Texas / OU Week

[cole]

NCAA Record: 4-5

Ou/Texas +2.5

Time for a biggie. Got a bad line but I think they win straight up. Will play some ml as well. I am aware that anything can happen in this game but I feel strongly that this is a great matchup for Texas. If there is a strength on this porous defense it is the front four and partially the corners. Linebackers and safeties are extremely raw and basically look lost. Some are blaming Diaz's schemes as the issue and while I agree with this to an extent, I'm also pretty certain he knows a little more about the x's and o's then I do so I'll refrain from being a know it all in that respect. I'm hoping Hicks can at least make it on the field for a few plays to at least coach up the younger guys. -If Oklahoma can run the ball then this game goes down to the end. If they can't, Okafor and Jeffcoat should be able to get into the backfield to harass Jones and cause him to make some bad decisions. I'm confident the corners can island their playmakers. Stills is the only one I'm really concerned about. Diggs will be in his face all night. -The OU O line has been riddled by injuries and I don't think they will be able to control that front. -I also think the undersized D line is just what the Horn O line needs to establish a dominant run game. When the Texas O line struggles it is against big physical lines. OU's isn't. The last 12 RRRs have been decided by the team with the most rush yards so the ability to take advantage of this mismatch is huge. -In recent games where OU overwhelmed Texas it was a result of turnovers. This year's Texas team has been solid holding onto the rock and Ash won't be in over his head like last year which led to picks. And no, we won't have to see Happy Feet McCoy. -Now, OU holds the advantage in place kicking and that is a definite concern in a close game but I don't think it comes into play. At least I hope it doesn't. These are all just my opinions which I hope isn't being driven by any homerism but I feel very confident in this game. This will be the largest wager i have ever made. Feel free to comment and good luck.

 

[LonghornMM]

I think Texas wins straight up too. Good luck on your large wager. I'll be on the Horns myself, but nothing crazy. The Texas defense is horrible. :facepalm:

 

[layinwood]

Cole, I played OU here. I went back and watched the OU KState game and I really under sold OU going into the Tech game. They really played well vs. KState and if you take away some dumb TOs then they win that game. I think as the season goes along that won't look like as bad of a loss because of how good KState is looking.

The big thing on offense is that it took Williams(RB) some time to get comfortable but now that he has the kid is just a beast. He's very fast, runs well but also catches very well. He's a nightmare to cover for a LB on pass paterns.

I also thought their DLine wasn't going to be very good but I was very wrong. They get penetration and make it hard on the QB to get into a good groove. KState was able to nulify it some what because of Kleins ability to run.

I think the Over is a good play in this game. I know some think the Texas D is good but it isn't. Their D gives up 4.7 on the ground and 8.2 in the air per play. They've given up over 30 to the three best teams they've played and IMO OU has at least the equal on O to OSU and Ole Miss and probably a little better. IMO if you like Texas you have to like the over because they're going to have to score atleast 30+ to cover since there's a great chance OU will be in the 30s.

Texas may very well win because this is a BIG game between these two but I don't think I would make my biggest wager ever on a team with a D playing like UTs is currently playing.

 

[cole]

Appreciate the comments guys and I agree with both of you that the Texas defense is not playing well. Not at all. I think it will get better later in the year but up to this point it has been a mess. And I also agree that OU gave the game away against KST. Me and my buddies saw it the same way you did and feel they should have won. I just see advantages for Texas in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Plain and simple. The Texas OL isn't a mauling group but does well against undersized DLs and L Jones is not good under pressure. These are the keys to the game in my kind. Hey, I've been wrong before and will be again but I feel strong about this and I'm taking a shot. It just so happens it involves my team. Go figure. Good luck!

 

[LonghornMM]

IMO, the difference in this game comes down the the Texas running game, which is much stronger than OU's, the OU O-line, which is very shaky with little quality depth, and the Texas D-line, which is big, aggressive, deep and athletic. The Texas D-line should exploit OU's O-line problems. I've already played the Horns at +3.5, which is a gift. Texas wins straight up. :0074

Hook'em!

