Tell my why I shouldn't take Virginia -8?

[Marra]

I'm handicapping this game, and I think it looks too good to be true. That is what scares me. Somebody tell me why I should lay off this game.

N.C. 0-9 ATS at home in their last nine. Are you kidding me?
N.C.'s defense is a sieve.
N.C. has one weapon, Durant, and Virginia defense stops the pass.

Virginia has Schaub back, after he was a little rusty last week. He should be in better form against a pitiful defense.

-8 looks to good to be true. Give me some input.

 

[cooz3]

marra...

first off...north carolina has had a much hrader schedule to date...yes there defense is very bad..but ireally dont see any shame getting crushed by the likes of florid state..or giving up 300 in the air to nc state...

that being said..im not disputing that virginia is a better team...

but on the road in a conf game laying over a td..against a team who no doubt has a bad d but they can score...

plus did you watch that virg gam last week they ??? wake practically handed that game to them...i just dont think they are as strong as some would think...

trends..how about a coule favoring north carolina..

1.) virginia is 0-7 ats away against a conf opponent who is off a conference game...this applies north carolina played nc state

2.) north carolina is 4-1 ats the spread in game 5 last 5 years

and this is one that caught my eye

3.) the visitor in the north carolina series is 3-14 ats in the last 17 games


not trying to change your mind..do what you came out with after capping...but you asked for some reasons not to play virginia...


best of luck

cooz

 

[Marra]

Thanks cooz-

You have me some evidence to backup my intuition. Something doesn't feel right with this game. Sometimes, intuition is better than stats, as we both probably know.

GLTW

 

[cooz3]

i agree 100%....marra

good luck on sat

cooz

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Great stuff guys! GL

HORNS

 

[saint]

Okay, here's my take. To preface, I've attended every Carolina home game for the last 6 years and many away...I feel like I know this team like the back of my hand.


With that said, when the line came out early in the week at -7, I grabbed UVA and put a pretty large wager as far as I'm concerned. I knew the line would move later in the week. On paper, UVA should win this by at least double digits. Our best cornerback broke his ankle to hurt our already horrible d. 3 linebackers will be starting their 1st games as freshman. We suck, we can't stop anything. A healthy Schaub and a decent running game should put up 30 pts minimum against us.

On the other hand, our offense is very, very good. Durant is poised to break just about every UNC record on offense.

Here's a good reason why you might hesitate at this game. UNC is unpredictable, plain and simple. They are unpredictable to the point that someone like myself, who knows this team in and out and put a lot of money on UVA, is thinking of buying back my bet. We will put points on the board. One of these games, we will win a shootout. And it's very possible that this weekend might be that weeked.

For all intensive purposes, UVA should cover. I just have a weird feeling that we will play well and be in this game. All week, something just doesn't sit right about this one. I don't know if I'm buying my bet back yet, but I may do half of it.

Good luck

 

[ozzy]

I don't see Carolina covering in this one. Their defense is just too bad. Add in some bad coaching decisionsby UNC, and a healthy Schuab, and Va. is just too much. Bunting might be a good recruiter, but some of his in game moves have been very questionalble. I think UVA will be motivated for this game because this a big game for them. Everyone in the ACC loves to beat Carolina.