As for Arkansas always playing tough against Texas, the Longhorns are 8-3-1 ATS last 12. Texas is 14-5-1 ATS last 20 after a bye, Nutt/Arkansas terrific as a dog (evidently against everyone EXCEPT Texas) at 19-9-1 ATS past 29 (Steele's trends).
The one thing trend-wise that does stand out to me, is the Texas number after a bye, when I look ahead and see that they have Rice and Tulane coming up before Kansas St and Oklahoma weeks. The Longhorns should be supremely prepared and focused on Arkansas this week.
I don't see Arkansas being able to pass much against the athletes in the Texas secondary, and a turnover or two if behind could make the cover difference here.
Not sure if it merits a play, but mine would have to be Texas or nothing here.