 

[cole]

IMO, the difference in this game comes down the the Texas running game, which is much stronger than OU's, the OU O-line, which is very shaky with little quality depth, and the Texas D-line, which is big, aggressive, deep and athletic. The Texas D-line should exploit OU's O-line problems. I've already played the Horns at +3.5, which is a gift. Texas wins straight up. :0074

Hook'em!

Bingo! Glad to see we are on the same side man. Good luck this week and Hook'em!

 

[layinwood]

IMO, the difference in this game comes down the the Texas running game, which is much stronger than OU's, the OU O-line, which is very shaky with little quality depth, and the Texas D-line, which is big, aggressive, deep and athletic. The Texas D-line should exploit OU's O-line problems. I've already played the Horns at +3.5, which is a gift. Texas wins straight up. :0074

Hook'em!

UTs running game was better than WVU as well but it didn't make them win. Their D line might be big, aggressive, deep and athletic but they're not that good. I would love for UT to win this game becuase I hate OU more than I hate UT but OUs O-line isn't as bad as you think and UTs d line isn't good.

I agree OU doesn't have depth on their Oline because of some injuries and guys leaving but unless there's an injury they don't need it for this game.

OUs offense is good and Williams is FAST out of the backfield. The difference between OU and WVU and OSU is that OU has a good defense. You take a game Texas lost at home and one they could have easily lost at OSU and add a better defense and I don't see how they win.

 

[LonghornMM]

UTs running game was better than WVU as well but it didn't make them win. Their D line might be big, aggressive, deep and athletic but they're not that good. I would love for UT to win this game becuase I hate OU more than I hate UT but OUs O-line isn't as bad as you think and UTs d line isn't good.

I agree OU doesn't have depth on their Oline because of some injuries and guys leaving but unless there's an injury they don't need it for this game.

OUs offense is good and Williams is FAST out of the backfield. The difference between OU and WVU and OSU is that OU has a good defense. You take a game Texas lost at home and one they could have easily lost at OSU and add a better defense and I don't see how they win.

Wood, Texas does have a very good DL. The problem with the Texas D is their linebackers and DB's, not the DL. This is where I think Texas gets to Landry Jones. Jones does not do well at all under pressure from a pass rush.

I agree on Williams being fast RB, and that does concern me somewhat. Texas struggles to stop anyone's running game. Yes, UT lost to a very good and #8 ranked WV team with a Heisman front runner, but that game could have gone the other way if not for a key missed FG, a couple of bad center snaps and a ill-timed timeout. This Texas team is pissed and they have revenge on their minds after being humilitated last year by OU.

Hook'em!

 

[layinwood]

Wood, Texas does have a very good DL. The problem with the Texas D is their linebackers and DB's, not the DL. This is where I think Texas gets to Landry Jones. Jones does not do well at all under pressure from a pass rush.

I agree on Williams being fast RB, and that does concern me somewhat. Texas struggles to stop anyone's running game. Yes, UT lost to a very good and #8 ranked WV team with a Heisman front runner, but that game could have gone the other way if not for a key missed FG, a couple of bad center snaps and a ill-timed timeout. This Texas team is pissed and they have revenge on their minds after being humilitated last year by OU.

Hook'em!

I think you're underestimating the quality of OUs line. Their depth maybe lacking but they don't sub so unless there's an injury it won't matter. The staring 5 is probably the best in the Big12. If the Dline can't get to Jones on a regular basis then UT is in trouble because I can promise you the LBs won't be able to cover Williams out of the backfield. Texas doesn't have enough really good DBs to stay with all of OUs WRs.

OSU, WVU and Ole Miss don't have the quality at OL that OU does. If UT couldn't stop those offenses then why can they stop OU?

Add to it that OU has by far the best D that UT will have faced.

Yeah UT will be out for revenge for last year and be pissed for losing last week but in all reality you can't include things like that in your capping for games like this. BOTH teams will be as ready to play for this game as any all season so it's not like they can be more fired up than they normally are for OU.

