113?. In the past I have seen numbers as high as 147, and as low as 103.

Why's it so even this year? Honestly, I think it's just a fluke.

....

Oh, one more point. I also total up Actual Strength of Schedule, where I go back at the end of the year and total up the number of wins each team's opponents had for the current season. The above numbers are projections, but this number shows just how tough or easy a team may have had it. These numbers vary in range a lot more than the projections.

The teams that had the toughest actual schedules last year:
Buffalo (146)
Houston (146)
NY Giants (142)
Jacksonville (139)
Arizona (139)
Atlanta (138)
Detroit (137)

Coincidence that all these teams struggled last season? Hmmm...

And the teams that had the easiest schedules last year:
Kansas City (107)
St Louis (111)
Carolina (114)
Baltimore, Cincinnati, Minnesota (117 each)
Dallas (118)

Coincidence that every team in that latter list had a good season? Almost every one of those teams exceeded expectations. These are teams that I think may be hard-pressed to equal last year's totals.