 

[LonghornMM]

OU does not have the best OL in the Big 12. OSU does - by far. This isn't a big play for me though. I think Texas wins, but it wouldn't surprise me if OU wins either. I just think there are lots of chemistry issues on the OU team right now and they'll end up with at least four losses this year. Good luck to you this weekend. We'll have to agree to disagree on this game. :0008

 

[layinwood]

OU does not have the best OL in the Big 12. OSU does - by far. This isn't a big play for me though. I think Texas wins, but it wouldn't surprise me if OU wins either. I just think there are lots of chemistry issues on the OU team right now and they'll end up with at least four losses this year. Good luck to you this weekend. We'll have to agree to disagree on this game. :0008

Wow, first I've heard anyone say OSU had the best offensive line. OSU has a good line but they only had 1 returning starter. That alone would lead me to believe they didn't have the best. They lost 2 all Big 12 lineman from last year. I know OSU is on the way up but for them to still have the best OL after losing those two and two other starters is hard for me to believe. Especially when you consider the guys Texas and OU gets year after year.

OU had a good line last year and didn't lose much. They only gave up 11 sacks all year last year.

 

[cole]

It's early in the season but I agree that the OSU OL has been the most impressive in the conference to date. It's a big reason why they own the top ranked offense in the nation. Btw, according to adjusted stats, Texas has faced 3 of the top 6 offenses in the country (OSU 1, WV 3, and Ole Miss 6). Not an excuse for the Texas defense and the sample size is small but I found this interesting. Also, I think OL depth is very underestimated. Teams in this conference are running 70+ plays a game and OL substitutions are absolutely necessary. We will see a minimum of 2 to 3 series a half where OUs OL depth issues are truly put to test when they use subs. I also think you are underestimating the Texas DL. They lead the conference in sacks and their run stopping ability has been masked by the LB issues. Best in the conference hands down IMO. You do however make a good point about Williams catching the balls out of the backfield. This will be a challenge for the Texas LBs.

 

[layinwood]

Ok, so either team can win. The whole reason I came in to this thread and posted was to try and sway Cole from his largest wager ever made. I don't think a D that's performed as bad as UTs can make a bet worthy of being that big.

Cole, I could be wrong but I don't think OU subs their Oline. Not unless one of them gets hurt.

 

[hedgehog]

over for me number doesn't matter both defenses are not very good

 

[cole]

Wood, I appreciate your input. I've enjoyed the discussion and I value your opinion. No such thing as a lock and if I lose it won't kill me. I'm not having to give up points on a team I think will win the game so I jumped on it. In retrospect, I never should have included the 'largest wager ever made' statement. Even though it's true it sounds arrogant. Not my intent. Good luck

 

[LonghornMM]

Good luck, Cole, I hope you hit it. :0074

 

[jhawksoon]

Ok, so either team can win. The whole reason I came in to this thread and posted was to try and sway Cole from his largest wager ever made. I don't think a D that's performed as bad as UTs can make a bet worthy of being that big.

Cole, I could be wrong but I don't think OU subs their Oline. Not unless one of them gets hurt.

Layinwood you are correct, OU will not sub OL unless an injury issue. They have always had athletic offensive lineman to run the hurry up offense. One of the downfalls of those athletic OL is that they have been a little soft in the running game, not being able to push people around as much. The difference in the game IMO is the overall defense of each team. I think it's a wider margin between the two teams than thought before the season started, and the better defense is OU's. The Texas defense has been a big disappointment and will be the diference in the game.

 

[Sullystud]

Texas by a FG. Book it!

 

[Samson]

IMO the big difference in this rivalry in recent years is the coaching. Stoops is head and shoulders above Brown and I think that has shown often in this game when the two have met over the years

 

[sdf]

Under 61. Texas just played 2 of the top 3 offenses in the big12. They will relish playing a less potent offense. OU has a pretty good defense. Keeping KState at bay despite the turnovers. Dominating TTech. Shutting out the UTEP offense (ok, so not that impressive). Texas should be able to move the ball but it wont be like the last 3 games where they have played poor defenses.

Watching Mack and his coaches flub the WVa game with poor play calling and bad defense, I think Stoops and OU gets another win over the Longhorns. Mack only wins these TX/OU games when he has clearly the better team (with VY and McCoy) and this year these teams are just about even. Coaching wins this. :facepalm:

OU 30-23